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LONDON MARKET CLOSE: Oil creeps higher amid fragile US-Iran ceasefire
- FTSE 100 experienced modest losses due to growing doubts over the US-Iran ceasefire's strength and sustainability.
- FTSE 100 closed down 0.1% at 10,603.48, FTSE 250 down 1.0% at 22,205.64, while AIM All-Share rose 0.7% to 769.35.
- Two-week US-Iran ceasefire in doubt due to Israel's ongoing attacks on Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.
- International calls for ceasefire to include Lebanon, with EU diplomat Kaja Kallas emphasizing the need for extension.
- Brent oil prices rose to USD97.36 per barrel, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions.
- European equities saw declines, with CAC 40 down 0.2% and DAX 40 down 1.1%, while US markets showed modest gains.
- BP and Shell rose 3.2% and 1.4% respectively on higher oil prices; Standard Life fell 3.5% trading ex-dividend.
- Energean rose 2.7% after receiving permission to resume operations in Israel; ITM Power surged 7.1% on UK government investment and grant.
- Gold prices increased to USD4,791.50 per ounce, up from USD4,753.65 the previous day.
- Upcoming economic data includes China's CPI and PPI, US CPI, factory orders, and Michigan consumer sentiment index.
LONDON MARKET MIDDAY: Doubts on "durability" of ceasefire hits shares
- European equities declined on Thursday due to renewed caution over the fragility of the Iran ceasefire.
- FTSE 100 fell 0.3%, FTSE 250 dropped 1.1%, while AIM all-share rose 0.4%.
- CAC 40 and DAX 40 also fell by 0.8% and 1.1%, respectively.
- Doubts about the ceasefire's durability and ongoing tensions in the Middle East weighed on markets.
- Oil prices rose to USD98.33 per barrel, while gold declined to USD4,737.38.
- FTSE 100 oil majors BP and Shell gained 2.3% and 0.8%, respectively.
- Utilities Severn Trent and SSE climbed 1.4% and 1.1%, respectively.
- Precious metal miner Fresnillo and housebuilder Barratt Redrow declined by 3.4% and 1.8%, respectively.
- Upcoming US inflation data and Federal Reserve minutes highlighted concerns about elevated inflation.
- Sterling fell against the dollar and euro, while the dollar strengthened against the yen.
- Energean shares rose 3.5% on higher oil prices and resumed operations in Israel.
- Riverstone Energy surged 16% on plans to return GBP30 million to shareholders.
- ITM Power jumped 14% on UK government investment and grant support.
- Fast Retailing (Uniqlo owner) raised guidance and reported higher earnings, though shares fell 0.5% in Tokyo.
LONDON BROKER RATINGS: Shell cut to 'neutral'; BofA likes AG Barr
- RBC raises National Grid price target to 1,400 (1,125) pence - 'sector perform'
- RBC raises Severn Trent price target to 3,400 (2,850) pence - 'sector perform'
- RBC raises SSE price target to 3,025 (2,475) pence - 'outperform'
- RBC raises United Utilities target to 1,450 (1,175) pence - 'sector perform'
- Exane BNP raises DCC to 'outperform' (neutral) - price target 6,000 (5,500) pence
- Rothschild & Co Redburn cuts Shell to 'neutral' - price target 3,640 (3,100) pence
- Morgan Stanley cuts Antofagasta price target to 2,880 (2,930) pence - 'underweight'
- Morgan Stanley raises Rio Tinto price target to 6,900 (6,330) pence - 'equal-weight'
- Morgan Stanley raises Glencore price target to 610 (570) pence - 'overweight'
- Morgan Stanley cuts Fresnillo price target to 2,400 (2,690) pence - 'underweight'
- Morgan Stanley cuts Endeavour Mining price target to 4,830 (5,290) pence - 'overweight'
- Citigroup raises Lloyds to 'buy' - price target 114 pence
- Goldman Sachs raises London Stock Exchange price target to 13,010 (12,740) pence - 'buy'
- Berenberg cuts Tritax Big Box price target to 196 (230) pence - 'buy'
- Deutsche Bank Research cuts St James's Place price target to 1,900 (2,000) pence - 'buy'
- Deutsche Bank Research raises IG Group price target to 1,650 (1,600) pence - 'buy'
- Citigroup cuts Entain price target to 1,050 (1,100) pence - 'buy'
- DZ Bank raises Unilever to 'buy' (hold) - fair value 5,250 (5,650) pence
- JPMorgan raises Pearson price target to 1,430 (1,420) pence - 'overweight'
- Peel Hunt cuts Ceres Power to 'sell' (hold) - price target 200 (190) pence
- RBC raises Pennon Group price target to 650 (600) pence - 'outperform'
- Bank of America starts AG Barr with 'buy' - price target 850 pence
- Berenberg starts Wickes with 'buy' - price target 280 pence
- Berenberg cuts Shaftesbury price target to 151 (153) pence - 'hold'
- Deutsche Bank Research cuts Aberdeen Group price target to 225 (240) pence - 'buy'
- Deutsche Bank Research cuts Man Group price target to 280 (305) pence - 'buy'
- Deutsche Bank Research cuts Rathbones price target to 2,200 (2,300) pence - 'hold'
- Deutsche Bank Research cuts Jupiter Fund price target to 175 (200) pence - 'hold'
- Goldman Sachs raises AJ Bell price target to 495 (475) pence - 'neutral'
- Shore Capital raises Devolver Digital to 'buy' from 'hold'
- Berenberg raises Rosebank Industries price target to 450 (440) pence - 'buy'
- Deutsche Bank Research cuts Polar Capital Holdings price target to 790 (860) pence - 'buy'
- Deutsche Bank Research cuts Liontrust Asset Management price target to 160 (165) pence - 'sell'
LONDON MARKET OPEN: Nervy trade on signs of ceasefire fragility
- European equities opened mixed on Thursday, with FTSE 100 outperforming amid ceasefire nerves.
- FTSE 100 added 0.1%, FTSE 250 fell 0.6%, and AIM all-share edged up 0.1%.
- CAC 40 and DAX 40 fell by 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.
- FTSE 100 constituents like Shell and BP showed resilience due to Middle East conflict, rising 0.7% and 1.9%, respectively.
- Brent crude rose to USD97.40 per barrel early Thursday.
- Asian markets were mixed: Nikkei 225 and Shanghai Composite fell 0.7%, Hang Seng down 0.6%, and S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.2%.
- US-Iran ceasefire under strain; UK PM Keir Starmer visited Gulf allies to discuss shipping through Strait of Hormuz.
- Sterling fell against USD and EUR; USD weakened against JPY.
- US GDP and PCE data scheduled for release at 1330 BST.
- Fed minutes emphasized uncertainty and divergence in employment and inflation risks.
- US Treasury yields rose; Wall Street ended higher on Wednesday.
- Gold declined to USD4,715.27 per ounce.
- DCC led gains in London (+2.3%); Ceres Power worst performer (-8.1%).
- ME Group rose 5.9% on new partnership with Asda; Van Elle jumped 55% on GBP58.8 million buyout by Strabag.
LONDON MARKET EARLY CALL: FTSE 100 to outperform amid ceasefire nerves
- London's FTSE 100 expected to extend gains, opening 47.0 points higher (0.5%) at 10,655.88 on Thursday.
- European peers set to open lower: Frankfurt's DAX 40 down 0.3%, Paris' CAC 40 down 0.2%.
- FTSE 100 has been more resilient than European peers during Middle East conflict, losing 2.8% vs. CAC's 3.7% and DAX's 4.8%.
- Asian markets weaker: Nikkei 225 down 0.6%, Shanghai Composite down 0.7%, Hang Seng down 0.3%, S&P/ASX 200 flat.
- Brent crude oil rose to USD96.86 per barrel early Thursday.
- US-Iran ceasefire fragile, with Israel bombarding Lebanon and conflicting demands ahead of talks.
- Sterling fell against USD (USD1.3395) and EUR (EUR1.1485); Euro also weakened against USD (USD1.1663).
- Key economic data releases Thursday: US GDP, PCE at 1330 BST; Germany trade, industrial production at 0700 BST.
- Federal Reserve officials emphasize need to stay "nimble" amid Middle East crisis, highlighting two-sided risks to monetary policy.
- US Treasury yields rose: 10-year to 4.29%, 30-year to 4.89%; Gold declined to USD4,723.91 per ounce.
- Corporate calendar: Full-year results from Metlen Energy & Metals.
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