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LONDON MARKET CLOSE: European stocks sink amid Middle East uncertainty
- Market Losses: London shares suffered heavy losses on Monday, with the FTSE 100 down 1.2%, FTSE 250 down 1.4%, and AIM All-Share down 0.4%, amid fears of a prolonged Middle East conflict due to US and Israeli strikes on Iran.
- Middle East Conflict: Israeli military launched new strikes on Tehran, marking the third day of joint US-Israeli assaults, with explosions reported in Beirut, Dubai, Bahrain, and Iraq.
- US Stance: US President Donald Trump's administration vowed to continue the course, with Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth stating no US troops are on the ground in Iran but emphasizing readiness to escalate.
- Market Analysis: Barclays analyst Emmanuel Cau warned of continued defensive trading due to Iran's retaliation, unclear conflict endgame, and succession uncertainty after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death.
- European and US Markets: European equities fell sharply (CAC 40 down 2.2%, DAX 40 down 2.6%), while US markets reacted more muted (Dow Jones down 0.4%, S&P 500 down 0.2%, Nasdaq slightly higher).
- Oil and Commodities: Oil prices surged (Brent at $77.92/barrel), boosting BP (up 2.5%) and Shell (up 2.1%). Gold rose to $5,288.00/ounce, and the dollar strengthened.
- Sector Impact: Defence contractors (BAE Systems up 6.1%, Babcock International up 1.7%) gained, while travel and hotel stocks (British Airways down 5.5%, easyJet down 3.0%, Carnival down 8.0%) suffered.
- Corporate News: Beazley gained 1.9% on a £8.2 billion takeover by Zurich Financial Group. Burberry fell 4.7% due to fears of reduced luxury spending.
- Economic Data: UK mortgage approvals unexpectedly declined in January to 59,999, the lowest since January 2024, ahead of Tuesday's spring statement.
- Upcoming Events: Tuesday features the UK spring statement, eurozone CPI figures, and full-year results from Fresnillo and Greggs.
LONDON MARKET MIDDAY: FTSE 100 down, UK mortgage approvals decline
- Stock Market Performance:
- London stock prices mostly lower midday on Monday due to ongoing Middle East conflict and slower UK manufacturing growth.
- FTSE 100 down 1.0% at 10,802.62, FTSE 250 down 1.1% at 23,494.11, AIM all-share down 0.2% at 818.16.
- Cboe UK indices also lower, except for Cboe small companies up 0.3%.
- Economic Data:
- UK mortgage approvals unexpectedly declined in January to 59,999, the lowest since January 2024.
- UK manufacturing growth underperformed in February, with the S&P Global PMI at 51.7, below the flash reading of 52.0.
- UK house prices rose 1.0% annually in February, surpassing consensus, but housing stocks fell.
- German retail sales declined 0.9% in January, worse than expected, but manufacturing PMI returned to expansion at 50.9.
- French manufacturing growth slowed in February but outperformed initial estimates.
- Company Performance:
- Bunzl (FTSE 100) up 2.1% despite lower profits in 2025; reiterated moderate revenue growth guidance for 2026.
- Oxford Nanopore (FTSE 250) down 18% despite 22% revenue growth in 2025; reaffirmed EBITDA breakeven target for 2027.
- Gulf Keystone down 5.9% after halting production in Iraq due to regional security concerns.
- Oil and defence stocks high: BAE up 5.1%, Shell up 2.3%, BP up 2.1%.
- Travel stocks struggled: easyJet down 3.7%, International Consolidated Airlines down 5.6%, Wizz Air down 6.3%.
- Gold up to USD5,394.99/ounce; Endeavour Mining and Fresnillo rose 1.8% and 1.1%, respectively.
- Global Markets:
- European equities lower: DAX 40 down 1.1%, CAC 40 down 1.6%.
- US stocks called lower: Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq down 1.0%, 1.0%, and 1.4%, respectively.
- Brent oil up to USD78.22/barrel; US Treasury yields slightly narrowed.
- Other Highlights:
- Airspace closures in the Middle East disrupting global airline operations, affecting hundreds of thousands of passengers.
- Upcoming economic data: US and Canada manufacturing PMIs.
LONDON BROKER RATINGS: Price targets raised for BP and Shell
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LONDON MARKET OPEN: Travel stocks hit; Iran war disrupts oil shipping
- London Stock Market: Opened mostly lower on Monday, with FTSE 100 down 0.9%, FTSE 250 down 1.7%, and AIM all-share down 0.3%.
- UK House Prices: Nationwide reported a 1.0% annual rise in February, surpassing expectations, with monthly growth at 0.3%. First-time buyer activity improved due to better affordability and easier credit availability.
- Travel Stocks: Declined sharply, with IAG (British Airways) down 6.0%, easyJet down 3.8%, Wizz Air down 6.3%, and WH Smith down 6.9%.
- Middle East Tensions: A drone struck a Royal Air Force airfield in Cyprus, linked to UK allowing US strikes on Iran. Officials plan potential evacuation of 102,000 registered Britons from the region, with 300,000 total in targeted Gulf countries.
- Global Maritime Disruption: US-Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran's retaliation disrupt oil tanker transports and other sectors, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Oil and Defence Stocks: Led FTSE 100 gains, with BAE Systems up 7.9%, Babcock up 2.6%, Shell up 4.2%, and BP up 2.8%. Brent oil rose to USD79.01 per barrel.
- Gold and Mining: Gold prices increased to USD5,408.12 per ounce, with Endeavour up 3.4% and Rio Tinto/Fresnillo up 0.4%.
- Global Markets: Asian markets mixed (Nikkei down 1.4%, Shanghai up 0.4%, Hang Seng down 2.1%), US markets ended lower on Friday, and European equities down on Monday (CAC 40 down 1.8%, DAX 40 down 2.3%).
- Currency Movements: Pound and euro weakened against the USD, while the dollar strengthened against the yen.
- Upcoming Economic Data: Manufacturing PMI releases from the UK, Canada, and the US expected on Monday.
LONDON MARKET EARLY CALL: Stocks down; Middle East conflict escalates
- Market Outlook: London stocks expected to open lower on Monday, with FTSE 100 futures down 0.7% (71.4 points) amid geopolitical tensions.
- Geopolitical Developments: US-Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend, resulting in the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei and other top decision-makers, with ongoing attacks from both sides.
- Commodity Prices:
- Gold surged to USD5,377.71/ounce (up from USD5,235.52 on Friday) as a safe-haven asset.
- Brent oil rose to USD78.91/barrel (up from USD72.71) due to escalating conflict and potential supply risks.
- Currency Movements:
- Sterling weakened to USD1.3377 (from USD1.3458 on Friday).
- Euro dropped to USD1.1732 (from USD1.1818).
- Dollar strengthened to JPY156.99 (from JPY156.05).
- Global Market Performance:
- US markets closed lower on Friday (Dow -1.1%, S&P 500 -0.4%, Nasdaq -0.9%).
- Asian markets mixed on Monday: Nikkei 225 (-1.6%), Shanghai Composite (+0.5%), Hang Seng (-2.0%), S&P/ASX 200 marginally higher.
- Corporate Calendar: Full-year results expected from Bunzl and Smith & Nephew on Monday.
- Economic Calendar: Manufacturing PMI releases across several regions, following UK Nationwide house price data.
- Expert Commentary:
- Pepperstone's Michael Brown highlighted the fluid and fast-moving nature of the conflict.
- Dilin Wu noted increased risk premium, safe-haven asset demand, and potential energy route disruptions, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz.
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