GASOLINE_US - Ticker AI Digest

[PBF Energy Refinery Close-up] MichaelRLopez/iStock via Getty Images The Trump administration is discussing plans to shield the U.S. Farm Belt from an expected expansion of waivers of biofuel laws, which is under consideration as a way to ‌cut gasoline prices for motorists, Reuters reported this week. Trump is considering a plan that would increase biofuel quotas for the 2027 calendar year by ~500M gallons to offset any damage caused by the soon-to-be-announced exemptions for smaller refineries, which are expected to roughly double from 990M renewable fuel credits to as many as 1.8B, the report [https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/farm-biofuel-groups-urge-trump-curb-expanded-refinery-exemptions-2026-08-27/] said. During Trump's first term, broad refinery exemptions drew fierce opposition from Midwest farmers and ethanol producers while benefiting and winning support ​from oil refiners, and the issue has returned at a time when the administration has sought to lower fuel costs ahead of the November midterm elections. The prospect of a large expansion of refinery waivers had traders anticipating weaker demand for biofuels, sending prices for renewable fuel credits sharply lower earlier this week [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4636426-us-rin-prices-plunge-after-epa-delays-biofuel-compliance-deadline---reuters]. A coalition of farm and biofuel groups urged Trump to reject any waiver expansion, warning that a surge in ​exemptions for small refineries would hurt rural America by undercutting demand for crops and renewable fuels. "The consequences would be severe and immediate," the groups said in a letter to Trump, warning that excess exemptions could cause biofuel markets to collapse ​and reduce demand for corn and soybean ​oil. Trump is expected to meet [https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-meet-refiners-fuel-retailers-iran-war-pressures-gas-prices-ahead-midterms-2026-08-27/] with U.S. refiners and fuel retailers in the coming week to ​highlight efforts to lower gasoline prices. Potentially relevant stocks include Archer Daniels Midland (ADM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ADM]), Bunge (BG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BG]), Green Plains (GPRE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GPRE]), Gevo (GEVO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GEVO]), Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CLNE]), REX American Resources (REX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/REX]), Darling Ingredients (DAR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DAR]), FutureFuel (FF [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FF]), Valero Energy (VLO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VLO]), Marathon Petroleum (MPC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MPC]), Phillips 66 (PSX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/PSX]), HF Sinclair (DINO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DINO]), PBF Energy (PBF [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/PBF]), Delek US (DK [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DK]). ETFs: (CORN [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CORN]), (DBA [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DBA]), (MOO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MOO]) MORE ON VALERO ENERGY, MARATHON PETROLEUM, AND PBF ENERGY * Valero: Downgrading To Hold, Unsustainable Crack Spreads Create A Challenging Setup [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4938206-valero-downgrading-to-hold-unsustainable-crack-spreads-create-challenging-setup] * Marathon Petroleum: Russian Refined Exports May Be Indefinitely Out Of The Market [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4935163-marathon-petroleum-russian-refined-exports-may-be-indefinitely-out-of-the-market] * PBF Energy: From Ukraine With Love [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4930328-pbf-energy-from-ukraine-with-love]

[PBF Energy Refinery Close-up] MichaelRLopez/iStock via Getty Images The Trump administration is discussing plans to shield the U.S. Farm Belt from an expected expansion of waivers of biofuel laws, which is under consideration as a way to ‌cut gasoline prices for motorists, Reuters reported this week. Trump is considering a plan that would increase biofuel quotas for the 2027 calendar year by ~500M gallons to offset any damage caused by the soon-to-be-announced exemptions for smaller refineries, which are expected to roughly double from 990M renewable fuel credits to as many as 1.8B, the report [https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/farm-biofuel-groups-urge-trump-curb-expanded-refinery-exemptions-2026-08-27/] said. During Trump's first term, broad refinery exemptions drew fierce opposition from Midwest farmers and ethanol producers while benefiting and winning support ​from oil refiners, and the issue has returned at a time when the administration has sought to lower fuel costs ahead of the November midterm elections. The prospect of a large expansion of refinery waivers had traders anticipating weaker demand for biofuels, sending prices for renewable fuel credits sharply lower earlier this week [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4636426-us-rin-prices-plunge-after-epa-delays-biofuel-compliance-deadline---reuters]. A coalition of farm and biofuel groups urged Trump to reject any waiver expansion, warning that a surge in ​exemptions for small refineries would hurt rural America by undercutting demand for crops and renewable fuels. "The consequences would be severe and immediate," the groups said in a letter to Trump, warning that excess exemptions could cause biofuel markets to collapse ​and reduce demand for corn and soybean ​oil. Trump is expected to meet [https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-meet-refiners-fuel-retailers-iran-war-pressures-gas-prices-ahead-midterms-2026-08-27/] with U.S. refiners and fuel retailers in the coming week to ​highlight efforts to lower gasoline prices. Potentially relevant stocks include Archer Daniels Midland (ADM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ADM]), Bunge (BG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BG]), Green Plains (GPRE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GPRE]), Gevo (GEVO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GEVO]), Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CLNE]), REX American Resources (REX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/REX]), Darling Ingredients (DAR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DAR]), FutureFuel (FF [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FF]), Valero Energy (VLO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VLO]), Marathon Petroleum (MPC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MPC]), Phillips 66 (PSX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/PSX]), HF Sinclair (DINO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DINO]), PBF Energy (PBF [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/PBF]), Delek US (DK [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DK]). ETFs: (CORN [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CORN]), (DBA [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DBA]), (MOO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MOO]) MORE ON VALERO ENERGY, MARATHON PETROLEUM, AND PBF ENERGY * Valero: Downgrading To Hold, Unsustainable Crack Spreads Create A Challenging Setup [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4938206-valero-downgrading-to-hold-unsustainable-crack-spreads-create-challenging-setup] * Marathon Petroleum: Russian Refined Exports May Be Indefinitely Out Of The Market [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4935163-marathon-petroleum-russian-refined-exports-may-be-indefinitely-out-of-the-market] * PBF Energy: From Ukraine With Love [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4930328-pbf-energy-from-ukraine-with-love]

Investing.com - U.S. stock futures were little changed on Friday after Nvidia's blockbuster earnings reignited the technology rally, with investors now turning their attention to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's closely watched speech at Jackson Hole. Meanwhile, renewed uncertainty over U.S.-Iran negotiations pushed oil prices higher, while PayPal tumbled after takeover talks collapsed. 1. Futures steady after Nvidia-fueled rally U.S. stock futures were little changed early Friday after Nvidia's stronger-than-expected outlook helped lift Wall Street in the previous session. S&P 500 futures was flat, while Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.3%. Dow futures were up 0.2%. Nvidia shares jumped 8.7% on Thursday after the chipmaker delivered a bullish revenue outlook, easing concerns that spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure could be losing momentum. The gains helped lift the broader market, with the S&P 500 rising 0.7%, the Nasdaq Composite climbing 1.6% and the Dow adding 0.2%. For retail investors, Nvidia's results matter because the company sits at the center of the AI investment boom. Strong demand for its chips supports not only Nvidia but also the wider technology companies building and operating AI data centers. 2. Warsh takes center stage at Jackson Hole Attention now shifts to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who is scheduled to deliver the keynote speech at the central bank's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, later Friday. Investors will be listening for clues about how the Fed views persistent inflation and the outlook for interest rates. Recent data have shown that price pressures remain elevated, while Treasury yields have stayed high amid concerns about inflation, heavy government borrowing and the future path of monetary policy. For investors, Warsh's message could have a direct impact on stocks and bonds. A hawkish signal suggesting rates could remain high for longer would likely put pressure on expensive growth stocks, while signs that the Fed is becoming more comfortable with lower rates could provide another boost to equities. 3. Nvidia faces scrutiny over AI financing Nvidia's strong earnings were not the only company development attracting attention. The chipmaker has also paused some deals under a financing program designed to help AI cloud companies purchase its chips, The Wall Street Journal reported. The program, announced less than two months ago, provided credit support to AI cloud companies in exchange for a share of their revenue. Some Nvidia employees reportedly raised concerns about potential antitrust scrutiny. Story Continues The precise reason for the pause remains unclear, and Nvidia could still modify the program. The development adds to growing scrutiny over Nvidia's investments in AI companies that ultimately become customers for its chips. The company has defended these investments, with CEO Jensen Huang arguing that AI startups require unusually large amounts of capital. For investors, the issue is important because Nvidia is increasingly involved in financing the ecosystem that drives demand for its own products. That can accelerate growth, but it can also attract regulatory scrutiny and raise questions about conflicts of interest. 4. PayPal's takeover hopes fade - Bloomberg PayPal shares plunged 12.2% in after-hours trading after a consortium led by Advent International and Stripe abandoned its pursuit of the payments company, Bloomberg reported. The group had reportedly offered $60.50 per share, valuing PayPal at more than $53 billion. PayPal's board considered the offer too low and raised concerns about regulatory and financing hurdles. The collapse is particularly significant because takeover speculation had helped lift PayPal shares from their 52-week low of $38.46 after deal discussions emerged in July. For investors, the sharp decline is a reminder of the risks of buying a stock based heavily on takeover expectations. Once a potential deal disappears, the market has to reassess the company based on its underlying business and growth prospects. 5. Iran uncertainty sends oil higher Oil prices climbed after a report that the Trump administration has told mediators it is no longer interested in returning to a June memorandum of understanding with Iran. The agreement, signed by President Donald Trump at the Palace of Versailles, had provided a framework for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and beginning talks over Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief and access to frozen Iranian assets. According to The Wall Street Journal, Washington has now shifted toward a policy of maximum economic pressure and is not interested in reviving the agreement. The report pushed Brent crude above $88 a barrel and weighed on equity markets as investors worried about renewed disruption to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. For retail investors, oil is important because a sustained rise in crude prices can feed into gasoline, transportation and other costs, pushing inflation higher. That could make it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and could add another headwind for stocks. Related articles Warsh, Nvidia And oil In focus - what's moving markets JPMorgan outlines ten strategic themes that could shape the outlook for 2026 As Claude disrupts stock market, Anthropic researcher warns 'world is in peril' View Comments

For Immediate Release Chicago, IL – August 25 2026 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks and ETFs featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: Nvidia's NVDA, Valero VLO, Lumentum LITE, Monolithic Power Systems MPWR Here are highlights from Tuesday's Analyst Blog: Monster NVIDIA Reports Results: Global Week Ahead What happens across this Global Week Ahead? The world's top central bank chiefs gather in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, against a jittery backdrop Half a year into the Iran war, and With bond markets rattled, by a selloff in long-dated U.S. debt, that prompted U.S. Treasury intervention Away from Jackson Hole, Wyoming, there's plenty else going on, from— Nvidia's latest earnings report, and Inflation readings around the world To a South Korean policy rate decision, and An Icelandic vote, on whether to revive E.U. accession talks Next are Reuters' five world market themes, re-ordered for equity traders— (1) On Wednesday, Nvidia Reports Results After a rocky few days for tech stocks, investors will get a fresh read on the artificial intelligence spending boom that has helped propel markets ‌to record highs when Nvidia reports second-quarter results on Wednesday. The chipmaker, whose processors are central to AI development, is widely viewed as a barometer for both AI investment and broader tech sentiment. Its results could help determine whether enthusiasm for AI remains strong enough to support lofty valuations, after a recent tech selloff driven in part by rising bond yields. Investors will focus on demand from major cloud providers, whose spending has fueled Nvidia's rapid growth. Signs that customers are ramping up AI deployments or spending plans could reinforce expectations that the investment cycle still has room to run. (2) On Wednesday, U.S. Core PCE Data Lands. CPI Data Get Refreshed Elsewhere The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz and crude prices grinding higher are adding to concerns about the global inflation outlook. Brent is headed for a second straight weekly gain and its sixth advance in eight weeks, but it's the surge in refined products that is drawing growing attention as the Northern Hemisphere heads towards the colder months. European diesel prices have jumped more than 70% since the outbreak of war in February; U.S. gasoline is up 60%. With refining output curtailed in the Middle East, Russia, East Asia and beyond, energy-driven inflation looks here to stay. Story Continues A clearer picture of global inflation is due in the coming days, with data from Australia on Wednesday, and France, Spain and Tokyo on Friday. Particular focus will fall on the U.S. core PCE reading on Wednesday — expected to print above the Fed's +2% target for the 65th consecutive month. (3) On Thursday, South Korea's Central Bank Sets Monetary Policy. Rate Hike? South Korea's central bank meets on Thursday with markets watching for signs that policymakers are ready to follow up July's first rate hike in 3-1/2 years. Inflation cooled to an annualized +2.8% that month, but still remains above target as demand for AI-related chips continues to support the economy. Higher borrowing costs could add to pressure on South Korean stocks, still recovering from June's leverage-fueled selloff, while also boosting the won, which has strengthened more than 10% this month. Governor Shin Hyun Song has signalled a preference for keeping policy tight to contain inflation, suggesting another hike cannot be ruled out. Elsewhere, Thailand's central bank meets on Wednesday, but with inflation far more subdued, few expect rates to move again this year. (4) On Friday, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Speaks for the First Time at Jackson Hole Big-think or red meat? That's the choice Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh faces as he prepares a keynote address at the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming: expound on his ideas for reforming the central bank, or stick to the nuts and bolts of monetary policy and whether rates are headed higher. As the gathering kicks off on Thursday, bringing together central bank chiefs from around the world, the audience for his remarks could hardly be more influential. Warsh has spent his first weeks as chair focusing on long-term structural issues facing the U.S. economy. But investors, still digesting a bond selloff, are craving a steer about the here and now. Warsh has been pretty clear he doesn't want to show his hand, but he may find his no-guidance policy becoming a liability. (5) Icelanders Vote: A Referendum on Whether to Start E.U. Accession Talks Icelanders head to the polls on August 29th in a referendum on whether to thaw out E.U. accession talks that have been on ice since 2013, when a eurosceptic government put them in the chiller. It's not a vote on joining the bloc itself. Any eventual deal would still need a second referendum. For now, polls suggest the country is split right down the middle. At stake are Iceland's rich natural resources, sky-high interest rates, a punishing cost of living costs and, increasingly, security concerns stirred by U.S. interest in neighboring Greenland. A "yes" vote would reopen thorny talks with Brussels, with fisheries likely the biggest obstacle. A "no" sends the E.U. question back into the deep freeze and dents the bloc's enlargement pitch. Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks Next, three fresh Zacks #1 (STRONG BUY) large-cap stocks: The three stocks share one thing in common: scary share price charts The first stock has lowest F12 P/E valuation I end with the nosebleed highest (1) Valero: This is a $342 a share refiner, with a market cap of $99.7B It is found in the Zacks Oil & Gas Refining industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of C. F12M P/E: 8.5. Valero Energy is the largest in

(Bloomberg) -- Oil dropped after two weeks of gains, with the market waiting to see the US economic isolation plan for Iran due to be released later Monday. Most Read from Bloomberg US Oil Refiners Face Import Squeeze From Biggest Foreign Seller Canada Sees Long Trade War With US That May Last Beyond Midterms US-Canada Trade Talks Fell Apart Over Fine Print, Envoy Says Nvidia Customers Notified About AI-Related Price Hikes Above 15% Bessent Has No Easy Fix for What's Really Driving Yields Up Brent fell to around $93 a barrel, after adding around 13% over the past two weeks, while West Texas Intermediate was near $86. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to unveil details of the plan in a press conference, and sought to ratchet up pressure on US allies to join the effort in an interview with CNBC. Oil has rallied more than 50% this year, with the US-Iran war — now in its sixth month — choking global supplies of crude and refined products. It's not clear exactly how the US could meaningfully ramp up economic pressure on Tehran, other than going after China — the main buyer of the OPEC producer's crude — and risking blowback. "Iran's enablers purchase and transport its petroleum," Bessent said in an opinion piece in the Financial Times. "They would do well to consider the consequences of sustaining it." The article has laid out the contours of the plan to target Iran's economy, said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group Ltd. "Calling his op-ed piece 'D-Day is coming for Iran' hardly suggests he is there to make friends, and we should expect a defiant message," he said. "Any defiant plan to materially disrupt the import of Iranian crude comes with significant execution and reaction risk." In an indication of how higher prices may be reducing fuel demand, China's top refiner Sinopec said gasoline consumption fell almost 8% and diesel use 12% in the first half of the year because of high prices and increased use of electric vehicles. While visible maritime shipping through Hormuz remains curbed, the Islamic Republic permitted a number of Iraqi oil tankers to transit the critical waterway following a request from Baghdad, Iranian media reported. Washington and Tehran have both repeatedly said that they control the strait. Still, flows in the Middle East remain disrupted. Saudi Arabia has been forced to shuttle oil loaded in the Red Sea via a safer but longer northern route after Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen targeted shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint in the south. Story Continues Elsewhere, Russia rejected a truce Ukraine offered on attacks against ships carrying agricultural commodities through the Black Sea because Moscow wanted guarantees against strikes on its energy infrastructure, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Saturday. While some refineries have recently completed maintenance, Russia hasn't yet decided whether to lift its diesel export ban in force through Sept. 1, Interfax reported. Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek The Diamond Industry's Old Guard Wants You to Buy 'Natural' New York's Israeli Restaurants Are Doing Better Than You Might Think The Seniors Against Senior Housing Group Chats Might Be Full of Affiliate Links Soon Rising Temperatures Are Threatening Some of America's Best Fishing Destinations ©2026 Bloomberg L.P. View Comments

If you fancy yourself a fan of gold or silver, you're feeling a bit more cheerful about the metal than this spring. Gold has been rising all month, up some 14% since July 31 to about $4,380 per troy ounce at the Aug. 21 close. Silver is up nearly 20% to $69.50 an ounce. Related: After the bubble: Why UBS is still a gold-and-silver fan Your cheer, however, has come after a lot of pain — more than six months, in fact. Precious metals prices surged upward through 2025 until an abrupt halt at the end of January. Gold peaked at $5,586 an ounce. Silver topped out at $121.785 an ounce. Both were seriously overbought levels. The peak came because futures exchanges tightened the rules for trading, something they will do if they believe trading has gotten out of hand. The rule changes effectively meant the cash required to trade in the gold and silver markets went up substantially. More important: On Jan. 29, President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to be the new chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. Gold and silver traders saw immediately that an inflation hawk would be in charge of running the Central Bank and might be more serious about cutting down domestic inflation, says former JP Morgan economist Anthony Chan, and started to unload their positions. But then came start of the war in the Middle East and, with the war, sharply higher oil prices and, of course, sharply higher gasoline and diesel prices. By the end of June, gold had tumbled about 28.5%. Silver fell 58% from its $121.79 peak to its bottom in mid-July. The war, which started on Feb. 28, caused oil prices and inflation to jump sharply. Warsh's appointment — and Wall Street's expectation the Fed would raise rates in 2026 — pulled interest rates higher, which was terrible for metals.Gold being refined at a refinery in Switzerland. Stefan Wermuth / Bloomberg / Getty ImagesStefan Wermuth / Bloomberg / Getty Images A break in the summer But the tide turned in the late spring and early summer on three points: Crude oil prices peaked in the late spring. The war itself lapsed into what's basically been a stalemate, despite continuing drone and missile attacks from the United States and Iran. (A note: When there is no shelling, oil and fuel prices fall.) Warsh and the Fed have not yet raised interest rates. The three combined to give gold and silver new life and gains for related exchange-traded funds. Since bottoming on July 15, the SPDR Gold Shares exchange-traded fund (GLD) has jumped 16%; the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is up 24%. Citigroup analysts think gold could close above $5,000 this year and hit $6,000 in 2027. A new catalyst came this month when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the United States was going to buy back long-dated Treasury bonds in a bid to knock down Treasury yields. Story Continues Partly the move is to deal with rates that had been rising since the Persian Gulf war erupted because bond investors understood that the war costs were going to prove far greater than anyone expected and impossible to predict. Another reason is to bring the U.S. dollar more into balance with the Japanese yen. That currency has been sliding because its government deficits are larger than those in the United States: about 200% of gross domestic product. And some decided they preferred hard assets like gold, silver and other metals instead of buying Treasury securities that could fall in value if interest rates continue to rise. Bessent's campaign worked for one day, but yields jumped back up on Aug. 20 and Aug. 21 as a number of analysts said the campaign wouldn't work. The 10-year Treasury yield was at 4.736% on Aug. 21, up nearly 13.5% on the year and nearly 20% since the war started on Feb. 28. The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.275% the same day, up nearly 9% in 2026 and up 14.3% since the war began. More Gold & Silver: Robert Kiyosaki has a bold call on gold and silver Peter Schiff sees something big in gold and silver BofA sees lost year taking shape for gold The new Fed boss will have his say The situation is fluid and confusing. And we haven't talked about the Federal Reserve and Kevin Warsh. Warsh has been adamant the Fed will deliver on a pledge to deliver price stability. But he has not offered many details because he's also trying to refocus the Fed. Investors are hoping for clarity on Friday when Warsh gives the keynote address at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Wyoming. The speech is scheduled for 10 a.m. ET. Traders and money managers around the world will be listening carefully. Are gold and silver right for investors? You can invest in both if you think deficits in the United States and elsewhere are out of control and dangerous. And the easiest way to do it is to buy the SPDR gold shares exchange-traded fund (GLD) or the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV). They're easy to buy and sell. And, if you think both are headed higher, enjoy the ride. Since both buy gold and silver directly, your investment is subject to market forces as I noted above. It's not an exaggeration to say the post-January slump was violent. But keep this one fact in mind: The bottom for each was not close to lows in 2023 and 2024. Related: HELOC rates are 7.31%. Why that's actually good news This story was originally published by TheStreet on Aug 23, 2026, where it first appeared in the Economy section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here. View Comments

By Niket Nishant and Rae Wee Aug 20 (Reuters) - U.S. government bonds sold off following a brief reprieve on Thursday, pushing yields higher again and keeping stocks under pressure as investors questioned whether U.S. Treasury ‌support measures would provide lasting relief. Yields on the 30-year U.S. government bond rose 2.74 basis points to ‌5.2214% after falling to 5.1765% earlier, a day after the Treasury's pledge to buy back more longer-dated debt. Yields move inversely to prices. The moves were ​being closely watched to gauge markets' faith in the U.S. Treasury's ability to stem a rout that has sent shockwaves across multiple asset classes. An MSCI index of global stocks fell for four consecutive sessions, its longest losing streak since March, before a 0.30% gain on Thursday. "The buyback announcement is more of a band-aid than a panacea. But it is a reminder that ‌the Treasury Department is paying attention and will ⁠do whatever it can to keep yields from getting too high too quickly," said Lawrence Gillum, chief fixed-income strategist for LPL Financial. The benchmark 10-year yield rose 2.33 basis points to 4.6763%, ⁠following a 5 bps fall on Wednesday. Yields on government bonds in Germany and Japan, however, eased. SOUR SENTIMENT WEIGHS ON STOCKS The pan-European STOXX 600 slipped 0.17% and the S&P 500 futures were flat. Higher bond yields typically pressure stocks. Elevated oil prices also dampened ​sentiment. Brent ​crude futures rose 2.54% to $93.95 a barrel as disruption in ​the Strait of Hormuz showed few signs of ‌easing. [O/R] "You're hitting a point where inventories can become a problem," said Tom Samuelson, chief investment officer at Vineyard Global Advisors. U.S. stockpiles of distillate fuel, including diesel and heating oil, have fallen for three consecutive weeks. Still, crude and gasoline inventories rose last week. Futures tracking the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index, however, inched 0.11% higher, helped in part by optimism towards AI. "It's penny-wise, pound-foolish for tech companies to worry about where the yield curve is. The fundamental story for AI charges ahead regardless," ‌said Marta Norton, chief investment strategist at retirement and wealth services ​provider Empower. Tech firms cannot afford to stop their AI spending given the ​potential hit to their businesses if they fall behind, ​a dynamic that may limit the impact of bond market turbulence on AI stocks, she ‌added. In currency markets, the euro rose 0.16% to $1.1695, hitting ​its highest since May. The ​yen weakened 0.21% to 158.50. Story Continues The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six major peers, was down 0.14% at 98.70. Minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting released on Wednesday showed that concern about inflation ​deepened, with "several" policymakers appearing ready to raise ‌interest rates and "many" saying a hike in borrowing costs would be needed if inflation does not decline ​to the central bank's 2% target. (Reporting by Niket Nishant in Bengaluru and Rae Wee in Singapore; Editing ​by Jamie Freed, Thomas Derpinghaus, Alex Richardson and Hugh Lawson) View Comments

Moneywise and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue through links in the content below. Rising living costs have been a persistent concern for Americans. Now, President Donald Trump is once again claiming that prices are coming down — but the latest inflation data tell a more complicated story for your wallet. During remarks in Ohio on Aug. 11, Trump said that "prices are dropping fast," while also touting the stock market and employment (1). The comment came as the latest government data showed inflation had eased slightly in July. Must Read Jeff Bezos backs a platform that lets anyone invest in rental homes for as little as $100 — 6 ways to build wealth like a landlord without actually being one JPMorgan still sees gold hitting $5,000/oz by Q4 — and savvy investors are protecting their wealth with a tax-advantaged Gold IRA. Learn more with a free guide from Priority Gold The tax breaks in Trump's 'big beautiful bill' expire after 2028 — and experts say most people won't act in time. What to do before the window closes But there's an important distinction between inflation slowing and prices actually falling. The latest data show that while the rate of inflation has cooled from its pandemic-era highs, the overall price level is still rising. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.4% in July from a year earlier, down slightly from 3.5% in June but still well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Prices also rose 0.1% from June to July (2). Some prices did fall in July. Gasoline dropped 2.9%, grocery prices fell 0.1% and car insurance declined 0.3%. But other costs continued to climb, including shelter, health care and airline fares. In short, Americans are still feeling the "affordability squeeze" — even as the pace of price increases has moderated. So, what's going on here? Here's a closer look at inflation in 2026 — and how you can capitalize on it. Inflation is still elevated There's an important catch to Trump's claim. Inflation is nowhere near its 9.1% peak from June 2022, but prices aren't actually falling across the board. They're still rising — just at a slower pace (3). It's worth pointing out that despite inflation cooling, it still remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. That means it's still technically higher than the Fed wants it to be. And the Fed isn't declaring victory, either. In its latest statement, the Federal Open Market Committee said that "inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal" (4). The Fed also held its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, with three policymakers actually voting for a rate hike. Story Continues The latest numbers aren't exactly great news for workers, either. After accounting for inflation, average hourly earnings were down 0.2% from a year earlier in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (3). In other words, paychecks aren't going as far as they were a year ago. That can make it tough for households to feel much relief, even when inflation is cooling. However, Trump has pointed to paychecks as a sign of his administration's success. "You're getting lower prices, bigger paychecks … you're getting much higher wages," he said at the rally in Pennsylvania (5). Wages are indeed rising, though perhaps not at the pace implied. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Americans' wages and salaries increased 3.3% over the 12 months ending in December 2025 — roughly keeping pace with inflation, but not dramatically outpacing it (6). And then there's the stock market — and the retirement accounts tied to it. Trump has also pointed to rising 401(k) balances as a sign Americans are doing better financially. Fidelity found the average 401(k) balance hit $141,000 in the first quarter of 2026, up 11% from a year earlier but down 4% from the previous quarter as markets wobbled (7). That's good news for retirement savers, but it doesn't mean everyone is feeling richer. A 401(k) can grow while everyday expenses are still eating into your budget — and market gains can disappear quickly when stocks fall. So the picture is a little more complicated: Inflation is cooling, but prices are still high and paychecks aren't necessarily going as far. The good news? History shows that investors don't have to rely on perfect policy or ideal economic conditions to protect their purchasing power. Across cycles — and regardless of who occupies the White House — savvy investors have found ways to shield themselves from inflation's bite. Read More: Millionaires under 43 hold only 25% of their wealth in stocks. Here's where their money is actually going A classic safe haven When it comes to preserving wealth and fighting inflation, few assets have stood the test of time like gold. Its appeal is simple: Unlike fiat currencies, the yellow metal can't be printed at will by central banks. It's not tied to any one country, currency or economy and in times of economic turmoil or geopolitical uncertainty, investors often flock to it — driving prices higher. Over the past 12 months, the price of the precious metal has surged by over 40% (8). Ray Dalio, founder of the world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, has repeatedly emphasized gold's importance in building a resilient portfolio. "People don't have, typically, an adequate amount of gold in their portfolio," Dalio told CNBC in 2025 (9). "When bad times come, gold is a very effective diversifier." JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has also struck a bullish tone, suggesting that in the current environment, gold could "easily" rise to $10,000 an ounce (10). Grabbing a golden bull by the horns One way to invest in gold that also provides significant tax advantages is to open a gold IRA with the help of Priority Gold. Gold IRAs allow investors to hold physical gold or gold-related assets within a retirement account, which combines the tax advantages of an IRA with the protective benefits of investing in gold, making it a

Wall Street has spent this year waiting for prices to calm down. The thinking was simple. The war with Iran pushed oil up in February; the shock would wear off, and the Fed would go back to cutting rates. One of the banks that sold that idea has changed its mind. Wells Fargo is not a gloomy voice on the U.S. economy. In June, its equity strategists raised the year-end target for the S&P 500 to 7,950 from 7,300, lifting its earnings forecast for the index, according to TheStreet. The people who forecast prices there are far less cheerful. Their new numbers say the long slide in inflation everyone counted on is running out of road. Wells Fargo raises its inflation forecast and now expects a rate hike Wells Fargo has lifted its inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027, and now expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by a quarter point before the year is out. The investment institute previously expected the Fed to remain on hold this year and in 2027, according to Reuters. Costlier energy, new tariffs, and supply chains that still do not run smoothly are behind the change. The bank's own June targets show what that shift is up against. The Wells Fargo Investment Institute had inflation ending this year at 3.4%, easing again in 2027, while expecting the Fed funds rate to remain at 3.50% to 3.75%. Those targets assumed the worst was over. The forecast now coming from the bank's economists does not. More Economy: Bank of America CEO warns inflation will back Fed into a corner Bank of America just made a strong call on inflation, economy Goldman Sachs says Americans may pay for the AI boom Cheaper energy should still bring most of the relief next year. After that, the bank sees the path go flat. Everyday services stay in demand, and the huge spending on artificial intelligence keeps pushing up what companies pay for workers, materials, and building work. That last part worries the bank because it does not fade on its own the way fuel prices do. This is a quick change of heart. In May, that same team still expected two rate cuts, arguing the oil shock was temporary and that a weaker summer job market would force the Fed's hand. Then Kevin Warsh took over as chair, made clear he wants inflation down, and the cuts came out of the forecast. In their place is the prospect of a rate hike before year-end. July inflation looked better than it was July did not look like a month to worry about. Annual inflation slipped to 3.4% from 3.5%, and core prices, which leave out food and fuel, came in at 2.5%, according to NBC. Traders promptly cut the odds of a September rate rise to 42%. On the face of it, the cooling was on track. Story Continues Look under the headline, and energy is still expensive. Energy prices in July sat 14.7% above where they were a year earlier, the BLS confirmed. Housing costs, the one thing meant to bring steady relief, did most of the work in the monthly rise. Households can feel it. Inflation is running ahead of wage growth of 3.2%; hourly pay has been going backward once rising prices are stripped out, and with regular gasoline back around $4 a gallon in August, nothing at the pump feels cheap. Wells Fargo keeps coming back to that gap. Set against last year's high prices, this year's figures look tame, and the items doing most of that work are the ones that swing about anyway. Two calm months in a row are not much to build on.Wall Street has spent this year waiting for prices to calm down.Michael/Getty Images Oil, tariffs, and the electricity cost of the AI boom Oil comes first. Ships barely move through the Strait of Hormuz, and the International Energy Agency forecasts that global oil demand will decline by 1.6 million barrels a day in 2026, according to CNBC. The Gulf has also kept crude above where it sat before the war. Tariffs are the more persistent of the two pressures. Oil can drop back within weeks once shipping lanes reopen. Once tariffs are on, they sit in the price of every imported item until the government takes them off. The bank treats that cost as something the economy continues to carry, rather than something it shakes off. Then there is the electricity bill behind the AI boom. PJM, which runs the power grid across much of the eastern United States, released results of a power auction showing that data centers would add approximately $6.3 billion in costs to households and businesses over the next three years, according to Fast Company. Power is the visible part of a bill that Wells Fargo says also runs through wages, materials, and construction. Put the three side by side, and one thing still stands out. Higher interest rates do not open a shipping lane, cancel a tariff, or build a power station. The Fed can either accept that prices take longer to come down or keep rates high for a longer period of time. Warsh has not sounded like a man who will pick the first, and Wells Fargo has written that into its forecast. What this means for the Fed and for investors The July meeting showed how split the room is. Rates were held for a fifth meeting in a row, but three officials voted against it and wanted a quarter-point rise: Beth Hammack of Cleveland, Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis, and Lorie Logan of Dallas, CNBC reported. No one on the committee dissented in favor of a cut. Investors did not treat the hold as good news. The vote came with no hint about the next move; stocks sold off, and long-term Treasury yields were pushed higher. Wells Fargo is not the only bank shifting. Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan, now expects a rise in December. For anyone holding assets that do well when rates fall, the question has changed. It is not about when the cuts start. It is about whether the long slide in prices that followed the pandemic has ended, leaving high rates as the normal setting for this cycle. Long-dated bonds, heavily indebted companies, and rate-sensitive shares turn on the answer. Wells Fargo has picked its side,

ProPetro, Patterson-UTI, and HighPeak Energy Stocks Trade Up, What You Need To Know What Happened? A number of stocks jumped in the afternoon session after Iran ruled out extending a 60-day memorandum of understanding with the United States. The June 17 memorandum was meant to reopen Hormuz while the two sides negotiated a nuclear deal within 60 days, CNBC reported.President Trump told Fox News he has "no time schedule" and is "not in a hurry." A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran would shift from defense to offense if diplomacy fails. Energy stocks rebounded because they (energy companies) make more money when oil is scarce and expensive. If the strait stays blocked, less crude reaches the market, so the price of each barrel rises. The stock market overreacts to news, and big price drops can present good opportunities to buy high-quality stocks. Among others, the following stocks were impacted: Oilfield Services company ProPetro(NYSE:PUMP) jumped 4.4%.Is now the time to buy ProPetro? Access our full analysis report here, it's free. Oilfield Services company Patterson-UTI(NASDAQ:PTEN) jumped 5.3%.Is now the time to buy Patterson-UTI? Access our full analysis report here, it's free. U.S. Shale E&P company HighPeak Energy(NASDAQ:HPK) jumped 4.3%.Is now the time to buy HighPeak Energy? Access our full analysis report here, it's free. Zooming In On Patterson-UTI (PTEN) Patterson-UTI's shares are extremely volatile and have had 34 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today's move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business. The previous big move we wrote about was 3 days ago when the stock gained 3.9% on the news that the price of crude oil climbed due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and persistent supply concerns. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, the U.S. benchmark, rose to over $81 per barrel, while Brent crude, the international standard, neared $90. The gains follow reports of stalled ceasefire talks and a U.S. threat to maintain an indefinite naval blockade on Iran. These developments heighten fears of a wider conflict that could disrupt supply, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint where about one-fifth of the global oil supply transits daily. While data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed a significant weekly build in commercial crude stocks, the market appears more focused on the substantial geopolitical risks. This has also kept average U.S. gasoline prices above $4 per gallon, reflecting the volatility in energy markets. Story Continues Patterson-UTI is up 86.9% since the beginning of the year, and at $12.09 per share, it is trading close to its 52-week high of $12.85 from May 2026. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Patterson-UTI's shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $1,698. ONE MORE THING: 3 Hidden Platforms Growing 3X Faster than Amazon, Google, and PayPal. Amazon, Google, and Meta all followed the same playbook: Dominate an ignored market. Build an unbeatable moat. Scale until you're unstoppable. These three platforms are running that exact playbook right now. The early investors in Amazon made fortunes. The early investors in these could do the same. Get All 3 Stocks Here for FREE. View Comments

[Inflation Concept] XtockImages Canada’s headline inflation rate ticked up to 2.9% in July 2026 from 2.8% in June, slightly above market forecasts of 2.9% while remaining below its post-Iran-war peak of 3.2% set two months prior. On a month-over-month basis, consumer prices rebounded 0.5%, reversing the 0.4% decline recorded in the previous period. Gasoline price growth accelerated to 25.7% (up from 20.5% in June), reflecting global wholesale oil and refined product market trends as renewed US-Iran strikes led to tanker blockades in key shipping corridors. Driven by these energy pressures, the Bank of Canada's core inflation metrics edged slightly higher; the median core rate rose to 2.0%, while the trimmed-mean rate reached 1.9%. MORE ON CANADA ECONOMY: * USD/CAD: Fed Policies To Determine Outlook As Rates Become Decisive [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4922501-usdcad-fed-policies-to-determine-outlook-as-rates-become-decisive] * Société Générale sees dollar strength into year-end before longer-term retreat [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4629658-societe-generale-sees-dollar-strength-into-year-end-before-longer-term-retreat] * Canada offers concessions in a bid to avoid Trump’s 50% tariffs: NYT [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4629650-canada-offers-concessions-avoid-trump-tariffs] * Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating on Franklin FTSE Canada ETF [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FLCA/ratings/quant-ratings] * Dividend scorecard for Franklin FTSE Canada ETF [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FLCA/dividends/scorecard]

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Friday fell by -0.17%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) fell by -0.20%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) fell by -0.13%.  E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) fell -0.27%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) fell -0.16%. Stocks ended Friday lower on weak US retail sales and consumer sentiment reports.  The weak US economic reports slightly reduced the odds of a September Fed rate hike to 32% from 35% but also sparked worries about a weaker US economy and weaker corporate earnings.  The stock market was also concerned that the 10-year T-note yield rose by +5 bp despite the weak US economic reports, as inflation worries continue.Join 200K+ Subscribers: Find out why the midday Barchart Brief newsletter is a must-read for thousands daily. US tech stocks saw carry-over support from an overnight rally of more than +2% in the South Korean Kospi index, with Samsung Electronics and chip-maker SK Hynix rallying by more than +15% this week.  However, US chip stocks were weak on Friday on poor momentum and higher T-note yields, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF closing the day lower. July US retail sales fell -0.6% m/m, much weaker than market expectations of +0.1%.  Ex-autos and gas, July retail sales fell -0.2% m/m, weaker than market expectations of +0.3%.  July's weak month-on-month retail sales report was partly due to technical factors, as June sales were temporarily bolstered by World Cup spending and by Amazon’s Prime Day being held in June rather than in July last year.  Yet, the weak retail sales report suggested that US consumers are pulling back due to high prices, increased gasoline costs, and a lack of confidence in their finances. The University of Michigan’s preliminary August US consumer sentiment index fell by -4.2 points to 51.0, weaker than market expectations for only a small -0.2 point decline to 55.0 from July’s 55.2. Stocks had ongoing support from the favorable US inflation reports released earlier this week.  Wednesday’s July core CPI fell to match the 5.5-year low of +2.5% y/y originally posted early this year.  The nominal July CPI fell to +3.4% from June’s +3.5% but remained well above the 5.5-year low of +2.3% posted last year.  Thursday’s July PPI of +4.7% y/y was down from May’s 3.5-year peak of +5.9% y/y, although it was still far above the Fed’s inflation target of +2%.  The July core PPI eased to +4.1% from June’s +4.7%. Sep WTI crude oil prices (CLU26) on Friday rose by +1.42% on reports that two Abu Dhabi oil vessels were attacked by Iran on Thursday night while moving through the Strait of Hormuz.  However, oil prices traded below Tuesday’s 2-week high as the Trump administration pivots to economic pressure rather than fresh US military attacks to try to force Iran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the administration will soon announce unprecedented economic measures against Iran that “have never been seen in the history of economic isolation of a country.” The economic measures would add to the current US naval blockade of Iranian ports. There have been no signs of progress toward a US-Iran agreement to fully open the Strait of Hormuz.  An Iranian military spokesperson said Thursday that no ship can safely pass the Strait of Hormuz without Iran’s authorization and supervision and that President Trump’s claims of control over the Strait are “nothing more than lies.” The Iranian statement was in response to President Trump's comment late Tuesday that the US has “total control over the Hormuz Strait” and that “we own it.” The outlook for strong Q2 earnings is a bullish factor for stocks. The S&P 500 is tracking for earnings growth of almost 32% in Q2, well above projections of +23%, and nearly four times the average earnings growth rate outside of the Covid period since Q4 of 2013, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.  AI spending is expected to account for most of earnings, with AI infrastructure stocks set to contribute nearly 60% of the S&P 500's earnings-per-share growth in Q2.  So far, earnings results have been positive, with 85% of the 446 S&P 500 companies that have reported Q2 earnings beating estimates, according to Bloomberg data. The markets are discounting a 32% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on September 15-16, down from 35% on Thursday and 51% as recently as Tuesday. Overseas stock markets closed mixed on Friday.  The Euro Stoxx 50 closed down -0.09%.  China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.01%.  Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed up +0.59%. Interest Rates September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) on Friday fell -10 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield rose +4.0 bp to 4.682%.  The 10-year T-note yield rose despite the weak US economic reports as market participants continued to fret about inflation.  The 10-year breakeven inflation expectations rate rose +2.3 bp to 2.282%. Inflation expectations were in focus after Friday’s University of Michigan sentiment report for August showed that consumers expect 1-year inflation at a very high +4.3%, up from expectations of +4.2% in July. Expectations for 5-10 year inflation were unchanged at +3.3%, far above the Fed’s +2% inflation target. Thursday’s 30-year T-bond auction carried a yield of 5.216%, the highest since 2001.  Investors have recently demanded higher Treasury yields due to the US government’s massive budget deficit, high US inflation, Fed Chair Warsh's cutback in policy guidance, and market uncertainty about the Fed's inflation-fighting resolve. European government bond yields rose.  The 10-year German bund yield rose +7.3 bp to 3.204%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield rose +8.4 bp to 5.037%. Markets are discounting a 92% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on September 10. US Stock Movers The Magnificent Seven on Friday closed mostly lower, a negative factor for the overall market.  Meta (META) and Amazon.com (AMZN) were the biggest losers, each down about

Paul Morigi/ Getty Images; Jc Milhet/ Getty Images Moneywise and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue through links in the content below. America's economy may still be growing, but beneath the headline numbers, some of the country's biggest companies and financial institutions are seeing a troubling sign. Take Walmart. Few companies have a better window into the American consumer, with more than 150 million (1) U.S. customers visiting its stores and websites each week. So, when its executives notice shoppers changing their behavior, it's worth paying attention. Must Read Jeff Bezos backs a platform that lets anyone invest in rental homes for as little as $100 — 6 ways to build wealth like a landlord without actually being one JPMorgan still sees gold hitting $5,000/oz by Q4 — and savvy investors are protecting their wealth with a tax-advantaged Gold IRA. Learn more with a free guide from Priority Gold The tax breaks in Trump's 'big beautiful bill' expire after 2028 — and experts say most people won't act in time. What to do before the window closes Walmart CEO John Furner recently identified one particular source of pressure. "That's really the stress point, is the price of fuel," Furner said (2), adding, "Hopefully, we see some relief on energy prices." Walmart CFO John David Rainey has pointed to an even more tangible sign of the squeeze: Customers were filling their gas tanks with fewer than 10 gallons per visit on average. "That's an indication of stress," Rainey said (3). For someone with a tight budget, buying less fuel at a time can be a way of managing cash flow when a full tank has simply become too expensive. And the pressure may not stay confined to the pump. Rainey warned that persistently high fuel costs could eventually feed into the prices of other products, as transportation and energy expenses work their way through the economy. Bank of America's own customer data tells a similar story. Its May 2026 Consumer Checkpoint showed overall spending growth, but it also found (4) "signs of stress beneath the surface for some households." In particular, lower- and middle-income households were pulling back on discretionary spending, while the wage gains enjoyed by lower-income households over the previous year were barely enough to cover their increase in gasoline spending. TransUnion is seeing the strain from another angle: Americans' credit profiles. "Everyone has seen the effects of inflation somewhat equally — nobody escaped it," said (5) Michele Raneri, vice president and head of U.S. Research and Consulting at TransUnion. Story Continues But the consequences haven't been equal. Lower-income households "are struggling more than they did," Raneri said, adding that once debt-to-income levels are taken into account, "that's where you see that lower-income consumers are hit more." When one of America's biggest banks, its largest retailer and a major credit bureau are all pointing to the same problem, it suggests something serious: Headline inflation may have cooled from its pandemic-era highs, but the cost-of-living crisis is still hitting consumers where it hurts. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (6), food prices in the U.S. have increased 34% since the beginning of 2020, while housing costs are up around 33% (7). Energy prices, meanwhile, have surged nearly 43% (8) over the same period. Although the U.S. war with Iran appears to be the immediate concern behind higher energy prices, inflation itself isn't new. It's been steadily eroding Americans' purchasing power for decades. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis (9), $100 in 2026 had the same purchasing power as less than $12 in 1970. The good news? Throughout history, savvy investors have always found ways to shield themselves from inflation's bite — in war and in peace. Here's a look at three time-tested strategies. A classic safe haven When it comes to preserving wealth and fighting inflation, few assets have stood the test of time like gold. Its appeal is simple: Unlike fiat currencies, the yellow metal can't be printed at will by central banks. Gold is also considered the ultimate safe haven, as it's not tied to any one country, currency or economy, and in times of economic turmoil or geopolitical uncertainty, investors often flock to it — driving prices higher. Ray Dalio, founder of the world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, has repeatedly highlighted gold's role in a resilient portfolio. "People don't have, typically, an adequate amount of gold in their portfolio," Dalio told CNBC last year. "When bad times come, gold is a very effective diversifier." Over the past five years, as inflation continued to chip away at the purchasing power of the dollar, gold has climbed 146% (10). Other prominent voices see further potential. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has said that in this environment, gold can "easily" rise to $10,000 an ounce. One way to invest in gold that can also provide significant tax advantages is to open a gold IRA with the help of Goldco. Gold IRAs allow investors to hold physical gold or gold-related assets within a retirement account, combining the tax advantages of an IRA with the protective benefits of investing in gold. This makes gold a compelling potential option for those wanting to ensure their retirement funds are diversified during rough economic times. Goldco even offers free shipping and access to a library of retirement resources. Plus, the company will match up to 10% of qualified purchases in free silver. If you're curious whether this is the right investment to diversify your portfolio, you can download your free gold and silver information guide today. Just remember — gold is usually best used as only one part of your portfolio. Read More: Millionaires under 43 hold only 25% of their wealth in stocks. Here's where their money is actually going A time-tested income play Gold isn't the only asset inves

(Bloomberg) -- For most of his second term, President Donald Trump has been arguing that the "golden age" he promised for America's economy is already here. There's hardly been much evidence that voters agreed. Most Read from Bloomberg Selena Gomez Accused of Fraud by Mental-Health Startup Investors Costliest US Bond Sale Since 2001 Is Investor Warning to Bessent Anthropic in Talks to Buy AI Startup Decart for $6 Billion Walter Sells Lakers, Seeks More Cash to Pay Loans Amid DOJ Probe Phoebe Gates Knew Phia Shopping App Took Credit for Sales It Didn't Drive Now, with midterm elections less than three months away and campaigning poised to get underway in earnest, the gap has become impossible to ignore. And there are signs that's weighing on Trump's Republican Party as it fights to retain control of Congress. The president's rosy view is running into anxiety about the cost of living and fallout from the war in Iran. Inside the White House, there's broad confidence that the administration has a record to run on, one the president will likely be hammering from here to November. But other Republicans, including some people close to the president, are concerned that won't be enough, especially for candidates running in competitive races. They want him to offer fresh economic plans, such as further tax cuts expanding on last year's major law that's central to the GOP economic pitch. Whether he changes course or not, the current environment represents a reckoning for Trump, who relied on the economy as key political strength during his first term. Now, it's shaping up as a significant liability. The economic data itself offers a mixed picture. Unemployment is low, American consumers are buying plenty of stuff, and there are signs of a manufacturing revival. But inflation has been back above 3% — the level when Trump took office — since the president went to war with Iran alongside Israel in late February. Voters are laser-focused on the cost of living, as they've been ever since prices skyrocketed under former President Joe Biden and helped Trump win back the White House. They seem to have concluded that his second-term policies haven't helped. Just 39% approve of Trump's job performance, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average. Even fewer, 30%, approve of his handling of inflation. A 31% plurality of Americans in a new Economist/YouGov poll listed inflation and prices as their most important issue, 17 percentage points more than the second-most important topic, jobs and the economy. Story Continues 'Catch 22' All of this has left Republican candidates facing tight midterm races "in a Catch 22," said Marc Short, who served in the first Trump administration. "They are reluctant to criticize, because they think the president will come after them, but ultimately I think a lot of their voters want to see them stand up for their interests" on issues like trade, Short said. Trump has plenty of achievements to highlight but "it's hard to argue that his tariffs are not contributing to the affordability problems." Unease among some in Trump's circles was laid bare Tuesday afternoon on Fox Business, where former National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow interviewed his successor Kevin Hassett. Kudlow said he'd spoken with Trump about measures that would effectively lower capital gains taxes, and "the boss is very interested." Hassett said that Trump has now decided he can't campaign by looking backward. "He says, as we're going into the midterms, that he doesn't want to just sort of say how great it is what we've done in the past." Aides insist Trump is getting a clear-eyed readout of the state of things but is focusing on what he sees as positives. He wants to tout the soaring stock market that's lifted Americans' retirement accounts, and the tax cuts he pushed through last year. It's a plus to have gotten the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed in time for those measures to have a midterm impact, an official said. The president is also attuned to important indicators, including the price of beef, one White House official said. But another said the president's view of the economy is shaped in part by his frequent viewing of Fox News and Fox Business, which generally air pro-Trump assessments. 'On Day One' On the campaign trail, Trump has acknowledged voter concerns about high prices yet he has continued to blame Biden, who left office more than a year and a half ago. "Remember, we inherited the worst inflation in the history of our country," he said in Las Vegas on Aug. 5. "We brought down prices and nobody can believe what's going on." The cumulative increase in consumer prices during Biden's term was higher than under any other president in the past 40 years, though the pace had slowed by the time Trump took over. The new president promised to bring down prices "on day one." Instead inflation has accelerated again this year. Prices for many staples, including beef, veal and electricity, are still elevated. Housing remains unaffordable to many, with 30-year mortgage rates around 6.7%, their highest this year. But the key driver has been Trump's war with Iran and the energy shock it caused. Gasoline is above $4 a gallon, the latest into the summer it's been at that level in more than two decades of American Automobile Association data. Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have argued for months now that pump prices will plummet when the war is over, but while fighting has eased, there's little sign of an imminent resolution that would unlock oil supplies. Economists have said the buffer of tax savings and bigger refunds from the Trump tax bill, which helped Americans pay higher fuel prices without cutting back on other spending, is now gone. Peter Navarro, a longtime Trump economic aide, said the administration is aware of challenges around affordability. "We all understand that we're grappling with inflation and problems that are creating hardship for Americ

TOKYO (AP) — Asian shares mostly rose in early Thursday trading, as global market optimism continued on prospects for AI stocks and the semiconductor sector. Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 jumped 1.6% in early trading to 68,609.92. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.6% to 9,155.80. South Korea's Kospi surged 3.9% to 6,835.55. Hong Kong's Hang Seng edged up nearly 0.1% to 25,453.45, while the Shanghai Composite gained 0.4% to 3,961.82. Asian regional sentiments received a boost from the overnight performance of Wall Street, which finished just shy of a record Wednesday. Several AI stocks reported better growth for the spring than analysts expected, while a report showed inflation across the United States was slightly less bad last month. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% for its first gain since setting its all-time high on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 21 points, or less than 0.1%, and the Nasdaq composite climbed 0.5%. Stocks in the artificial intelligence technology business helped lead the way after strong profit reports bolstered hopes they can continue to deliver big-enough growth to justify the huge gains their prices have made. It's a return to strength for AI stocks, which have been veering on a roller-coaster ride. After surging to records, AI stocks came under pressure on worries that they shot too high. Investors wanted to see big spenders on AI prove their investments are yielding enough in profits and productivity to make them worth it. That in turn could lead to continued demand for chips and other AI infrastructure. Treasury yields fell after a report showed that U.S. consumers paid prices for gasoline, groceries and other costs of living last month that were 3.4% higher than a year earlier. That's higher than anyone would like, but it's not as bad as June's 3.5% inflation rate. The deceleration could give the Federal Reserve more leeway to hold off on hikes to interest rates. The Fed's members are notably split about whether they should have already begun hiking interest rates. But Wednesday's update on inflation pushed traders to pull back on bets the Fed will hike its main interest rate at its next meeting in September. That helped pull the yield on the 10-year Treasury down to 4.68% from 4.70% late Tuesday. It, though, still remains well above its 3.97% level from before the war with Iran, which sent oil prices and worries about inflation spiking. In energy trading, benchmark U.S. crude dipped $1.07 to $82.20 a barrel. Brent crude, the international standard fell $1.01 to $87.97 a barrel. That swung between modest gains and losses Wednesday. Story Continues All told, the S&P 500 rose 20.30 points to 7,748.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 21.58 to 53,770.27, and the Nasdaq composite gained 143.04 to 26,588.49. In currency trading, the U.S. dollar inched up to 159.43 Japanese yen from 159.41 yen. The euro cost $1.1525, down slightly from $1.1527. ___ AP Business Writer Stan Choe contributed to this report. ___ Yuri Kageyama is on Threads: https://www.threads.com/@yurikageyama View Comments

This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Adjusted EBITDA: $442 million for the second quarter and over $100 million for the half year. Refining Segment EBITDA: Almost doubled its contribution for the quarter. System Benchmark Margin: Averaged $9.5 per barrel in Q2, down from the previous quarter but well above the $5.7 average in the same period last year. Production and Sales Volumes: Much higher than last year, with production at 3.8 million tons for the quarter and 6.8 million tons for the half year. Capital Expenditures (CapEx): Exceeded $400 million in the first half, the highest ever posted for a first semester. Cash Flow: Second quarter cash flow was around $300 million, with net debt impact of $700 million versus the previous quarter. Net Debt: Below $2 billion, with a leverage ratio of 1.3% based on last 12 months' numbers. Refining CapEx: Almost $250 million for the half, including the Elefsina turnaround and improvement projects. Petrochemicals Benchmark Margin: Averaged above EUR700 per tonne for the quarter. Power Generation Capacity: Increased by about 60 megawatts due to the completion of two Romanian PV parks. Renewables Under Construction: Over half a gigawatt, with 250 megawatts of PV and battery projects expected to enter operation in the current quarter. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 7 Warning Sign with HLPMF. Is HLPMF fairly valued? Test your thesis with our free DCF calculator. Release Date: August 05, 2026 For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. Positive Points Record half-year financial performance with adjusted EBITDA of $442 million in Q2 and over $100 million for the half-year, driven by strong refining margins and operational excellence. Successful completion of the Aspropyrgos refinery turnaround with excellent safety records, leading to improved performance and higher production volumes. Strong margin capture and overperformance due to effective crude supply management, trading agility, and maximization of middle distillate production amid supply disruptions. Positive outlook for refining margins in 2027 and beyond, supported by supply-demand imbalances, underinvestment in European refining, and geopolitical factors. Renewables portfolio expanding as planned, with over half a gigawatt under construction and targets of 1-1.5 GW by 2028 and 2 GW by 2030, enhancing diversification. Negative Points High crude supply costs and volatility due to geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Gulf, impacting procurement and adding operational complexity. Domestic fuel demand declined by 6% in Q2, driven by high prices affecting gasoline and LPG consumption, though diesel and jet demand remained stable. The company faces potential windfall tax risks, as seen in Portugal, which could impact profitability if governments impose additional levies on refining profits. Inventory losses are expected in Q3 if oil prices remain low, partially offsetting the gains recorded in the first half of the year. The petrol station network is undergoing a reduction, with a trend of closing underperforming stations, which may impact long-term market presence. Story Continues Q & A Highlights Q: What is your outlook for refining margins in 2027 and beyond under scenarios of continued Middle East disruption, a return to 2023 conditions, or a return to 2019 conditions? How should investors view Hellenic's renewables business and exploration focus?A: Andreas Shiamishis (CEO): We cannot predict which scenario will prevail, but we believe refining margins in '27 will remain high due to fundamental reasons, not just the crisis. Demand for hydrocarbons is increasing, supply is constrained by underinvestment and geopolitical disruptions, and the refining asset base has changed. We are more positive on the refining business overall. Georgios Alexopoulos (Deputy CEO): Our balanced approach from Vision 2025 remains, investing in renewables while recognizing the continued relevance of hydrocarbons. We are investing in a balanced mix including wind, solar, and energy storage. On exploration, we do not expect to become an exploration super major, and the company's structure is unlikely to change significantly. Q: Could you explain the main difference between reported and adjusted EBITDA in the refining segment, the decrease in petrol stations, and the accounting gain from the farm-out of your E&P block?A: Vasilis Tsaitas (CFO): The difference is 90-95% inventory gains. In Q1, we recorded ~$150 million due to weighted average costing and higher crude procurement prices versus the benchmark. In June, we recorded a small loss as prices declined. The farm-out gain with Chevron was ~$17 million, a cash consideration for expenses paid before Chevron farmed in, which is net of taxes. Andreas Shiamishis (CEO): The reduction in petrol stations is an ongoing process of replacing underperforming stations with better-performing ones, a trend that will continue. Q: Could you clarify whether the 20 million contribution to lower fuel prices at the pump is a one-off measure for August, and whether the government could still consider a windfall tax on refining profits?A: Andreas Shiamishis (CEO): The discount is 0.05 per liter at the pump, and the value will be higher than 20 million as volumes pick up. We have not decided on extending it, but given our strong performance, we may consider it. On the windfall tax, Portugal is a different case with a much smaller system and lower investment. We are providing support to the Greek market through our commercial policy, but it is up to the government to decide. Q: How do you see refining margins developing towards year-end? Have you increased market share in international exports, and have you seen demand destruction?A: Vasilis Tsaitas (CFO): Our outlook for refining margins is strong, with cracks and margins reaching high levels post-Q2. International exports have increased, particularly in the Black

(Bloomberg) -- Underlying US inflation was subdued in July, likely easing pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Most Read from Bloomberg Phoebe Gates Knew Phia Shopping App Took Credit for Sales It Didn't Drive Trump Weighs Call for Capital Gains Tax Cuts as Midterm Boost Tata Sons Chairman to Step Down, Deepening Leadership Turmoil Five Takeaways From Zuckerberg's 6,500-Word Manifesto on AI Pakistan Says Deal Is Close Even as Iran, US Harden Stances The consumer price index, excluding often-volatile food and energy categories, increased 0.2% from a month earlier, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Wednesday. On an annual basis, it advanced 2.5%, matching the slowest pace since March 2021. Overall, consumer prices rose 0.1% from the prior month and 3.4% from a year earlier. Follow the reaction in real time here on Bloomberg's TOPLive blog The report suggests the impact of the energy-price shock from the Iran war continued to fade in July. The figures may give the Fed more room to weigh inflation pressures against a recent slowdown in hiring as it debates whether to lift borrowing costs at its Sept. 15-16 meeting. Policymakers will see additional reports on employment and inflation before the September meeting, and investors will be listening closely to Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's expected remarks at the central bank's annual Jackson Hole symposium later this month. US stock futures rose and Treasury yields fell as investors pared bets on a September rate hike. Energy and gasoline prices fell for a second month, while grocery prices fell for the first time since March, thanks in part to a record decline in lettuce prices amid the cyclospora outbreak. US gasoline prices rose above $4 a gallon again in July after a US-Iran ceasefire collapsed and hostilities reignited, but remained lower on average across the entire month than in June. Services prices, excluding energy and rents, rose a modest 0.2% following a decline the month before, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Goods prices, excluding food and energy commodities, rebounded following two months of declines. Shelter prices rose 0.1%, accounting for two-thirds of the overall increase, according to the BLS. Medical care and airfares were among other services categories that saw rising prices. Computer Inflation Computer software and accessories prices rose a record 21.2% from a year earlier, while computers, peripherals and smart home assistants advanced by the most in more than four years. Economists are monitoring the impact of price increases announced in June on popular consumer tech products like Apple Inc.'s Macs and iPads, which have been driven by a global shortage of memory chips amid a race to build data centers. Story Continues Figures on producer prices due Thursday will offer insights on additional categories that feed directly into the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, based on the price index for personal consumption expenditures, which will be released later this month. Core inflation by that measure has generally been running faster than in the CPI this year. In September, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will implement changes to how prices are calculated for certain categories in the PCE index, including legal services, computer software and investment advice. A separate report Wednesday that combines the inflation figures with recent wage data showed that real average hourly earnings declined 0.2% in July from a year earlier, extending a string of weak readings since the Iran war began. --With assistance from Augusta Saraiva, Jeffrey Sparshott and Julia Fanzeres. (Updates with more details beginning in eighth paragraph.) Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek Supercharged by Social Media, the GLP-1 Boom Is Warping Teen Psyches ICE Arrests Are Pushing Immigrant Families Deeper Into Poverty Suno Says AI Is the Future of Music. Record Labels Say It's Theft Lululemon Is At War With Itself With EV Sales Slowing, Hybrid Cars Are Hot Again ©2026 Bloomberg L.P. View Comments

By Shubham Batra NEW DELHI, Aug 12 (Reuters) - India's annual retail inflation accelerated to 4.45% in July on higher food prices, against 4.38% a ‌month ago, a pace that's unlikely to push the central bank ‌to change its outlook on raising interest rates. The July print was nearly in-line with a ​Reuters poll of economists, which had estimated inflation at 4.50%, and marked the second consecutive month in which inflation breached the Reserve Bank of India's 4% medium-term target. The central bank left its benchmark repo rate unchanged at 5.25% last week, ‌as policymakers awaited clearer ⁠evidence on whether inflationary pressures had become broad-based in Asia's third-largest economy. India's food inflation climbed to 5.52% in July from ⁠5.32% in June, on the back of weak monsoon showers, but it is expected to soften with a slight recovery in the rains in August that could ​mitigate further ​price pressures from the impact of ​El Nino. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said ‌that headline inflation has moved above target mainly because of higher fuel prices, while broader price pressures remained in check at the central bank's last monetary policy announcement earlier this month. The central bank also cut its inflation forecast for 2026/27 by 10 basis points to 5% at that meeting. India's ‌state-run fuel retailers raised petrol and diesel prices ​four times in May in response to ​rising costs due to the ​U.S.-Iran war. While a brief pause in the conflict pushed ‌global crude prices lower, they were ​still about 20% above ​pre-war levels. Economists said that while the price of crude oil was volatile during the month, the absence of any meaningful revision in domestic ​retail fuel prices is ‌expected to limit the pass-through to consumers. Still, transport inflation accelerated to ​4.43% in July from 4.31% in June. (Reporting by Shubham Batra in ​New Delhi; Editing by Ronojoy Mazumdar) View Comments

A top Federal Reserve official says she believes it will likely take more than one rate hike to quell the current wave of inflation, though she declined to identify a specific number. "I would say in general, one 25 basis point move probably doesn't do a whole lot for the economy," Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammacksaid in a Yahoo Finance interview published Monday. "So it's probably some number… But I don't want to prejudge what that number is going to be." Must Read Jeff Bezos backs a platform that lets anyone invest in rental homes for as little as $100 — 6 ways to build wealth like a landlord without actually being one Dave Ramsey warns nearly 50% of Americans are making 1 big Social Security mistake. Here's what it is and 3 simple steps to fix it ASAP Millionaires under 43 hold only 25% of their wealth in stocks. Here's where their money is actually going She added that the Fed shouldn't fade into the background regarding its mandate to ensure stable prices. "Markets are a complement for the Fed," Hammack told Yahoo Finance. "They're not a substitute. We have to stand behind our words with our actions when appropriate." Late last month, Fed officials voted 9-3 to keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.5% to 3.75% for the fifth time in a row. The three dissenting voices came from regional bank presidents who favored a quarter-point rate increase to address energy supply shocks from the Iran War that pushed up gasoline prices, along with the cost of plenty of other products that rely on diesel for transportation, such as groceries. Hammock was among them. "Now is the time to act," she said on Tuesday. At a recent City Club of Cleveland event, she said, "Inflation does not merely raise costs. It raises uncertainty." The Fed's next moves on inflation Hammack said after the Fed's July meeting that she had heard rising anxiety among consumers and businesses about the recent spike in prices. For many workers, inflation is swallowing most of their wage gains, while businesses grapple with higher shipping costs and inflation-weary customers. "What I have heard from across the Fourth Federal Reserve District reinforces this view: Businesses describe pricing pressures as broadening rather than fading, and consumers are expressing despair over persistently higher prices," Hammack said in a LinkedIn post. Fed officials won't reconvene again until mid-September, but a pair of inflation readings will set the stage for its next moves on rates. The July consumer price index (CPI) will be released on Wednesday, and most analysts believe it will show a 2.5% year-over-year increase after stripping out volatile energy and food prices. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge tracking personal consumption expenditures (PCE) will be published on Aug. 26. If the reports display a round of higher-than-anticipated price increases, pressure will mount on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to push through interest rate hikes. Story Continues Read More: Vanguard reveals what's coming for U.S. stocks — and it could be bad news for this group of investors The case to hold interest rates steady for now Not everyone's on board to increase interest rates right away. Fed Governor Lisa Cook, another FOMC voting member, said in an Aug. 5 speech that she believed price pressures would fade over time and supported sitting still on rates. She argued tariff-fueled inflation on products was mostly in the rearview mirror at this stage and cited analyst forecasts that oil prices would come down by year's end. She also expected AI supply chains to adjust and ward off the price increases on computer chips that are in extremely high demand from tech companies. "For these three reasons, I felt it was appropriate not to change rates while we see how these factors evolve," she said at an economic luncheon in Alaska. "If I do not see signs of continued disinflation soon, I am prepared to act." What To Read Next The tax breaks in Trump's 'big beautiful bill' expire after 2028 — and experts say most people won't act in time. What to do before the window closes Here's the average income of Americans by age in 2026. Are you keeping up or falling behind? Robert Kiyosaki says China is 'dumping' the US as America piles on debt. Fortify your riches with 4 key assets This fund has historically paid 8% or higher for 25 months, with just a $100 minimum to start — 4 ways to grow your cash without the stock market Join 250,000+ readers and get Moneywise's best stories and exclusive interviews first — clear insights curated and delivered weekly. Subscribe now. This article originally appeared on Moneywise.com under the title: Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack warns one rate hike won't cut it as inflation swallows workers' wage gains This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind. View Comments

BANGKOK (AP) — Asian shares were mostly higher Wednesday after U.S. stocks slipped a bit further from their records, while oil prices advanced as doubts persisted over when the war with Iran will allow crude to flow freely again. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 gained 0.6% to 67334.94. In South Korea, the Kospi gained 4% to 6,597.90 on renewed buying of computer chipmakers. Samsung Electronics gained 7.7% and memory chipmaker SK Hynix was up 7.1%. Taiwan's Taiex advanced 0.8%. The Shanghai Composite index added 0.3% to 3,946.51, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong slipped 1.2% to 25,352.13. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.6% to 9,197.00. The price of a barrel of Brent crude, the international standard, was up 0.9% at $89.67 early Wednesday. U.S. benchmark crude oil picked up 0.9% to $83.98. Iran has rejected U.S. President Donald Trump's comment that since Iran is seeking compensation as part of any talks on ending the war, he would demand the same. The United States and Israel attacked Iran in late February, which led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and kept much of the world's oil pent up in the Middle East. Last month alone, Brent's price veered between $72 and $102 per barrel. Meanwhile an attack by Iran-backed Houthi rebels on a vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb strait, at Yemen's southern tip, has raised concerns that the violence could reignite civil war and further threaten regional shipping routes. Higher oil prices make inflation worse, and they have sent the average cost for a gallon of regular gasoline to $4.01, according to AAA. That's up from less than $3.14 a year ago. That has Wall Street's attention focused on Wednesday, when the U.S. government will release the latest monthly reading on inflation. Economists expect it to show inflation slipped to 3.4% in July from 3.5% in June. Tuesday on Wall Street, the S&P 500 fell 0.3% for a second modest drop since setting its all-time high on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 184 points, or 0.3%, and the Nasdaq composite sank 0.6%. Cooler inflation could relieve pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to help tamp down price increases. Higher rates could curb inflation but they also would drag on the overall U.S. economy by making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money. They also would undercut prices for stocks and other investments. Treasury yields have jumped since the war with Iran because of higher oil prices and worries about inflation, sending long-term mortgage rates to their highest levels in a year. In other dealings early Wednesday, the U.S. dollar rose to 159.41 Japanese yen from 159.30 yen. The euro slipped to $1.1535 from $1.1544. ___ Associated Press Business Writers Matt Ott and Stan Choe contributed to this report. View Comments

Nathan Howard/ Getty Images Moneywise and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue through links in the content below. President Donald Trump says Americans' retirement accounts are enjoying a historic run — and he believes the best may still be ahead. During a recent interview with Fox News, Trump pointed to record stock prices, rising employment and a wave of new factory investment as evidence that the U.S. economy is firing on all cylinders. "We hit an all-time stock market high," Trump said (1). Must Read Jeff Bezos backs a platform that lets anyone invest in rental homes for as little as $100 — 6 ways to build wealth like a landlord without actually being one JPMorgan still sees gold hitting $5,000/oz by Q4 — and savvy investors are protecting their wealth with a tax-advantaged Gold IRA. Learn more with a free guide from Priority Gold The tax breaks in Trump's 'big beautiful bill' expire after 2028 — and experts say most people won't act in time. What to do before the window closes Then he turned to Americans' retirement savings. "401(k)s are the highest they've ever been by double and triple," he said. Trump did not explain precisely what he meant by "double and triple," and individual 401(k) returns vary widely depending on what workers own, when they began investing and how much they contribute. But his broader point was unmistakable: with stocks soaring to record highs, Americans who have stayed invested have had plenty to celebrate. The benchmark S&P 500 has gained about 29% since the beginning of Trump's second term, lifting retirement accounts along the way. According to Fidelity (2), the average 401(k) balance rose 11% from Q1 2025 to Q1 2026, reaching $141,000. Although a good boost, this doesn't qualify as double or triple. Vanguard (3) reported a similar trend, stating that "strong market performance in 2025 led directly to substantial increases in retirement accounts." Its average 401(k) balance rose 13% in 2025 to an all-time high of $167,970. And Trump believes the country is only beginning to feel the benefits of his economic agenda. "This is the GOLDEN AGE OF AMERICA, and we're just getting started," he wrote in a Truth Social post (4). 'America is WINNING!' Trump has been particularly bullish on one corner of the economy: manufacturing. "Manufacturing is BOOMING!" he wrote in the same post, pointing to U.S. factory activity reaching its fastest pace in more than four years. Exports are another area he has highlighted. "American Exports are on FIRE. U.S. Goods Exports have now topped 200 BILLION DOLLARS for the fifth consecutive month," he added. "We are on pace for nearly 2.5 TRILLION DOLLARS in Goods Exports this year — Numbers nobody thought possible just two years ago." Story Continues And once again, he pointed to Wall Street as evidence that investors are buying into the story. "The Stock Market is at an ALL TIME HIGH, and setting Record after Record because Investors know America is WINNING!" he wrote. For retirement savers, that raises a simple question: are you participating? Read More: Millionaires under 43 hold only 25% of their wealth in stocks. Here's where their money is actually going Put America's growth to work — start with free money For many Americans, building long-term wealth does not begin with identifying the next Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) or guessing which industry will benefit most from Trump's policies. It starts with taking full advantage of the benefits already available through the workplace. If your employer offers a 401(k) match, contributing enough to receive the full match is often one of the most attractive first steps. For example, an employer that matches contributions dollar for dollar up to a certain percentage of salary is effectively adding money to your retirement account whenever you contribute. That is why an employer match is often described as "free money" — and why many investors prioritize capturing it before moving on to other accounts. From there, investors may consider contributing to an IRA, increasing their 401(k) contributions further and eventually investing additional money through a taxable brokerage account. The exact order will depend on factors such as taxes, income, debt, liquidity needs and whether someone has access to an employer retirement plan. But one principle remains consistent: the earlier money gets invested, the longer it has to compound. And you do not need to be an expert stock picker to participate in that growth. Investing legend Warren Buffett has repeatedly argued (5) that for most people, "the best thing to do is own the S&P 500 index fund." By tracking the index, investors gain exposure to 500 of America's largest companies across a wide range of industries, providing instant diversification without the need for constant monitoring or active trading. The beauty of this approach is its accessibility — anyone, regardless of wealth, can take advantage of it. Even small amounts can grow over time with tools like Acorns, a popular app that automatically invests your spare change. Signing up for Acorns takes just minutes: link your cards, and Acorns will round up each purchase to the nearest dollar, investing the difference — your spare change — into a diversified portfolio. That coffee for $3.25? It's now a 75-cent investment in your retirement. With Acorns, you can invest in an S&P 500 ETF with as little as $5 — and, if you sign up today with a recurring investment, Acorns will add a $20 bonus to help you begin your investment journey. If you prefer a hands-off, tech-forward approach to building wealth, another option is Vanguard's Digital Advisor, which puts the investing expertise of one of the world's largest asset managers right at your fingertips. It takes the guesswork out of investing by building a personalized portfolio for you using Vanguard's well-known low-cost ETFs and mutual funds — then keeps things running smoothly with automatic rebal

The rise in oil prices has revived inflation fears (Frederic J. BROWN) Oil prices fell back in choppy trading and stock markets were marginally higher Tuesday as investors weighed fading expectations of higher interest rates against concern over oil flows from the Middle East. Oil prices initially rose more than two percent with the United States and Iran appearing to not make much progress towards a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil contracts later gave up those gains, but are still up around 10 percent in the past five days and are trading near their highest levels since early June. "Crude oil has surged over the past few days as hopes of a US-Iran agreement that would fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz have faded," said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com. But "we have also heard contradictory messages from Washington and Tehran", he said. In New York, the Dow and the wider S&P edged higher while the tech-heavy Nasdaq opened lower. In mid-afternoon European trading Frankfurt, London and Paris were all up slightly. "The slight drop in expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes following the weak US payroll report have supported equities," said David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation. "But rising crude oil prices... and further delays in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, have introduced fresh inflation risks." Asian equities ended mixed, with Tokyo closed for a holiday. In their latest exchanges, Donald Trump and Iranian leaders each insisted Monday that they were owed reparation payments by the other. The prospect of oil prices remaining elevated for the time being has revived concerns over inflation and boosted the chances of higher interest rates. Last week's report of a surprise loss of over 20,000 jobs in the US economy last month had eased fears of a Federal Reserve rate hike. Attention now turns to the release of US consumer price data on Wednesday, which could play a key role in guiding the Fed on its next move. "The Fed problem is becoming more awkward," said Patrick Munnelly at the Tickmill Group. "Labour-market cooling can justify patience, but energy-driven inflation can undermine that patience if it lifts headline CPI, gasoline prices and household inflation expectations," he said. - Key figures around 1340 GMT - Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.7 percent at $87.12 per barrel West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.6 percent at $8.64 per barrel New York - DOW: UP 0.3 percent at 54,143.03 points New York - S&P 500: UP 0.1 percent at 7,758.40 New York - Nasdaq Composite: DOWN 0.2 percent at 26,540.53 London - FTSE 100: UP 0.1 percent at 10,870.78 points Story Continues Paris - CAC 40: UP 0.1 percent at 8,733.60 Frankfurt - DAX: UP 0.4 percent at 26,415.45 Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: DOWN 1.1 percent at 25,652.82 (close) Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 0.8 percent at 3,934.09 (close) Tokyo - Nikkei 225: Closed for holiday Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1541 from $1.1543 on Monday Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3499 from $1.3508 Dollar/yen: DOWN at 159.24 yen from 159.31 yen Euro/pound: UP at 85.52 pence from  85.45 pence dan-ajb/bcp/gv/js View Comments

Photo by Michael Siluk/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images Moneywise and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue through links in the content below. Americans who have spent years waiting for cheaper mortgages may face another painful disappointment. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed for a fifth straight week to 6.69% as of Aug. 6 — its highest level since July 2025, according to Freddie Mac (1). Must Read Jeff Bezos backs a platform that lets anyone invest in rental homes for as little as $100 — 6 ways to build wealth like a landlord without actually being one JPMorgan still sees gold hitting $5,000/oz by Q4 — and savvy investors are protecting their wealth with a tax-advantaged Gold IRA. Learn more with a free guide from Priority Gold The tax breaks in Trump's 'big beautiful bill' expire after 2028 — and experts say most people won't act in time. What to do before the window closes Now, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeff Schmid is arguing (2) that monetary policy may not be tight enough. "My primary concern is inflation," Schmid said in an Aug. 4 speech. He called inflation "too high" and said returning it to the Fed's 2% target will require "tighter policy." Schmid didn't specify when or by how much rates should rise. But he isn't alone: The Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.5% to 3.75% (3) at its latest meeting, while three officials voted for a hike. That spells trouble for Americans hoping to buy real estate. At 6.69%, principal and interest on a $400,000 30-year mortgage would cost approximately $2,578 per month. At February's brief low of 5.98%, the same loan would have cost about $2,393. That's roughly $185 more per month, or over $2,200 per year, before property taxes, insurance and homeowners association fees. Mortgage relief is out of reach The Fed doesn't directly set mortgage rates. However, its decisions influence bond-market expectations and borrowing costs throughout the economy. Mortgage rates tend to follow the 10-year Treasury yield, which recently reached 4.65%. That's up sharply from 3.97% before the U.S.-Iran conflict began in February, according to the Associated Press (4). The conflict helped drive oil prices higher, renewing fears that energy costs could reignite inflation. In June, consumer prices were 3.5% higher than one year earlier, while energy prices had surged 15.7% and gasoline prices had jumped 26.7%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (5). There were some encouraging signs. Overall prices fell 0.4% between May and June, while core inflation — which excludes volatile food and energy costs — was 2.6% year over year. Story Continues The next major test arrives Aug. 12, when the BLS releases July's inflation report. A hotter-than-expected number could strengthen the case for another rate hike and place additional upward pressure on borrowing costs. Homebuyers can't control the Fed or the bond market. But they can reconsider how they approach real estate, shop more carefully for financing and position their savings to benefit from higher rates. Read More: Millionaires under 43 hold only 25% of their wealth in stocks. Here's where their money is actually going Get into real estate without taking out a 6.69% mortgage Buying a rental property outright usually requires a large down payment, mortgage approval, closing costs and enough cash to cover maintenance, taxes and unexpected vacancies. At today's rates, financing those expenses could make it much harder for a property to generate positive cash flow. Platforms like Arrived let you buy shares in rental homes, potentially earn dividends and leave the property management to someone else. Backed by investors including Jeff Bezos, Arrived offers SEC-qualified investments starting at $100. Both accredited and non-accredited investors can browse vetted properties, select one and choose how many shares to buy. For a limited time, open an account and add at least $1,000 and Arrived will credit your account with a 1% match. However, fractional investments won't provide the control or personal use that comes with owning a home and real estate investments can lose value. Still want the keys? Make lenders compete For Americans determined to buy a home, the rate quoted by one lender is not necessarily the rate they must accept. Mortgage offers can vary based on the lender, loan type, credit score, down payment and fees. Even a difference of a quarter of a percentage point can translate into thousands of dollars over a long mortgage term. Freddie Mac (6) recommends obtaining quotes from three to five lenders to secure the best mortgage rate possible. To make this process easier, places like the Mortgage Research Center (MRC) can help you quickly compare rates and estimated monthly payments from multiple vetted lenders. By entering basic details — such as your zip code, property type, price range and annual income — you can view mortgage offers tailored to your needs. Homebuyers should also avoid stretching their budget because they expect the Fed to cut rates later. Refinancing may be possible if rates fall, but there is no guarantee that they will and refinancing comes with a new round of fees and qualification requirements. Make higher rates pay you on your savings Higher rates punish borrowers, but they can reward savers. A high-yield account like a Wealthfront Cash Account can be a great place to grow your uninvested cash, offering both competitive interest rates and easy access to your money when you need it. A Wealthfront Cash Account currently offers a base APY of 3.30% through program banks and new clients can get an extra 0.75% boost during their first three months on up to $150,000 for a total variable APY of 4.05%. That's 10 times the national deposit savings rate, according to the FDIC's June report. Additionally, Wealthfront is offering new clients who enable direct deposit ($1,000/monthly minimum) to their Cash Ac

[Data analyzing in commodities energy market: the charts and quotes on display. US WTI crude oil price analysis. Stunning price drop for the last 20 years.] SlavkoSereda/iStock via Getty Images Crude oil futures spiked Monday as prospects for a deal to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping traffic faded further after Iran said it sought billions in U.S. reparations, the unfreezing of Iranian assets, and the removal of American troops in the Persian Gulf. In response [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4630091-trump-demands-iranian-compensation-amid-ongoing-conflict], President Trump issued his own demand for compensation from Iran, "for all of the people that they have killed and gravely wounded with their roadside bombs and many conflicts," and for payments "to the families of the hundreds of thousands of innocent protestors that Iran has killed over the last 50 years." Trump signaled over the weekend that he was prepared to let economic pressure on Iran build rather than launch fresh military strikes to force a reopening of the strait, where visible traffic remains at a trickle compared to the normal usage. The White House also issued another 90-day waiver of the Jones Act, part of Trump's effort to keep gasoline and other fuel costs down. "Given that the strait is still closed, global inventories have been reduced dramatically, and flows are nowhere near normal levels, we could see shorts cover aggressively," TD Securities global head of commodity strategy Bart Melek said in a note. "We continue to expect Brent to trade $10-15 above current levels." Also, crude oil stockpiles in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve have fallen below 300M barrels, the lowest level since January 1983, according to data released by the Department of Energy on Monday. After the two top oil ⁠benchmarks fell more than 7% last week on hopes for a deal that would reopen Hormuz, front-month Nymex crude (CL1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CL1:COM]) for September delivery and front-month Brent crude (CO1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CO1:COM]) for October delivery both jumped 5% on Monday to finish at $82.13/bbl and $87.72/bbl, respectively. U.S. natural gas futures (NG1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NG1:COM]) also rose on hot near-term weather forecasts and global supply concerns stemming from the continuing Middle East conflict; the front-month Nymex September contract gained 4.9% to $2.794/MMBtu. Diesel prices rose even more dramatically, with front-month Nymex ultra-low sulfur diesel (HO1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/HO1:COM]) for September delivery surging 7.3% to $4.1898/gal, as attacks on refineries in Russia by Ukraine and in Saudi Arabia by Houthis added to concerns about Hormuz's continued closure. "The refinery attacks have taken substantial amounts of diesel off the market," Mizuho’s Robert Yawger said in a note. "Unless there are big breakthroughs in the peace process around both conflicts, large amounts of diesel will remain shut in." U.S. inventories of distillate fuels, which include diesel and heating oil, totaled 107.2M barrels as of July ⁠31, ​the lowest for this time of year in 30 years. The energy sector easily ranked as the top gainer among S&P industry sectors, and Exxon Mobil (XOM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XOM]) jumped 4.2% for its largest percentage increase in four months. Nine of the day's 15 biggest gainers on the S&P 500 are in the energy sector: APA (APA [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/APA]) up 9%, Marathon Petroleum (MPC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MPC]) up 7.4%, Diamondback Energy (FANG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FANG]) up 5.8%, Phillips 66 (PSX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/PSX]) up 5.7%, Valero Energy (VLO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VLO]) up 5.6%, EOG Resources (EOG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/EOG]) up 5.5%, Devon Energy (DVN [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DVN]) up 5.5%, Halliburton (HAL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/HAL]) up 5.5%, SLB (SLB [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SLB]) up 5.3%. ETFs: (USO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USO]), (BNO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BNO]), (UCO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UCO]), (SCO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SCO]), (USL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USL]), (DBO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DBO]), (DRIP [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DRIP]), (GUSH [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GUSH]), (USOI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USOI]), (UNG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UNG]), (BOIL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BOIL]), (KOLD [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/KOLD]), (UNL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UNL]), (FCG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FCG]), (XLE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XLE]) MORE ON CRUDE OIL * Bankrupting Tehran: The Big Flaw In Trump's Iran Strategy [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4934217-bankrupting-tehran-the-big-flaw-in-trumps-iran-strategy] * WTI Extends Rebound As Middle East Risks Support Prices [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4934176-wti-extends-rebound-middle-east-risks-support-prices] * XLE: The 40% Rally Has A Hormuz Problem [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4933962-xle-the-40-percent-rally-has-a-hormuz-problem]

New York Stock Exchange trading floor ©Bear Bull Traders U.S. stock futures were mixed but generally positive on Monday as investors weighed diminishing prospects for a rapid resolution to the Iran conflict against expectations for important U.S. inflation data later this week. Markets were also digesting Berkshire Hathaway's (NYSE:BRK.B) latest results, which showed new chief executive Greg Abel beginning to deploy more of the conglomerate's enormous cash reserves into equities. U.S. futures edge higher after weak jobs report S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures moved modestly higher, while Dow futures were slightly weaker as traders assessed developments in the Middle East and looked ahead to Wednesday's U.S. Consumer Price Index report. By 03:05 ET (07:05 GMT), Dow futures were down 25 points, or 0.1%, while S&P 500 futures gained 8 points, or 0.1%. Nasdaq 100 futures performed more strongly, rising 86 points, or 0.3%. Wall Street's major indices advanced on Friday after employment figures showed the U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July. Data for the previous two months was also revised substantially lower, raising fresh questions over the resilience of the labour market. Investors interpreted the weaker employment picture as reducing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates next month. U.S. government bond yields subsequently declined, while the dollar weakened following the report. Iran sets conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz Geopolitical uncertainty remained a significant influence on markets after Iran outlined a series of conditions it says must be satisfied before the Strait of Hormuz can fully reopen. According to Iranian state news agency IRNA, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council said Washington would need to permanently end the war, remove the naval blockade, eliminate sanctions, release frozen Iranian assets and pay war reparations. Iran is also demanding an end to threats and insults as well as U.S. military operations against Tehran's allies. The conditions highlight the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz in Iran's continuing confrontation with the U.S. and Israel. The waterway handles approximately one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, meaning continued restrictions on tanker traffic could have significant consequences for energy markets and the wider global economy. Oil prices strengthened against this backdrop. Brent crude futures rose 0.5% to $83.95 per barrel by 03:23 ET after experiencing significant volatility throughout the conflict. Story Continues Berkshire Hathaway puts more cash to work Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.B) reduced its record cash holdings to $364.7 billion during the second quarter as chief executive Greg Abel increased investment activity and the conglomerate reported a doubling of net profit. Abel, who succeeded Warren Buffett as chief executive at the beginning of the year, oversaw Berkshire becoming a net buyer of equities for the first time in 15 quarters. The company deployed billions of dollars into existing major holdings, including Google parent Alphabet. Berkshire also repurchased $4.53 billion of its own shares during the three months to June, representing a significant acceleration from the relatively limited activity recorded during the first quarter. The conglomerate had resumed share buybacks during the opening three months of the year after going more than a year without repurchasing its own stock. U.S. inflation report becomes the next major test Investors are now preparing for Wednesday's U.S. Consumer Price Index release, which could play an important role in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve's next policy decisions. Headline CPI inflation is forecast to ease slightly to 3.4% year-on-year in July from 3.5% previously. Energy prices remain an important component of the inflation outlook after gasoline costs increased following the start of the Iran conflict in late February. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, is expected to moderate to 2.5% from 2.6%. Vital Knowledge analysts noted that inflation at these levels would remain well above the Federal Reserve's target. Policymakers therefore face a difficult balance between controlling persistent price pressures and avoiding additional damage to an economy where the labour market is beginning to show signs of weakness. China inflation slows more than expected China also delivered softer inflation figures, with consumer price growth slowing more sharply than economists had anticipated in July while factory-gate deflation moderated. Official National Bureau of Statistics data showed consumer prices increased 0.5% year-on-year, down from 1.0% in June and marking the weakest annual increase in six months. Economists had expected inflation of 0.8%. On a monthly basis, CPI declined 0.1%, compared with forecasts for a 0.2% increase and following a 0.3% fall in June. ING analysts highlighted a particularly significant shift in transportation fuel inflation, which slowed to 0.8% year-on-year in July from 15.3% in June. "Other than volatility in energy prices, we continue to see the main drags on inflation coming from food and rent," analysts wrote. Berkshire Hathaway stock price View Comments

(Bloomberg) -- Bond investors are bracing for labor market data Friday, which could cool growing expectations the Federal Reserve raises interest rates at its next meeting in September. Most Read from Bloomberg OpenAI's New Device Will Be Hockey Puck-Sized and Cost Over $300 Iran Wants to Bar US, Israeli Ships From Hormuz in Peace Accord Iran Says Agreement on Hormuz Shipping Reached With Oman Trump Administration Considers Order on Autism and Vaccines Ishbia's Mortgage Firm Suffers Record Drop on Dividend Halt The swaps market has been assigning more than a 50% chance of a quarter-point hike on Sept. 16. These odds edged higher Thursday after the Financial Times reported that Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is prepared to raise rates if inflation readings are hot in the coming weeks. Weakness in the labor market could cool concerns that it is fanning inflation. US inflation data for July including the consumer and producer price indexes are due next week, potentially sealing the direction of interest rates. "If you are the Fed chairman you want a Goldilocks jobs number, and not something too strong or too weak," said Hank Smith, head of investment strategy at Haverford Trust. "Our base case has been for most of this year that we get one rate hike in December and we acknowledge the probabilities have risen that you could see a hike in September." The upcoming data releases have taken on added importance as Warsh's Fed weans markets off so-called "forward guidance," which refers to publicly signaling interest-rate policy far in advance of official decisions. Markets will instead look to draw signals from the data on the outlook for the Fed's rate decisions. Economists expect the employment report will show about 80,000 were created in July, with more jobs added than in June but still among the lowest totals this year. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Tuesday aligned with a stable labor market with limited layoffs. In a sign of growing market uncertainty over the Fed's path, traders have been spending millions in the Treasury options market over the past week for protection against rising yields. Open interest in put options on 10-year note futures surged with strike prices corresponding to yields near 5%, a level briefly exceeded in 2023 for the first time since 2007. Thursday's flows included a hedge against 30-year yields rising to around 5.3%. It reached 5.28% on July 31, the highest level since 2007. In short-term rate futures, activity has been more balanced, reflecting uncertainty about the outcome of the September meeting. Wednesday's session featured a large new position in options on the Secured Overnight Financing Rate anticipating no change in rates. The wager stands to gain if the jobs data are soft. Story Continues Expectations for more than one Fed rate increase this year eased after policymakers held rates steady in July, even as three dissented in favor of raising them. The market is pricing in one move this year and another by mid-2027. Interest-rate strategists at Wells Fargo & Co. this week said the market is likely to respond more forcefully to a strong jobs report than to a weak one, with "any signs of wage pressure" able to "rebuild hike expectations" causing two-year Treasury yields to rise. "After last week's FOMC meeting, markets priced out hikes as they became concerned around the Fed's willingness to hike to fight inflation, but have become more short the long-end given worries of long-run inflation becoming higher," said Molly Brooks, US rates strategist at TD Securities. "A hotter labor print could pour gasoline on the fire, where investors become concerned with both inflation and a labor market that could be reigniting growth." A gauge of wage growth increased to 3.5% in June from 3.4%, which had been the lowest reading in recent years. "With confusion around the Fed reaction function, I do think that surprises in the labor market have the potential to move markets more," said Priya Misra, portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management. Misra said a weaker jobs report would cause a bigger reaction, as a strong labor print would be within market expectations. Dhiraj Narula, an interest-rate strategist at HSBC, said he is looking to next week's inflation print for direction, as Fed members have continued to voice concerns about its persistence. "We think next week's inflation data is more important, particularly as several policymakers who supported holding rates steady in July have noted that further signs of persistent inflation would motivate action," Narula said. --With assistance from Edward Bolingbroke. Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek How Apple and India Built an Alternative iPhone Production Hub Lululemon Is At War With Itself TikTok Withheld a Safety Feature From Millions. One Died by Suicide Armed With $10 Billion, Sequoia's Leaders Plan Its New Era Americans Are Rethinking Their Love Affair With Plant Milks ©2026 Bloomberg L.P. View Comments

BANGKOK (AP) — Shares were mixed in Asia on Friday after a modest retreat on Wall Street, while oil prices gained more than 1%. Selling of computer chipmakers and other stocks linked to the boom in artificial intelligence appeared to taper off a bit as Tokyo's Nikkei 225 lost 0.3% to 65,500.10. The Kospi in South Korea dropped 0.8% to 6,242.88 and Taiwan's Taiex fell 0.4%. The Shanghai Composite index gained 0.8% to 3,931.54 after China reported its exports grew at a slightly slower but still robust pace of about 24% in July on strong demand for electronics and other high-tech products. China's huge trade surplus narrowed last month and imports also slowed. Hong Kong's Hang Seng edged 0.2% higher, to 25,582.34. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 slipped less than 0.1%, to 9,265.20. On Thursday, stocks declined on Wall Street as oil prices rose and more company earnings reports rolled in. The S&P 500 fell 0.2% and the Dow industrials fell 0.9%. The Nasdaq composite fell 0.1%. The price of Brent crude rose nearly 4% on Thursday as progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, vital to securing stable oil supplies, remained unclear. Iran has said it is close to a deal with Oman for reopening the strait. U.S. President Donald Trump has also previously said a deal is close, but the conflict has had many starts and stops over the past five months. Reopening the strait may require a compromise since the Trump administration has ruled out Iran charging fees to ships. But Iran has insisted on some measure of control, saying the strait will not go back to being an international waterway. As of early Friday, a barrel of Brent, the international standard, was up 1.6% at $83.78. U.S. benchmark crude oil advanced 1.2% to $78.22 per barrel. A fifth of the world's traded oil and natural gas once passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have surged as high as $113 due to the war and higher prices have added more heat to inflation by raising the price of gasoline and raising costs for shipping. While markets are still weighed down by worries over the war and over a possible bubble in investments in artificial intelligence, strong overall corporate profits have helped allay concerns on Wall Street about shares being overpriced. Roughly 85% of companies in the S&P 500 have reported their results and overall earnings growth for the period is shaping up to be the strongest since 2021. Warner Bros. Discovery rose 1.7% after reporting earnings that came in ahead of what investors were expecting. Molson Coors rose 1.3% after also reporting encouraging financial results. Story Continues On the losing end, Honeywell Aerospace fell 23.2% after turning in results that fell well short of forecasts. AppLovin slumped 19.7% after the digital ad company reported mixed financial results for its most recent quarter. Outside of earnings, SpaceX rose 6.1%. More than 911 million SpaceX shares held by early investors and employees became eligible for sale Thursday as a lockup period for the stock expired. That is more than double the shares that were initially offered to the public for sale during the initial public offering for Elon Musk's company. SpaceX jumped as high as $225 a share following its market debut in June, but has since slumped below its initial $135 offering price. The stock is currently trading around $115. The latest monthly jobs report, for July, will be released Friday. U.S. employment remains strong, but growth in hiring has been easing. A weekly report on Thursday showed the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits rose last week, though layoffs remain in the historically healthy range of the past few years. Employers pulled back on hiring in June, adding only 57,000 jobs. In other dealings early Friday, the dollar fell to 158.35 Japanese yen from 158.42 yen. The euro was unchanged at $1.1524. ___ Associated Press Writer Damian J. Troise in New York contributed to this report. View Comments

BANGKOK (AP) — Asian shares were mostly lower and South Korea's Kospi dropped more than 4% on Thursday following declines for some Big Tech giants including memory chipmaker SK Hynix. Oil prices held steady, with Brent crude trading near $79 a barrel. Uncertainty about the direction of the U.S. war with Iran is still overhanging markets despite hopes for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Markets will get an update Friday on U.S. jobs with the monthly employment report for July, and analysts say investors appear to be bracing for its potential impact. "Asia's chip selloff looks like a combination of profit-taking and risk reduction ahead of Friday's nonfarm payroll report," Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said in a commentary. Strong corporate profits and expectations for more growth ahead generally have been steering U.S. stocks higher. But Asian benchmarks have been hit by bouts of selling of computer chipmakers and other companies related to the boom in artificial intelligence. SK Hynix was down 9.7% after dropping ahead of the open in Seoul, while its larger rival Samsung Electronics lost 6.1% in the latest rout for shares linked to the AI boom. The Kospi lost 4.5% to 6,306.40. Japan's Nikkei 225 lost 1.2% to 65,538.44. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng declined 1.8% to 25,463.51, while the Shanghai Composite index was nearly unchanged at 3,878.92. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.5%. U.S. President Donald Trump said a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was coming soon. But there have been many stops and starts during the five-month-old conflict that has stifled the global supply of oil and rattled energy markets. The price of Brent crude, the international standard, fell 0.3% to $79.24 a barrel. Oil prices have been swinging for months and were as high as $102 per barrel at one point during the conflict, jolting already stubbornly high inflation. Higher oil prices pushed gasoline prices higher and increased shipping costs for a wide range of products. U.S. benchmark crude oil declined 0.4% to $74.93 a barrel. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 slipped 0.2% from an all-time high to close at 7,723.55. The Dow industrials rose 0.5% to 54,349.12. The Nasdaq composite lost 0.8% to 26,363.44. Among big technology companies losing ground, Google's parent company, Alphabet, fell 4% and Microsoft lost 1.1%. Overall, the market has been rising as companies head into the closing stretch of their latest round of earnings reports with sharp overall gains. Three-quarters of the companies within the S&P 500 have reported results so far, and Wall Street expects profit growth of 50% when they are all finished. Story Continues The Walt Disney Co. rose 3.6% after easily beating Wall Street's profit forecasts, helped by a $1 billion box office haul from "Toy Story 5" and theme park revenue. Booking Holdings jumped 6.6% after reporting that strong travel demand drove profit and revenue growth during its most recent quarter. Elon Musk's SpaceX fell 13.6% following the release late Tuesday of its first quarterly report as a public company, which showed that it sharply boosted spending on artificial intelligence. The company did help give semiconductor giant Nvidia a 3.4% boost after announcing it would exclusively use that company's chips for its artificial intelligence technology. Musk had said earlier he would use chips from both Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices for SpaceX and his electric vehicle company, Tesla. Inflation concerns have been hanging over markets and the Federal Reserve. The central bank has been holding its key benchmark rate steady as it monitors the costs and the impact on the economy. In other dealings early Thursday, the dollar flipped to 157.73 Japanese yen from 157.77 yen. The euro fell to $1.1549 from $1.1555. ___ Associated Press writer Damian J. Troise contributed. View Comments

Walmart Inc. WMT entered fiscal 2027 with solid sales growth, but higher fuel costs created a meaningful drag on operating income in the first quarter. The company absorbed approximately $175 million of higher-than-planned fuel costs across its global distribution and fulfillment operations. This pressure reduced operating income growth by about 250 basis points. Even with the added expense, adjusted operating income in constant currency increased 5.1% to $7.5 billion, while reported operating income rose 5%. The margin impact was also visible in the broader cost structure. Walmart's gross profit rate increased six basis points to 24.3%, helped by favorable merchandise category mix and business mix, including advertising. However, higher fuel costs in the supply chain partly offset those benefits. Adjusted operating expenses as a percentage of net sales rose 23 basis points to 21.1%. Walmart also indicated that elevated fuel costs are affecting both the company and its suppliers through the cost of goods sold. If the current cost environment continues, WMT expects somewhat higher retail price inflation in the second quarter and the second half of the year. Despite the first-quarter pressure, Walmart maintained its fiscal 2027 outlook for adjusted operating income growth of 6% to 8% in constant currency. It also expects second-quarter adjusted operating income growth of 7% to 10%. The key takeaway is that fuel costs remain a near-term margin headwind, while Walmart's unchanged guidance reflects its expectation that profitability will improve after the first quarter. How KR & COST Are Managing Margin Pressure The Kroger Co. KR saw transportation costs weigh on margins in the first quarter of 2026. KR's gross margin declined 30 basis points year over year to 22.7%, primarily due to the mix impact of higher fuel sales, increased transportation costs, egg deflation and planned price investments. Excluding fuel, rent, depreciation, amortization and adjustment items, Kroger's FIFO gross margin rate decreased 9 basis points, with higher transportation costs contributing 15 basis points of pressure. Costco Wholesale Corporation COST faced fuel-related margin pressure in the third quarter of fiscal 2026. COST's reported gross margin rate declined 21 basis points year over year to 11.04%, reflecting sales-mix changes and a lower gas margin rate, among other factors. Higher gasoline prices also increased transportation costs. Excluding gas inflation, Costco's gross margin rate improved one basis point, showing that fuel-price inflation had a meaningful effect on the reported margin comparison. Story Continues WMT Stock Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates Shares of Walmart have risen 7.9% over the past year compared with the industry's growth of 5.3%. WMT Price Performance Versus IndustryZacks Investment Research Image Source: Zacks Investment Research From a valuation standpoint, WMT trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 36.22, higher than the industry's average of 32.85. WMT Valuation Compared to IndustryZacks Investment Research Image Source: Zacks Investment Research The Zacks Consensus Estimate for WMT's current and next fiscal year earnings per share implies year-over-year growth of 9.5% and 13.1%, respectively. Walmart currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Walmart Inc. (WMT) : Free Stock Analysis Report The Kroger Co. (KR) : Free Stock Analysis Report Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com). Zacks Investment Research View Comments

Quick Read XRP has fallen 42% to $1.07 in 2026 and needs a 73% rebound in five months to end the year at the $1.85 price it started at. The Fed has to start cutting rates before crypto money comes back, and that means inflation falling from 4.1%. The CLARITY Act has to pass, but the Senate has not brought it to the floor and Polymarket now gives the bill a 14% chance of passing this year. Two retirees, same $1 million, same 4% rule, buy one finished with $1.4 million, the other hit $0 in 12 years. Our free reader guide explains the flaw that separated them, and the income-first method built to avoid it. Ripple's native cryptocurrency, XRP (CRYPTO:XRP), started the year trading around $1.85 and hovers near $1.07 today after dropping over 42% in seven months. The XRP price would have to climb 73% in the next five months just to finish 2026 where it started. That is well short of the $2 and $3 targets that many forecasted the coin would hit heading into the year, and it is still a big move to ask for in five months. So what would have to happen for the XRP price to get back to break-even by December?insta_photos / Shutterstock.com Why XRP Cannot Recover Until the Crypto Market DoesA HIP A HUB STOCK / Shutterstock.com Ripple has given XRP holders plenty to be excited about this year. The company bought its way deeper into institutional finance, the XRP Ledger picked up new upgrades, and the spot ETFs brought in fresh money. But none of it has moved the XRP price, because XRP and the rest of the crypto market have been under bearish pressure. The pressure started on February 28, when the U.S. and Israel launched a war against Iran. The Strait of Hormuz closed soon after, cutting off the route for about a fifth of the world's oil trade, and gasoline went above $4 a gallon. The 4% Rule is Broken, Built On A World That No Longer Exists Every retiree knows about the 4% rule, but it frames retirement as a slow liquidation and still causes retirees with seven-figure accounts to agonize over a dinner out. There's a different way to run the math that makes more sense today. Build an income floor — dividends, interest, and Social Security that cover your essential bills every month — and you never have to sell shares into a down market just to pay them. Our free reader guide, The 4% Rule Is Broken, walks through it in about 15 minutes. Access the report here. Then U.S. inflation climbed from 2.4% in February to 4.1% by June. Rate cuts were the fuel behind crypto's 2025 rally, and the Fed under Kevin Warsh has since gone from cutting rates to penciling in a hike before the end of the year. So the money that would have gone into crypto has gone into cash and AI stocks instead. Story Continues Oil prices have already started falling, and Trump said on August 3 that he expects talks with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. That would put oil supply back on the market and let inflation cool, which would give the Fed room to cut rates again instead of raising them, and lower rates make crypto far more attractive to investors. Market sentiment would improve from there, and Bitcoin could start rallying again. When Bitcoin rallies, it pulls the rest of the crypto market up with it, and XRP would ride that wave higher. The CLARITY Act Is the Catalyst XRP Is Still Waiting OnMaksim Safaniuk / Shutterstock.com The SEC and CFTC jointly classified XRP as a digital commodity on March 17, settling years of legal doubt about what XRP is. However, regulators can withdraw an interpretation whenever they choose, and the next administration could do exactly that. The CLARITY Act would put the same classification into federal law and hand oversight to the CFTC, which is the permanence banks need before they build anything on XRP. Wall Street has built its XRP numbers on this getting settled. JPMorgan backed the bill publicly on July 1, describing clearer rules as removing one of the biggest obstacles to institutional participation in crypto, and the bank's own forecast has spot XRP ETFs pulling in $4 billion to $8.4 billion in their first year once that clarity arrives. Standard Chartered built a price roadmap on the same inflow range and forecast XRP could reach $12.50 by 2028. The bill has been on the Senate calendar since June 1 without reaching the floor. Today is the last day leadership can file a cloture motion—the step that clears the way for a floor vote—and still get the vote before Friday. But no motion has been filed on the bill. Senators leave for recess on August 10 and return on September 14 to a calendar already crowded with funding fights. Polymarket traders now give the CLARITY Act a 14% chance of becoming law in 2026, down from above 80% in February. XRP ETF Inflows Have to Come BackTapati Rinchumrus / Shutterstock.com XRP ETFs pulled in $666.61 million in their first month after launching in November, and another $499.91 million in December. Those two months alone account for 77% of all the money the funds have taken in across nine months of trading. However, the buying has faded for most of 2026. The strongest month this year was May, when investors put in $131.94 million while the CLARITY Act was moving through committee, and by the end of July inflows had dropped to $27.29 million. Investors have added $1.51 billion to the funds since launch, but those holdings are worth just under $1 billion today, because XRP has lost so much of its value since that money went in. Standard Chartered expected those funds to take in $4 billion to $8 billion in their first year of trading, and the bank built its XRP price forecasts on that money arriving. But nine months in, the funds have gathered only $1.51 billion, which is far below expectations. The funds currently hold 992.5 million XRP that nobody can sell while investors keep their shares. For the XRP price to rally back to the level it was at the start of the year, monthly ETF inflows have to reach $300 million, as that is what signals

Moneywise and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue through links in the content below. President Donald Trump has long portrayed himself as a champion of free markets, domestic energy production and corporate America. But after some of the country's largest oil companies reported massive profits while drivers continued paying more than $4 a gallon for gas, Trump decided they had gone too far. Must Read Jeff Bezos backs a platform that lets anyone invest in rental homes for as little as $100 — 6 ways to build wealth like a landlord without actually being one JPMorgan still sees gold hitting $5,000/oz by Q4 — and savvy investors are protecting their wealth with a tax-advantaged Gold IRA. Learn more with a free guide from Priority Gold The tax breaks in Trump's 'big beautiful bill' expire after 2028 — and experts say most people won't act in time. What to do before the window closes "Based on a shortage, they're making too much money. I don't like it, and I should be the last one to say because I'm a big free enterprise guy — nobody bigger," Trump told reporters (1) in the Oval Office. He specifically called out two of America's biggest oil producers. "Chevron, too much money. Exxon Mobil, too much, too much money," he said. Exxon Mobil reported $14.5 billion (2) in profit for the second quarter, more than double the $7.1 billion it earned during the same period a year earlier. Chevron brought in roughly $12.1 billion (3), up from about $2.5 billion one year ago. Trump argued that oil producers should pass some of that windfall back to consumers. "They ought to give some of that back to the public, and they better cut the retail price, the consumer price," he said, before hammering home the point once again. "Too much money — you're surprised I'm saying it? I'll say it loud and clear, I'm not happy about it." Americans feel the squeeze — but is Big Oil really the bad guy? For oil companies, higher crude prices can translate into billions of dollars in additional profits. For ordinary Americans, they can mean a painful trip to the gas station. The national average price of regular gasoline stood at $4.09 a gallon in early August, compared with about $3.15 a year earlier, according to AAA (4). Diesel now averages more than $5.37 a gallon, compared with $3.73 one year ago. But enormous profits do not necessarily prove that oil companies deliberately inflated prices. Andrea Woods, a spokesperson for the American Petroleum Institute, which represents the nation's oil and gas companies, said (5) that higher prices are "driven by global supply, demand and continued uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz and other critical shipping lanes — not by any one company." Story Continues The Iran conflict has indeed disrupted the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important energy routes. Roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply normally passes through the waterway (6), so restricting that flow created a sudden shortage and sent crude prices soaring. Woods added that the oil industry shares Trump's goal of "delivering affordable, reliable energy for consumers." And while Trump says prices will "drop through the floor" once the Iran conflict ends, the current squeeze stems from a war launched under his own administration. That makes his decision to direct the public's anger toward oil companies all the more striking. No matter who deserves the blame, one thing is certain: Prices have been rising, and gasoline is far from the only expense stretching household budgets. Since the beginning of 2020, the CPI food index has risen 34% (7), while the energy index has climbed 45% (8). Look further back, and you'll see that inflation has been steadily chipping away at the value of Americans' hard-earned dollars for decades. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis (9), $100 in 2026 has the same purchasing power as just $11.74 did in 1970. That's right. $100 became less than $12. The good news? Savvy investors have long found ways to shield their wealth from inflation's bite — no matter what shock the world throws at them or who's in the White House. Read More: Millionaires under 43 hold only 25% of their wealth in stocks. Here's where their money is actually going Own an asset governments cannot print When it comes to preserving wealth and fighting inflation, few assets have stood the test of time like gold. Its appeal is simple: unlike fiat currencies, the yellow metal can't be printed at will by central banks. Gold is also considered the ultimate safe haven. It's not tied to any one country, currency or economy, and in times of economic turmoil or geopolitical uncertainty, investors often flock to it — driving prices higher. Ray Dalio, founder of the world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, has repeatedly highlighted gold's role in a resilient portfolio. "People don't have, typically, an adequate amount of gold in their portfolio," Dalio told CNBC last year. "When bad times come, gold is a very effective diversifier." Over the past five years, as inflation continued to chip away at the purchasing power of the dollar, gold has climbed 123%. Other prominent voices see further potential. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has said that in this environment, gold can "easily" rise to $10,000 an ounce. One way to invest in gold that can also provide significant tax advantages is to open a gold IRA with the help of Goldco. Gold IRAs allow investors to hold physical gold or gold-related assets within a retirement account, thereby combining the tax advantages of an IRA with the protective benefits of investing in gold, making it a compelling potential option for those wanting to ensure their retirement funds are diversified during rough economic times. Goldco offers free shipping and access to a library of retirement resources. Plus, the company will match up to 10% of qualified purchases in free silver. If you're curious wheth

By Robert Harvey LONDON, Aug 5 (Reuters) - Glencore earned 66 times more from energy trading in the first half of ‌2026 than it did a year earlier, joining other ‌major commodity traders profiting from market turmoil created by the Iran war. Glencore booked $2.66 billion ​in first-half adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) from trading on Wednesday, up from just $40 million a year earlier. U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday accused oil majors ExxonMobil and Chevron of making "too much ‌money" with high gasoline ⁠prices a risk for his Republican Party as it seeks to retain control of Congress in November ⁠midterm elections. Glencore joins the trading desks of European oil majors BP, Shell, TotalEnergies and rival trading house Trafigura in reaping billions in profits ​this year. Trafigura ​reported $4.1 billion in net profit for ​the six months through March. Crude, ‌fuel and LNG prices hit all-time record or multi-year highs earlier this year as the Iran war effectively halted tanker traffic leaving the Gulf. "The Oil and Gas department was the primary contributor, which benefited from significant dislocations across LNG, oil and shipping markets," ‌Glencore CEO Gary Nagle said. Its first-half results ​put it on track to rebound ​from three straight years ​of lower earnings from energy marketing. Its trading volumes surged ‌to around 5.2 million barrels ​per day of ​crude and fuels, about 24% more than its 2025 average, Glencore's results showed on Wednesday. Looking ahead to the second half, ​Glencore said that significant ‌inventory drawdowns had left oil markets increasingly sensitive to ​disruptions. Glencore shares were up 3.4% at 1130 GMT. (Reporting by ​Robert Harvey; editing by Jason Neely) View Comments

By Robert Harvey LONDON, Aug 5 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Wednesday after Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi rebels said they attacked a Saudi oil tanker in ‌the Red Sea, denting hopes of a de-escalation in Iran war hostilities that ‌could restore shipping traffic and oil flows in the Middle East. Brent crude futures were up $1.51, or 1.9%, ​at $80.87 a barrel by 1123 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures gained 90 cents, or 1.19%, to $76.67. The Houthis said they had launched a missile attack on a Saudi oil tanker off the coast of Yanbu, a key port for Saudi crude oil exports. That ‌drove oil prices higher on ⁠Wednesday, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. Saudi officials did not respond immediately to a request for comment. The reports of the attack dented ⁠investor hopes of a de-escalation in the Middle East conflict after Qatar said on Tuesday that mediators were making progress with efforts to end the war. That drove down oil prices ​by ​5% on Tuesday, with Brent closing below $80 a ​barrel for the first time since ‌July 13. Tehran, meanwhile, denied that peace talks were under way, contrary to assertions by U.S. President Donald Trump. "While the immediate geopolitical premium has unwound, the broader supply picture warrants caution," said Priyanka Sachdeva, head of market insights at Phillip Nova. Before the war started, about 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas passed through the ‌Strait of Hormuz. "The main sticking point appears to ​be whether Iran will continue to insist on a ​degree of control over the waterway, ​and whether the U.S. will stand its ground and refuse that ‌outcome," IG analysts said in a ​note. U.S. crude and gasoline ​inventories rose while distillate stocks fell last week, market sources said on Tuesday, citing data from the American Petroleum Institute. Crude stocks rose by about 2.7 million ​barrels in the week to ‌July 31, the sources said. Elsewhere, China further relaxed controls on fuel exports ​in August. (Reporting by Robert Harvey in London, Helen Clark in Perth and ​Jeslyn Lerh in SingaporeEditing by David Goodman) View Comments

Quick Read The Iran conflict caused the largest oil supply shock in history, cutting global production by 13.6 million barrels per day and rapidly draining inventories. Diamondback Energy posted $5.56 billion in revenue and $2.33 billion in free cash flow, beating Wall Street estimates and raising full-year production guidance. CEO Kaes Van't Hof argues rebuilding depleted global inventories has structurally raised the oil price floor, keeping gasoline above $4 and complicating Fed rate cuts. Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Diamondback Energy didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today. For much of the past decade, investors treated oil price spikes as temporary disruptions that eventually faded. That assumption is becoming harder to defend. The Iran war has fundamentally changed the balance between global supply and demand, and the world's oil market is still struggling to recover. Justin Sullivan / Getty Images Before hostilities erupted, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded near $65 per barrel while Brent crude hovered around $70. Both briefly surged above $100 after the Strait of Hormuz was effectively shut down, and although prices have eased from those peaks, WTI and Brent remain above $80 today. Diamondback Energy's (NASDAQ:FANG) latest earnings report suggests that elevated prices may no longer be the exception -- they could become the baseline. Diamondback's Results Tell the Story Diamondback Energy delivered one of the strongest earnings reports in the energy sector, according to its quarterly earnings release. Revenue climbed to $5.56 billion, beating the $4.81 billion Wall Street consensus and rising from $3.68 billion a year earlier. Adjusted earnings reached $6.48 per share, ahead of the $6.01 analysts expected. The numbers extended well beyond the income statement. Metric Q2 2026 Revenue $5.56 billion Adjusted EPS $6.48 Free Cash Flow $2.33 billion Production 1.018 million BOE/d Oil Production 525 MBO/d Management also raised full-year production guidance while forecasting 517,000 to 527,000 barrels of oil per day during the third quarter. Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Diamondback Energy didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today. Diamondback isn't benefiting from a temporary windfall alone. It is generating enough cash to expand production while returning capital to shareholders, illustrating how higher commodity prices quickly translate into stronger financial results for efficient producers. Story Continues 24/7 Wall St. Think high gas prices are just a phase? Think again. A permanent supply shock has rewritten the global market, turning massive producer profits into a long-term tax on your wallet. © 24/7 Wall St. Management Thinks Oil Has Changed Permanently The more important message came in CEO Kaes Van't Hof's shareholder letter. He called the Iran conflict "the largest supply shock in the history of the global oil market." According to Diamondback, global production fell by 13.6 million barrels per day, while worldwide inventories declined by an estimated 3.8 million barrels per day after the conflict began, accelerating to roughly 4.6 million barrels per day in May. Although exports through the region are recovering in stages, Van't Hof argued that the market has fundamentally changed. "These draws will eventually have to reverse, and we believe the restocking required to rebuild global inventories has structurally raised the floor for oil prices compared to pre-conflict prices." That is an important distinction. Inventories don't replenish overnight. Even if geopolitical tensions ease tomorrow, producers must rebuild depleted stockpiles before supply catches demand. That creates persistent buying pressure that supports higher oil prices. Ironically, Saudi Aramco warned early in the conflict that unless shipping disruptions ended quickly, the consequences would prove lasting. Diamondback's latest assessment suggests exactly that scenario is unfolding. The Inflation Problem Isn't Going Away For producers like Diamondback, Chevron (NYSE:CVX), and ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), stronger crude prices generally expand profits and free cash flow. For consumers, however, gasoline prices above $4 per gallon continue squeezing household budgets and remain one of inflation's largest contributors. President Trump criticized Chevron, ExxonMobil, and other producers yesterday over gasoline prices, seemingly absolving himself of any responsibility and ignoring that integrated oil companies have little influence over prices set at the pump. Oil companies simply sell into the market they are given. That has broader implications for investors. If energy inflation remains elevated, the Federal Reserve may find it harder to declare victory over inflation. Diamondback's comments point toward sustained upward pressure on prices, increasing the possibility that interest rates rise sooner than markets currently expect. Key Takeaway In short, Diamondback's quarterly results were impressive, but its outlook may matter even more. The company's earnings release and shareholder letter argue that the Iran conflict didn't simply create a temporary spike in oil prices -- it permanently raised the market's starting point by draining global inventories that now must be rebuilt. Granted, peace negotiations could eventually restore more supply. Regardless, rebuilding millions of barrels of depleted inventories will take time, supporting crude prices well above pre-war levels. For investors, that favors efficient energy producers like Diamondback. For consumers, it suggests expensive gasoline -- and the inflation pressure that comes with it -- may be the new normal. Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Diamondback Energy didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today. Contact editorial@247wallst.com for any questi

Wall Street delivered mixed results in July. The Dow posted a modest monthly gain, marking its fourth consecutive positive month, per CNBC. The S&P 500 ended little changed for July, while the Nasdaq recorded a notable monthly decline as investors rotated away from high-growth technology stocks amid rising bond yields. The tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 slumped 3.6% over the past month (as of July 31, 2026). Rising Oil Prices Add to Inflation Worries Energy markets remained under pressure after renewed geopolitical tensions disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Higher oil and gasoline prices have reignited concerns about inflation and consumer spending, even as the latest University of Michigan survey showed improving consumer sentiment. United States Brent Oil Fund LP BNO has jumped about 27.8% over the past month (as of July 31, 2026). Treasury Yields Surge on Fed Uncertainty Treasury yields climbed sharply following the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged at the month-end meeting without offering clear forward guidance. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closed the month at 4.75%, its highest level since January 2025 (per CNBC), while the 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.27%, the highest since 2007. Investors grew increasingly concerned that elevated borrowing costs could pressure equity valuations (read: Fed Holds Rates Steady, May Hike Ahead: ETFs in Focus). Semiconductor Stocks Suffer Worst Month Since 2008 The semiconductor industry remained one of the market's weakest areas despite Friday's rebound, per the same CNBC source. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF SMH remained down nearly 17% for July, putting the fund on track for its worst monthly performance since the 2008 financial crisis as investors reassessed AI-related valuations and the impact of higher interest rates. AI Spending Keeps Tech Momentum Intact Strong earnings from Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) reassured investors that AI investment remains robust. Amazon jumped 15% on July 31 on strong cloud growth, while Microsoft extended gains after upbeat Azure results. MSFT and AMZN are up about 21% and 12.4% over the past month (as of July 31, 2026). Together with Meta (down 9.2% past month) and Alphabet (down 0.4% past month), the hyperscalers now expect to spend $720-$745 billion on capital projects in 2026, easing concerns over an AI spending slowdown, per CNBC. Apple Lags Despite Strong Sales Not all Big Tech names participated in the rally in July. Apple fell more than 7% as weaker Services and China revenues offset solid iPhone sales, while Meta also ended the week lower (read: ETFs to Watch as META Sinks Post Q2 Earnings Miss, Poor Cash Position). Story Continues Top-Performing ETF Areas of July Against the above-mentioned backdrop, below we highlight a few winning ETFs of July. Shipping & Oil – Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF BWET – Up 74.2% The Middle East conflict and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted key shipping routes, driving a sharp surge in freight rates. This has strengthened the investment case for BWET. The fund's expense ratio is 3.50%. Oil ETFs like BNO and DBO also surged in July in the Hormuz context. Rate-Related Niche ETFs – Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF (PFIX) – Up 26.0% There are some niche ETFs that guard against rising rates. PFIX is such an option. The ETF PFIX looks to hedge interest rate movements arising from rising long-term interest rates and to benefit from market stress when fixed-income volatility increases. The fund yields 8.06% annually and charges 50 bps in fees. China Tech – Roundhill China Magnificent Seven ETF MAGC – Up 22.5% While the fund has a very small asset base of about $14.0 million despite making a debut in October 2024, this fund's price surged in July as Chinese AI companies came up with the success of low-cost AI models. KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF KWEB, with an asset base of $5.5 billion, also added 13.4% over the past month. The country's Moonshot AI unveiled Kimi K3 on July 16, the largest open-source AI model released so far, per Fortune, as quoted on Yahoo Finance.   The company says K3 delivers performance close to Anthropic's Fable 5 at a much lower cost (read: Moonshot AI Raises the Stakes for Big Tech? ETFs in Focus). Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): ETF Research Reports United States Brent Oil ETF (BNO): ETF Research Reports KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB): ETF Research Reports This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com). Zacks Investment Research View Comments

Wall Street delivered mixed results in July. The Dow posted a modest monthly gain, marking its fourth consecutive positive month, per CNBC. The S&P 500 ended little changed for July, while the Nasdaq recorded a notable monthly decline as investors rotated away from high-growth technology stocks amid rising bond yields. The tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 slumped 3.6% over the past month (as of July 31, 2026). Rising Oil Prices Add to Inflation Worries Energy markets remained under pressure after renewed geopolitical tensions disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Higher oil and gasoline prices have reignited concerns about inflation and consumer spending, even as the latest University of Michigan survey showed improving consumer sentiment. United States Brent Oil Fund LP BNO has jumped about 27.8% over the past one month (as of July 31, 2026). Treasury Yields Surge on Fed Uncertainty Treasury yields climbed sharply following the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged at its month-end meeting without offering clear forward guidance. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closed the month at 4.75%, its highest level since January 2025 (per CNBC), while the 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.27%, the highest since 2007. Investors grew increasingly concerned that elevated borrowing costs could pressure equity valuations (read: Fed Holds Rates Steady, May Hike Ahead: ETFs in Focus). Semiconductor Stocks Suffer Worst Month Since 2008 The semiconductor industry remained one of the market's weakest areas despite Friday's rebound, per the same CNBC source. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF SMH remained down nearly 17% for July, putting the fund on track for its worst monthly performance since the 2008 financial crisis as investors reassessed AI-related valuations and the impact of higher interest rates. AI Spending Keeps Tech Momentum Intact Strong earnings from Amazon AMZN and Microsoft MSFT reassured investors that AI investment remains robust. Amazon jumped 15% on July 31 on strong cloud growth, while Microsoft extended gains after upbeat Azure results. MSFT and AMZN are up about 21% and 12.4% over the past one month (as of July 31, 2026). Together with Meta (down 9.2% past month) and Alphabet (down 0.4% past month the hyperscalers now expect to spend $720 billion-$745 billion on capital projects in 2026, easing concerns over an AI spending slowdown, per CNBC. Apple Lags Despite Strong Sales Not all Big Tech names participated in the rally in July. Apple fell more than 7% as weaker Services and China revenue offset solid iPhone sales, while Meta also ended the month lower (read: ETFs to Watch as META Sinks Post Q2 Earnings Miss, Poor Cash Position). Story Continues Best-Performing Leveraged ETFs of July in Focus Against this backdrop, below we highlight the top-performing leveraged ETFs of July. Inverse SpaceX – Tradr 2X Short SpaceX Daily ETF SPCG – Up 108.8% Space Exploration Technologies Corp SPCX has lost about 30% over the past month (as of July 31, 2026). On July 16, SpaceX's Starship rocket triggered a last-second abort before the liftoff of its 13th flight test from Texas, which weighed on the stock. The stock whipsawed last week, swinging from an all-time low to a sharp rebound before closing at a new low. SpaceX stock has shed about 30% from its $150 market debut last month and remains down roughly 50% from its all-time high of $225.64, per Yahoo Finance. GraniteShares 2x Short SpaceX Daily ETF SNK, Leverage Shares 2X Short SPCX Daily ETF SSPC and Defiance Daily Target 2X Short SpaceX ETF SPCQ too lost about 100% each over the past month. Inverse IONQ – Defiance Daily Target 2x Short IONQ ETF IONZ – Up 68.5% IONQ Inc. IONQ has lost about 29.1% over the past month. Risk aversion toward high-growth technology stocks and IONQ's rich valuation weighed on the stock in July. Leveraged PayPal – Direxion Daily PYPL Bull 2X ETF PYPU – Up 53.1% PayPal PYPL surged about 25% over the past month over the acquisition news.  In mid-July, Stripe and private equity firm Advent International have jointly offered to acquire PayPal in a deal valued at more than $53 billion, according to Reuters, as quoted on Yahoo Finance. The proposal marks one of the biggest potential transactions in the digital payments industry in recent years (read: Stripe, Advent to Buy PayPal in a $53B Deal? ETFs in Focus). Leveraged JD.Com – KraneShares 2x Long JD Daily ETF KJD – Up 50.4% JD.Com Inc JD shares rose 24% over the past month. Chinese AI companies have benefited from the success of low-cost AI models lately, which has boosted sentiment across the Chinese technology sector. The country's Moonshot AI unveiled Kimi K3 on July 16, the largest open-source AI model released so far, per Fortune, as quoted on Yahoo Finance. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) : Free Stock Analysis Report Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) : Free Stock Analysis Report VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): ETF Research Reports JD.com, Inc. (JD) : Free Stock Analysis Report PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) : Free Stock Analysis Report United States Brent Oil ETF (BNO): ETF Research Reports Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) : Free Stock Analysis Report IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com). Zacks Investment Research View Comments

Somnigroup International Inc. SGI is slated to report second-quarter 2026 results on Aug. 6, 2026, before market open. The company is likely to report bottom and top-line growth when it posts the quarterly results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company's earnings is pegged at 58 cents per share, which indicates an increase of 9.4% from the year-ago quarter's reported figure. The consensus mark has risen a penny in the past 30 days. For second-quarter revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $1.9 billion, indicating a 0.5% rise from the year-ago quarter's reported figure. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 3.5%. Its earnings outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.8%, on average, in the trailing four quarters. Key Factors to Note For SGI's Q2 Somnigroup's quarterly performance is expected to have benefited from growth in premium and innovation-led products, expanding direct-to-consumer sales, market share gains and higher sales of sleep accessories. The company is focused on strengthening its vertically integrated business model by combining manufacturing, wholesale distribution, direct-to-consumer retail and e-commerce operations. This integrated approach enables the company to better manage its supply chain, improve inventory efficiency, enhance customer service and support profitability. The company continues to drive growth through product innovation, introducing premium mattresses, smart sleep technologies and complementary sleep accessories that differentiate its brands and encourage consumers to trade up to higher-value products. Somnigroup is expanding its direct-to-consumer business by investing in its retail store network, digital platforms and omnichannel capabilities. The company is investing in marketing and brand-building initiatives to increase consumer awareness, drive store and online traffic, and reinforce the strength of its portfolio of sleep brands. SGI is improving manufacturing efficiency, optimizing sourcing and logistics, and implementing productivity initiatives to offset inflationary pressures, enhance margins and support earnings growth. All these strategic initiatives, coupled with international momentum, have further diversified the business through product launches, distribution and effective omnichannel execution, and are likely to have boosted the company's performance during the quarter under review. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Tempur Sealy International net sales is currently pegged at $311 million, indicating year-over-year growth of 5.8%. On the flip side, commodity inflation and sluggish global bedding demand remain deterrents for Somnigroup. Commodity inflation remains a key headwind as rising costs for oil-derived inputs, including key chemicals, gasoline and diesel, continue to pressure profitability. The company is facing higher expenses for essential raw materials, including chemicals, purchased foam, diesel and gasoline, primarily due to geopolitical disruptions that have affected energy markets. Story Continues Somnigroup International Inc. Price and EPS Surprise Somnigroup International Inc. price-eps-surprise | Somnigroup International Inc. Quote What the Zacks Model Unveils for SGI Our proven model conclusively predicts an earnings beat for Somnigroup this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chance of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter. Somnigroup currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.02% and a Zacks Rank of 3. Valuation & Price Performance Somnigroup has a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 18.13X compared with its five-year high of 33.14X and the Retail - Home Furnishings industry's average of 19.2X. The recent market movements show that SGI's shares have lost 10.6% in the past three months compared with the industry's 3.4% growth. More Stocks With The Favorable Combination Here are a few more companies, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to come up with an earnings beat this reporting cycle: Williams-Sonoma, Inc. WSM has an Earnings ESP of +3.38% and a Zacks Rank of 2. WSM is likely to register a top and bottom-line increase when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2026 numbers. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly EPS of $2.04 suggests an increase of 2% from the year-ago fiscal quarter's reported number. The consensus estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.9 billion, suggesting growth of 4.1% from the prior-year fiscal quarter's reported figure. WSM has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.2%, on average. Designer Brands Inc. DBI currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.03% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The company is expected to register a top-line increase when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2026 results. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $743 million, indicating a rise of 0.4% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly EPS of 25 cents suggests a drop of 26.5% from the year-ago quarter. DBI has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 112.8%, on average. American Eagle Outfitters AEO currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.23% and a Zacks Rank of 2. AEO is likely to register a top-line increase when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2026 numbers. The consensus estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.4 billion, suggesting growth of 6.5% from the prior-year fiscal quarter's reported figure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly EPS of 21 cents suggests a decrease of 53.3% from the year-ago fiscal quarter's reported number. AEO has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 48.5%, on average. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download

Quick Read Gas prices jumped from $2.98 to $4.10 per gallon after Trump's Iran military strike briefly sent crude above $100 per barrel. Fewer than 5% of U.S. gas stations are owned by major oil companies, meaning Chevron cannot dictate retail pump prices. Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty from Trump's repeated threats to resume Iran strikes keeps a risk premium baked into oil prices. Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Chevron didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today. High energy prices have become one of the biggest inflation stories of 2026. According to AAA, the national average price for regular gasoline now sits around $4.10 per gallon, up sharply from roughly $2.98 before the Iran conflict erupted earlier this year. Alex Wong / Getty Images News via Getty Images Every trip to the pump reminds consumers how quickly geopolitical events can ripple through household budgets. For investors, it also highlights an important lesson: commodity markets don't respond to political demands. Oil prices are set globally, retail gasoline prices are set locally, and neither changes because a president posts on social media. Oil Companies Aren't the Ones Setting Pump Prices President Trump took aim at Chevron (NYSE:CVX) this morning after CEO Mike Wirth appeared on Fox Business with Maria Bartiromo discussing the company's strong performance. In a Truth Social post, Trump argued Chevron's success was only possible because of his administration's actions in Venezuela, including reopening the country's oil industry to U.S. companies after Nicolas Maduro's removal. He then demanded Chevron and other producers "get your consumer (retail!) Oil Prices DOWN, NOW!" That criticism misses how gasoline pricing actually works. Contrary to popular belief, Chevron, ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), Shell (NYSE:SHEL), and other integrated oil companies rarely determine the price consumers see on station signs. According to the American Petroleum Institute, fewer than 5% of U.S. gas stations are owned directly by major oil companies. Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Chevron didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today. Retail stations are largely price takers rather than price makers. Owners price fuel based on what it will cost to replace the next shipment, local competitors' prices, labor costs, rent, credit card fees, taxes, and margins that are often just pennies per gallon. Many convenience stores earn more profit selling coffee and snacks than gasoline itself. Story Continues Chevron can influence wholesale fuel costs through its refining business. It cannot simply order independently owned stations across America to slash prices. 24/7 Wall St. Think Big Oil sets the price at your local pump? Think again—the real forces driving your $4.10 gallon are far beyond any CEO's or President's control. © 24/7 Wall St. Trump's Own Policies Have Been a Bigger Driver The biggest move in gasoline prices this year followed Trump's military action against Iran at the end of February. Oil markets immediately priced in the possibility of supply disruptions throughout the Middle East, sending both West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude above $100 per barrel before easing. Although WTI has since fallen below $80 per barrel and Brent has retreated to roughly $83 after Trump again delayed retaliatory strikes against Iran, crude remains well above where it traded when his administration negotiated a temporary truce with Tehran. Markets continue to build a geopolitical risk premium into oil prices because Trump's repeated threats to resume military action create uncertainty over future supply. That uncertainty -- not Chevron's earnings call -- is what has kept gasoline prices elevated. The merits of Trump's foreign policy can certainly be debated. Investors understand that protecting strategic interests sometimes carries economic costs. But assigning responsibility for higher gasoline prices to oil companies ignores how commodity markets function. Investors Should Focus on the Real Drivers Ironically, Chevron is benefiting from stronger crude prices that largely reflect geopolitical developments beyond its control. That's exactly what integrated energy companies are designed to do. Higher oil prices typically expand upstream profits, even if refining margins fluctuate. For investors, the more important variables remain global supply, OPEC+ production decisions, U.S. shale output, refinery utilization, and geopolitical tensions -- not presidential demands directed at corporate executives. When oil prices rise, retail gasoline follows. When crude falls for a sustained period, wholesale prices decline, and competition gradually pushes pump prices lower. No social media post changes that equation. Key Takeaway In short, Trump's criticism of Chevron shifts attention away from the biggest factor behind today's gasoline prices. The jump from roughly $2.98 per gallon before the Iran conflict to more than $4 today largely reflects higher crude oil prices driven by geopolitical risk, not decisions made by Chevron or ExxonMobil. Investors should separate political messaging from market mechanics. Energy stocks will continue to rise and fall with global oil fundamentals, while consumers will keep paying prices determined primarily by wholesale markets and local station owners -- not by directives from Washington. Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Chevron didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today. Contact editorial@247wallst.com for any questions or corrections. View Comments

[Oil pumpjacks at sunset with financial charts overlay.] peshkov * Crude prices dropped by more than $5 a barrel on Monday as U.S. President Donald Trump refrained from launching new attacks on Iran, aiming instead for a rapid deal to curb Tehran's nuclear ambitions and restore passage through the Strait of Hormuz. * Brent crude futures (CO1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CO1:COM]) slid $4.5, or 5.12%, to $83.43 at press time, while U.S. ​West Texas Intermediate crude (CL1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CL1:COM]) was at $79.68 a barrel, down $5.05, or 6%. Both contracts jumped ⁠more than 20% last month after fighting between the U.S. and Iran resumed and ​as attacks on several tankers around Oman increased security concerns. * President Donald Trump told reporters Sunday that the U.S. will engage in talks with Iran starting Monday afternoon. Trump said he had been prepared to launch the biggest military attack since World War II but had been talked down by U.S. allies. * Additionally on Sunday, OPEC+ approved an ​oil production ⁠quota increase of around 188,000 barrels per day from September, the producer group said. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE OIL MARKET: The oil market is becoming increasingly dependent on inventories and strategic stockpiles to offset disruptions across Middle East supply chains, ANZ analysts said. Risks are now extending beyond the Strait of Hormuz to Saudi Arabia's key Red Sea export corridor, raising concerns over the reliability of alternative trade routes. At the same time, accelerating gasoline inventory drawdowns signal that product market balances are tightening. "These trends are supporting stronger crude time spreads, elevated refining margins and firmer prices, leaving the market vulnerable to further upside pressure should disruptions intensify." MORE ON ENERGY, ETC. * Tech Stocks Mixed As Tech Investors Take Profits [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4928788-tech-stocks-mixed-tech-investors-take-profits] * Commodities: Oil Slips As More Crude Flows Out Of Persian Gulf [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4928404-commodities-oil-slips-more-crude-flows-out-of-persian-gulf] * WTI Consolidates After Geopolitical Rally As Inventory Draw Strengthens Supply Outlook [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4927860-wti-consolidates-after-geopolitical-rally-as-inventory-draw-strengthens-supply-outlook] * OPEC+ completes planned output hike, eyes bigger supply increase after Iran conflict [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4623134-opec-completes-planned-output-hike-eyes-bigger-supply-increase-after-iran-conflict] * Trump claims Iran deal is near, but Tehran rejects his account [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4623132-trump-claims-iran-deal-is-near-but-tehran-rejects-his-account]

[Entrance signage to the headquarters of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in Vienna] todamo OPEC+ approved another modest increase in oil production quotas on Sunday, completing its planned rollback of 2023 supply cuts while preserving the option to pump significantly more crude if the conflict in the Middle East eases. For investors, the decision suggests OPEC+ remains focused on balancing high prices caused by regional instability with the possibility of a future supply surplus. If tensions around the Strait of Hormuz subside, Saudi Arabia could boost production further, potentially easing inflationary pressure and weighing on oil prices. The producer group, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, agreed to raise collective output targets by 188,000 barrels per day in September. The increase is largely symbolic because many members lack the capacity to produce up to their quotas after years of underinvestment, sanctions or conflict. The latest increase completes the scheduled unwinding of production cuts introduced in 2023 to support oil prices. However, delegates have indicated quotas are expected to remain unchanged for the rest of the year unless market conditions shift. The decision comes as the Middle East remains volatile. Oil exports have been disrupted by the conflict involving Iran, while attacks linked to Iran-backed Houthi rebels have threatened shipping routes through the Red Sea. President Donald Trump said over the weekend that the U.S. would delay additional strikes on Iran while diplomatic efforts continue. Should regional tensions ease and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalize, Saudi Arabia could have room to increase production further. Such a move could help replenish depleted global inventories and reverse the supply shortages that have driven up gasoline and diesel prices. Still, not every OPEC+ member is in a position to benefit. Russia continues to produce below its quota amid Western sanctions, while Kazakhstan has faced export disruptions and has repeatedly exceeded its production target. Saudi Arabia retains the overwhelming share of the group's spare production capacity. Looking ahead, OPEC+ will meet again in early September and is awaiting the results of an independent review of members' production capacity. That assessment, due later this year, could influence production quotas for 2027 and shape the group's long-term balance between supporting prices and defending market share. MORE ON BRENT FUTURES, CRUDE OIL FUTURES * Tech Stocks Mixed As Tech Investors Take Profits [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4928788-tech-stocks-mixed-tech-investors-take-profits] * Commodities: Oil Slips As More Crude Flows Out Of Persian Gulf [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4928404-commodities-oil-slips-more-crude-flows-out-of-persian-gulf] * WTI Consolidates After Geopolitical Rally As Inventory Draw Strengthens Supply Outlook [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4927860-wti-consolidates-after-geopolitical-rally-as-inventory-draw-strengthens-supply-outlook] * Trump claims Iran deal is near, but Tehran rejects his account [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4623132-trump-claims-iran-deal-is-near-but-tehran-rejects-his-account] * Odds of Hormuz traffic returning to normal pop as Trump halts strikes [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4623131-odds-of-hormuz-traffic-returning-to-normal-pop-as-trump-halts-strikes]

(Bloomberg) -- High fuel prices are likely to stick around even if oil prices drop in the coming months as the wars in Russia and Middle East leave global refining capacity critically short, ExxonMobil Holdings Corp. and Chevron Corp. warned. Most Read from Bloomberg Singapore's Gated Island for the Rich Is Marred by Decayed Homes Moonshot's Kimi Uses 20,000 Nvidia Chip Cluster From Alibaba Trump Orders Iran Attack as Soon as This Weekend, WSJ Says India's Family Offices Embrace Profit-Sharing to Attract Top Talent Anthropic AI Models Hacked Three Organizations During Tests Gasoline, diesel and jet fuel prices typically rise and fall with crude oil. But that link is growing tenuous because so many refineries have been knocked offline, causing fuel prices to remain stubbornly high and accelerating inflation even as oil falls. "The constraint pain point in the energy system is refining," ExxonMobil Chief Financial Officer Neil Hansen said in an interview. It's "something that perhaps the market isn't fully focused on." Nearly 10% of the world's ability to refine crude oil is effectively offline with the Strait of Hormuz largely closed, continued Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and China's export ban, according to Melius Research. It means the refineries left are running flat out to meet demand, rendering them unable to produce more fuel even if the oil is available for them to process. The result is record-high fuel-making margins that benefit refinery owners but drive up costs for consumers. The trend is evident in the US, where the average price of gasoline has crept up above $4 a gallon to the frustration of drivers and politicians, including President Donald Trump, who has criticized Big Oil in recent weeks for not bringing down costs fast enough. Retail gasoline prices are just 10% below this year's peak in May, even though West Texas Intermediate is down 26% from its 2026 high. Refining "is obviously the bottleneck in the petroleum system right now, and margins are exceptionally high," said Neil Mehta, an analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The real pain point is in middle distillates, which includes diesel, jet fuel and heating oil, according to Chevron CEO Mike Wirth. Retail diesel prices are just 6% below their highs this year even though the drop in WTI has been four times as much. The market is likely to tighten further as countries in the northern hemisphere restock heating oil ahead of winter, Wirth said. "I think we're going to see some upward pressure on product pricing here into the third quarter and perhaps beyond that," he said. Story Continues Gasoline prices are beginning to disconnect from oil prices, instead trading on storage levels, or inventories, according to Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital Advisors LLC. Refined product inventories "are approaching historical lows," he said. "The gasoline price is not as much being represented by the movement in oil prices but more so the movement in inventories." ExxonMobil, which operates the world's biggest refinery network outside of China, sees the trend advancing for the foreseeable future because about 5 million barrels a day of refining capacity is unable to reach the global market. "I've never seen the available capacity relative to demand as low as it is today," ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods said on a call with analysts. "It's going to take a while for the industry to climb its way out of that hole." It's not the first time this year oil industry participants warned about the stark dangers to the energy system. Some analysts said oil could hit $200 a barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remained shut for an extended period, but it never got close to those levels despite the protracted conflict. This time it could be different. ExxonMobil's Gulf Coast refineries ran at a utilization rate of 95% in the second quarter, while Chevron's US facilities ran even harder, at 97%, showing there's little room for error. Shell Plc ran its refineries at 102% in the period but expects this to drop this quarter due to the need for scheduled maintenance. "The geopolitical uncertainty has tightened markets and is reinforcing the importance of reliable supply," Chevron CFO Eimear Bonner said in an interview. "The shock absorbers that have mitigated the volatility up until now, those continue to be drawn down." Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek Tokenmaxxing Is Dead. Now Comes the Belt Tightening Trump's Arctic Mining Deal Signals a New Era of State Capitalism How a Few Hundred Dollars Could Manipulate Election Prediction Markets Why Wall Street Is Getting Angry The Menopause Gold Rush Is Failing Women ©2026 Bloomberg L.P. View Comments

The cool news is that the latest data from the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator came in lower than consensus in June, primarily due to a drop in energy prices. The not-so-cool news? During his second Fed Day as Chairman of the U.S. central bank, Kevin Warsh hemmed and hawed over whether the Personal Consumption Expenditure price index would continue to serve that role. And didn't offer a hint as to what the replacement might be. As I reported, this lack of transparent strategy really ticked off Wall Street -- more than the Federal Open Market Committee's decisive 9-3 vote to hold short-term benchmark interest rates steady July 29. Bonds sold off sharply with the 30-year Treasury hitting 5.22%. Within hours of Warsh's post-meeting press conference, J.P. Morgan abruptly shifted its forecast for the Fed's interest-rate outlook to a hawkish one. The headline on the note?  "Talk is Cheap." J.P. Morgan Chief U.S. Economist Michael Feroli said the Fed would raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December instead of the second half of 2027. The note to clients expects the Fed to continue to hold the Federal Funds Rate at 3.75%-4.00% after the December hike but added that the risk of a September rate increase is real. Feroli's research update said that Warsh's ambiguous signaling raises concerns about the central bank's inflation strategy. "It's hard to know what to make of Warsh's remarks, which involved a lot of well-turned phrases but little in the way of a coherent macro view," Feroli wrote to clients, adding that the new Chairman "once again failed to specify how he intended to achieve his stridently asserted inflation resolve," creating additional policy uncertainty for financial markets. Fed's mandate balances interest rates, jobs and prices The Fed's congressional dual mandate requires full employment and price stability. The FOMC post-meeting statement was a terse five paragraphs that described the economic activity as "expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East.'' It cited the energy shocks that have driven up prices in some sectors. Warsh has repeatedly vowed the Fed would bring inflation down to its 2% target -- a measure it has missed for the last 63 months. He deflected questions from reporters on July 29 as to how this will be achieved with responses that included that there is "no magic wand." (You can read the entire transcript of Warsh's press conference here and watch the video here.) Story Continues "But at what point is he actually going to act?," Yardeni Research President Ed Yardeni told CNBC July 30, adding "What's it going to take?" Here's the tricky part: Lower interest rates support hiring but can fuel inflation. This risks fueling further inflation, potentially leading to an inflationary spiral. Higher rates cool prices but can weaken the job market. This increases the cost of borrowing and further stifles economic activity. Fed holds interest rates steady thus far this year The rate-setting FOMC voted unanimously in June to hold its benchmark Federal Funds Rate target in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. But the minutes of the June FOMC meeting showed policymakers splitting their views on inflation risk and the impact on interest rates with a rising hawkish tinge to the quarterly dot plot. The three Fed presidents who voted for a 25 basis-point hike in July -- Cleveland's Beth Hammack, Minneapolis' Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan of Dallas -- expressed concerns about the impact of underlying inflation after the June meeting based in part on comments and observations from consumers and businesses in their regions. Warsh's remarks cast doubt on the ⁠new chair's credibility in delivering lower inflation, J.P. Morgan said in the July 29 note, adding that this could increase the urgency for the rest ​of the committee to act on its mandate for price stability. July FOMC resets traders' Fed interest-rate bets Traders are pricing ⁠in a 65.2% chance of a rate hike in September, down from 81% before the policy statement, according to ​the CME Group FedWatch Tool. The futures markets are also pricing in an 82.7% cumulative probability that the funds rate will be higher than the current 3.50%-3.75% by the December FOMC meeting. Related: Fed interest-rate decision rocks Wall Street's inflation fears BofA Global Research forecasts three rate hikes starting ⁠in ​September. Long-standing Fed dove Citigroup maintained its ​forecast for rate cuts in October and December this year and one in January 2027 ​following the July FOMC meeting. Key drivers behind the June PCE drop Questions whether the PCE price index will remain the primary reference tool for monetary policy with no answers as to what will replace it have further heightened market jitters. Headline PCE dropped0.1% month-over-month in June and fell from 4.1% to 3.7% year-over-year. Excluding food and energy, the gauge rose less than forecast. Gasoline prices have risen in July due to military escalation in the Iran War, once again pressuring household budgets and the latest data showed the saving rate fell in June to the lowest level since 2022. Meanwhile the inflation-adjusted GDP increased an annualized 1.5% in the three months through June, lower than the 2.1% consensus. Consumers "looked through the price pressures and they powered on — the question is how much longer they will be able to do that," Barclays Senior U.S. Economist Pooja Sriram told Bloomberg. "Tax refunds have run out and income gains are slowing, so that cushion that we point to is getting smaller in the next quarter." Related: Mortgage rate forecast resets after Fed decision This story was originally published by TheStreet on Aug 1, 2026, where it first appeared in the Fed section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here. View Comments

Investing.com -- The closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran war is prompting companies to raise prices on products including beer, paint, french fries and packaging as commodity and transport costs climb, the Wall Street Journal reported. Boston Beer Company Inc (NYSE:SAM), Sherwin-Williams Co (NYSE:SHW), International Paper (NYSE:IP) and Unilever PLC ADR (NYSE:UL) have raised prices or plan to do so to offset more expensive raw materials. The increases could add to U.S. inflation and complicate the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decisions. Investors had previously expected rate cuts but are now positioning for possible increases following the energy-price shock. Around 20% of the world's oil supply passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the conflict. The waterway also handled large volumes of aluminium, fertiliser and other commodities. U.S. crude futures traded near $85 a barrel on Friday, around 25% higher than when the war began. The average U.S. petrol price has climbed to about $4.11 a gallon from $2.98 at the start of the conflict, the report said. Unilever expects price increases, rather than higher volumes, to lead its sales growth during the second half of the year as commodity costs rise. Sherwin-Williams plans to increase prices by 8% from September 1 to offset higher costs for oil-linked materials. Its shares rose more than 8% after the announcement. Illinois Tool Works Inc (NYSE:ITW) said price increases implemented during the spring quarter had more than covered its higher input costs. Lamb Weston Holdings Inc (NYSE:LW) also raised North American prices after higher oil costs increased transport and edible-oil expenses. Packaging producers face rising costs for plastic, aluminium, recycled cardboard and freight. International Paper, Smurfit WestRock PLC (NYSE:SW) and Packaging Corporation of America (NYSE:PKG) announced price increases in July. The higher prices have supported shares of several manufacturers and consumer-goods companies, but their combined effect could add pressure on household budgets and keep interest rates elevated. Related articles Iran war pushes companies to raise prices on beer, paint and fries Citi pushes back Fed rate cuts to May after blowout January jobs report Goldman expects lower but still attractive stock market returns in 2026 View Comments

[PBF Energy Refinery Close-up] MichaelRLopez/iStock via Getty Images The Trump administration is discussing plans to shield the U.S. Farm Belt from an expected expansion of waivers of biofuel laws, which is under consideration as a way to ‌cut gasoline prices for motorists, Reuters reported this week. Trump is considering a plan that would increase biofuel quotas for the 2027 calendar year by ~500M gallons to offset any damage caused by the soon-to-be-announced exemptions for smaller refineries, which are expected to roughly double from 990M renewable fuel credits to as many as 1.8B, the report [https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/farm-biofuel-groups-urge-trump-curb-expanded-refinery-exemptions-2026-08-27/] said. During Trump's first term, broad refinery exemptions drew fierce opposition from Midwest farmers and ethanol producers while benefiting and winning support ​from oil refiners, and the issue has returned at a time when the administration has sought to lower fuel costs ahead of the November midterm elections. The prospect of a large expansion of refinery waivers had traders anticipating weaker demand for biofuels, sending prices for renewable fuel credits sharply lower earlier this week [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4636426-us-rin-prices-plunge-after-epa-delays-biofuel-compliance-deadline---reuters]. A coalition of farm and biofuel groups urged Trump to reject any waiver expansion, warning that a surge in ​exemptions for small refineries would hurt rural America by undercutting demand for crops and renewable fuels. "The consequences would be severe and immediate," the groups said in a letter to Trump, warning that excess exemptions could cause biofuel markets to collapse ​and reduce demand for corn and soybean ​oil. Trump is expected to meet [https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-meet-refiners-fuel-retailers-iran-war-pressures-gas-prices-ahead-midterms-2026-08-27/] with U.S. refiners and fuel retailers in the coming week to ​highlight efforts to lower gasoline prices. Potentially relevant stocks include Archer Daniels Midland (ADM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ADM]), Bunge (BG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BG]), Green Plains (GPRE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GPRE]), Gevo (GEVO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GEVO]), Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CLNE]), REX American Resources (REX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/REX]), Darling Ingredients (DAR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DAR]), FutureFuel (FF [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FF]), Valero Energy (VLO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VLO]), Marathon Petroleum (MPC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MPC]), Phillips 66 (PSX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/PSX]), HF Sinclair (DINO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DINO]), PBF Energy (PBF [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/PBF]), Delek US (DK [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DK]). ETFs: (CORN [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CORN]), (DBA [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DBA]), (MOO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MOO]) MORE ON VALERO ENERGY, MARATHON PETROLEUM, AND PBF ENERGY * Valero: Downgrading To Hold, Unsustainable Crack Spreads Create A Challenging Setup [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4938206-valero-downgrading-to-hold-unsustainable-crack-spreads-create-challenging-setup] * Marathon Petroleum: Russian Refined Exports May Be Indefinitely Out Of The Market [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4935163-marathon-petroleum-russian-refined-exports-may-be-indefinitely-out-of-the-market] * PBF Energy: From Ukraine With Love [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4930328-pbf-energy-from-ukraine-with-love]

[PBF Energy Refinery Close-up] MichaelRLopez/iStock via Getty Images The Trump administration is discussing plans to shield the U.S. Farm Belt from an expected expansion of waivers of biofuel laws, which is under consideration as a way to ‌cut gasoline prices for motorists, Reuters reported this week. Trump is considering a plan that would increase biofuel quotas for the 2027 calendar year by ~500M gallons to offset any damage caused by the soon-to-be-announced exemptions for smaller refineries, which are expected to roughly double from 990M renewable fuel credits to as many as 1.8B, the report [https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/farm-biofuel-groups-urge-trump-curb-expanded-refinery-exemptions-2026-08-27/] said. During Trump's first term, broad refinery exemptions drew fierce opposition from Midwest farmers and ethanol producers while benefiting and winning support ​from oil refiners, and the issue has returned at a time when the administration has sought to lower fuel costs ahead of the November midterm elections. The prospect of a large expansion of refinery waivers had traders anticipating weaker demand for biofuels, sending prices for renewable fuel credits sharply lower earlier this week [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4636426-us-rin-prices-plunge-after-epa-delays-biofuel-compliance-deadline---reuters]. A coalition of farm and biofuel groups urged Trump to reject any waiver expansion, warning that a surge in ​exemptions for small refineries would hurt rural America by undercutting demand for crops and renewable fuels. "The consequences would be severe and immediate," the groups said in a letter to Trump, warning that excess exemptions could cause biofuel markets to collapse ​and reduce demand for corn and soybean ​oil. Trump is expected to meet [https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-meet-refiners-fuel-retailers-iran-war-pressures-gas-prices-ahead-midterms-2026-08-27/] with U.S. refiners and fuel retailers in the coming week to ​highlight efforts to lower gasoline prices. Potentially relevant stocks include Archer Daniels Midland (ADM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ADM]), Bunge (BG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BG]), Green Plains (GPRE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GPRE]), Gevo (GEVO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GEVO]), Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CLNE]), REX American Resources (REX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/REX]), Darling Ingredients (DAR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DAR]), FutureFuel (FF [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FF]), Valero Energy (VLO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VLO]), Marathon Petroleum (MPC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MPC]), Phillips 66 (PSX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/PSX]), HF Sinclair (DINO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DINO]), PBF Energy (PBF [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/PBF]), Delek US (DK [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DK]). ETFs: (CORN [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CORN]), (DBA [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DBA]), (MOO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MOO]) MORE ON VALERO ENERGY, MARATHON PETROLEUM, AND PBF ENERGY * Valero: Downgrading To Hold, Unsustainable Crack Spreads Create A Challenging Setup [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4938206-valero-downgrading-to-hold-unsustainable-crack-spreads-create-challenging-setup] * Marathon Petroleum: Russian Refined Exports May Be Indefinitely Out Of The Market [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4935163-marathon-petroleum-russian-refined-exports-may-be-indefinitely-out-of-the-market] * PBF Energy: From Ukraine With Love [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4930328-pbf-energy-from-ukraine-with-love]

Investing.com - U.S. stock futures were little changed on Friday after Nvidia's blockbuster earnings reignited the technology rally, with investors now turning their attention to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's closely watched speech at Jackson Hole. Meanwhile, renewed uncertainty over U.S.-Iran negotiations pushed oil prices higher, while PayPal tumbled after takeover talks collapsed. 1. Futures steady after Nvidia-fueled rally U.S. stock futures were little changed early Friday after Nvidia's stronger-than-expected outlook helped lift Wall Street in the previous session. S&P 500 futures was flat, while Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.3%. Dow futures were up 0.2%. Nvidia shares jumped 8.7% on Thursday after the chipmaker delivered a bullish revenue outlook, easing concerns that spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure could be losing momentum. The gains helped lift the broader market, with the S&P 500 rising 0.7%, the Nasdaq Composite climbing 1.6% and the Dow adding 0.2%. For retail investors, Nvidia's results matter because the company sits at the center of the AI investment boom. Strong demand for its chips supports not only Nvidia but also the wider technology companies building and operating AI data centers. 2. Warsh takes center stage at Jackson Hole Attention now shifts to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who is scheduled to deliver the keynote speech at the central bank's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, later Friday. Investors will be listening for clues about how the Fed views persistent inflation and the outlook for interest rates. Recent data have shown that price pressures remain elevated, while Treasury yields have stayed high amid concerns about inflation, heavy government borrowing and the future path of monetary policy. For investors, Warsh's message could have a direct impact on stocks and bonds. A hawkish signal suggesting rates could remain high for longer would likely put pressure on expensive growth stocks, while signs that the Fed is becoming more comfortable with lower rates could provide another boost to equities. 3. Nvidia faces scrutiny over AI financing Nvidia's strong earnings were not the only company development attracting attention. The chipmaker has also paused some deals under a financing program designed to help AI cloud companies purchase its chips, The Wall Street Journal reported. The program, announced less than two months ago, provided credit support to AI cloud companies in exchange for a share of their revenue. Some Nvidia employees reportedly raised concerns about potential antitrust scrutiny. Story Continues The precise reason for the pause remains unclear, and Nvidia could still modify the program. The development adds to growing scrutiny over Nvidia's investments in AI companies that ultimately become customers for its chips. The company has defended these investments, with CEO Jensen Huang arguing that AI startups require unusually large amounts of capital. For investors, the issue is important because Nvidia is increasingly involved in financing the ecosystem that drives demand for its own products. That can accelerate growth, but it can also attract regulatory scrutiny and raise questions about conflicts of interest. 4. PayPal's takeover hopes fade - Bloomberg PayPal shares plunged 12.2% in after-hours trading after a consortium led by Advent International and Stripe abandoned its pursuit of the payments company, Bloomberg reported. The group had reportedly offered $60.50 per share, valuing PayPal at more than $53 billion. PayPal's board considered the offer too low and raised concerns about regulatory and financing hurdles. The collapse is particularly significant because takeover speculation had helped lift PayPal shares from their 52-week low of $38.46 after deal discussions emerged in July. For investors, the sharp decline is a reminder of the risks of buying a stock based heavily on takeover expectations. Once a potential deal disappears, the market has to reassess the company based on its underlying business and growth prospects. 5. Iran uncertainty sends oil higher Oil prices climbed after a report that the Trump administration has told mediators it is no longer interested in returning to a June memorandum of understanding with Iran. The agreement, signed by President Donald Trump at the Palace of Versailles, had provided a framework for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and beginning talks over Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief and access to frozen Iranian assets. According to The Wall Street Journal, Washington has now shifted toward a policy of maximum economic pressure and is not interested in reviving the agreement. The report pushed Brent crude above $88 a barrel and weighed on equity markets as investors worried about renewed disruption to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. For retail investors, oil is important because a sustained rise in crude prices can feed into gasoline, transportation and other costs, pushing inflation higher. That could make it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and could add another headwind for stocks. Related articles Warsh, Nvidia And oil In focus - what's moving markets JPMorgan outlines ten strategic themes that could shape the outlook for 2026 As Claude disrupts stock market, Anthropic researcher warns 'world is in peril' View Comments

For Immediate Release Chicago, IL – August 25 2026 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks and ETFs featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: Nvidia's NVDA, Valero VLO, Lumentum LITE, Monolithic Power Systems MPWR Here are highlights from Tuesday's Analyst Blog: Monster NVIDIA Reports Results: Global Week Ahead What happens across this Global Week Ahead? The world's top central bank chiefs gather in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, against a jittery backdrop Half a year into the Iran war, and With bond markets rattled, by a selloff in long-dated U.S. debt, that prompted U.S. Treasury intervention Away from Jackson Hole, Wyoming, there's plenty else going on, from— Nvidia's latest earnings report, and Inflation readings around the world To a South Korean policy rate decision, and An Icelandic vote, on whether to revive E.U. accession talks Next are Reuters' five world market themes, re-ordered for equity traders— (1) On Wednesday, Nvidia Reports Results After a rocky few days for tech stocks, investors will get a fresh read on the artificial intelligence spending boom that has helped propel markets ‌to record highs when Nvidia reports second-quarter results on Wednesday. The chipmaker, whose processors are central to AI development, is widely viewed as a barometer for both AI investment and broader tech sentiment. Its results could help determine whether enthusiasm for AI remains strong enough to support lofty valuations, after a recent tech selloff driven in part by rising bond yields. Investors will focus on demand from major cloud providers, whose spending has fueled Nvidia's rapid growth. Signs that customers are ramping up AI deployments or spending plans could reinforce expectations that the investment cycle still has room to run. (2) On Wednesday, U.S. Core PCE Data Lands. CPI Data Get Refreshed Elsewhere The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz and crude prices grinding higher are adding to concerns about the global inflation outlook. Brent is headed for a second straight weekly gain and its sixth advance in eight weeks, but it's the surge in refined products that is drawing growing attention as the Northern Hemisphere heads towards the colder months. European diesel prices have jumped more than 70% since the outbreak of war in February; U.S. gasoline is up 60%. With refining output curtailed in the Middle East, Russia, East Asia and beyond, energy-driven inflation looks here to stay. Story Continues A clearer picture of global inflation is due in the coming days, with data from Australia on Wednesday, and France, Spain and Tokyo on Friday. Particular focus will fall on the U.S. core PCE reading on Wednesday — expected to print above the Fed's +2% target for the 65th consecutive month. (3) On Thursday, South Korea's Central Bank Sets Monetary Policy. Rate Hike? South Korea's central bank meets on Thursday with markets watching for signs that policymakers are ready to follow up July's first rate hike in 3-1/2 years. Inflation cooled to an annualized +2.8% that month, but still remains above target as demand for AI-related chips continues to support the economy. Higher borrowing costs could add to pressure on South Korean stocks, still recovering from June's leverage-fueled selloff, while also boosting the won, which has strengthened more than 10% this month. Governor Shin Hyun Song has signalled a preference for keeping policy tight to contain inflation, suggesting another hike cannot be ruled out. Elsewhere, Thailand's central bank meets on Wednesday, but with inflation far more subdued, few expect rates to move again this year. (4) On Friday, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Speaks for the First Time at Jackson Hole Big-think or red meat? That's the choice Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh faces as he prepares a keynote address at the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming: expound on his ideas for reforming the central bank, or stick to the nuts and bolts of monetary policy and whether rates are headed higher. As the gathering kicks off on Thursday, bringing together central bank chiefs from around the world, the audience for his remarks could hardly be more influential. Warsh has spent his first weeks as chair focusing on long-term structural issues facing the U.S. economy. But investors, still digesting a bond selloff, are craving a steer about the here and now. Warsh has been pretty clear he doesn't want to show his hand, but he may find his no-guidance policy becoming a liability. (5) Icelanders Vote: A Referendum on Whether to Start E.U. Accession Talks Icelanders head to the polls on August 29th in a referendum on whether to thaw out E.U. accession talks that have been on ice since 2013, when a eurosceptic government put them in the chiller. It's not a vote on joining the bloc itself. Any eventual deal would still need a second referendum. For now, polls suggest the country is split right down the middle. At stake are Iceland's rich natural resources, sky-high interest rates, a punishing cost of living costs and, increasingly, security concerns stirred by U.S. interest in neighboring Greenland. A "yes" vote would reopen thorny talks with Brussels, with fisheries likely the biggest obstacle. A "no" sends the E.U. question back into the deep freeze and dents the bloc's enlargement pitch. Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks Next, three fresh Zacks #1 (STRONG BUY) large-cap stocks: The three stocks share one thing in common: scary share price charts The first stock has lowest F12 P/E valuation I end with the nosebleed highest (1) Valero: This is a $342 a share refiner, with a market cap of $99.7B It is found in the Zacks Oil & Gas Refining industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of C. F12M P/E: 8.5. Valero Energy is the largest in

(Bloomberg) -- Oil dropped after two weeks of gains, with the market waiting to see the US economic isolation plan for Iran due to be released later Monday. Most Read from Bloomberg US Oil Refiners Face Import Squeeze From Biggest Foreign Seller Canada Sees Long Trade War With US That May Last Beyond Midterms US-Canada Trade Talks Fell Apart Over Fine Print, Envoy Says Nvidia Customers Notified About AI-Related Price Hikes Above 15% Bessent Has No Easy Fix for What's Really Driving Yields Up Brent fell to around $93 a barrel, after adding around 13% over the past two weeks, while West Texas Intermediate was near $86. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to unveil details of the plan in a press conference, and sought to ratchet up pressure on US allies to join the effort in an interview with CNBC. Oil has rallied more than 50% this year, with the US-Iran war — now in its sixth month — choking global supplies of crude and refined products. It's not clear exactly how the US could meaningfully ramp up economic pressure on Tehran, other than going after China — the main buyer of the OPEC producer's crude — and risking blowback. "Iran's enablers purchase and transport its petroleum," Bessent said in an opinion piece in the Financial Times. "They would do well to consider the consequences of sustaining it." The article has laid out the contours of the plan to target Iran's economy, said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group Ltd. "Calling his op-ed piece 'D-Day is coming for Iran' hardly suggests he is there to make friends, and we should expect a defiant message," he said. "Any defiant plan to materially disrupt the import of Iranian crude comes with significant execution and reaction risk." In an indication of how higher prices may be reducing fuel demand, China's top refiner Sinopec said gasoline consumption fell almost 8% and diesel use 12% in the first half of the year because of high prices and increased use of electric vehicles. While visible maritime shipping through Hormuz remains curbed, the Islamic Republic permitted a number of Iraqi oil tankers to transit the critical waterway following a request from Baghdad, Iranian media reported. Washington and Tehran have both repeatedly said that they control the strait. Still, flows in the Middle East remain disrupted. Saudi Arabia has been forced to shuttle oil loaded in the Red Sea via a safer but longer northern route after Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen targeted shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint in the south. Story Continues Elsewhere, Russia rejected a truce Ukraine offered on attacks against ships carrying agricultural commodities through the Black Sea because Moscow wanted guarantees against strikes on its energy infrastructure, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Saturday. While some refineries have recently completed maintenance, Russia hasn't yet decided whether to lift its diesel export ban in force through Sept. 1, Interfax reported. Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek The Diamond Industry's Old Guard Wants You to Buy 'Natural' New York's Israeli Restaurants Are Doing Better Than You Might Think The Seniors Against Senior Housing Group Chats Might Be Full of Affiliate Links Soon Rising Temperatures Are Threatening Some of America's Best Fishing Destinations ©2026 Bloomberg L.P. View Comments

If you fancy yourself a fan of gold or silver, you're feeling a bit more cheerful about the metal than this spring. Gold has been rising all month, up some 14% since July 31 to about $4,380 per troy ounce at the Aug. 21 close. Silver is up nearly 20% to $69.50 an ounce. Related: After the bubble: Why UBS is still a gold-and-silver fan Your cheer, however, has come after a lot of pain — more than six months, in fact. Precious metals prices surged upward through 2025 until an abrupt halt at the end of January. Gold peaked at $5,586 an ounce. Silver topped out at $121.785 an ounce. Both were seriously overbought levels. The peak came because futures exchanges tightened the rules for trading, something they will do if they believe trading has gotten out of hand. The rule changes effectively meant the cash required to trade in the gold and silver markets went up substantially. More important: On Jan. 29, President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to be the new chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. Gold and silver traders saw immediately that an inflation hawk would be in charge of running the Central Bank and might be more serious about cutting down domestic inflation, says former JP Morgan economist Anthony Chan, and started to unload their positions. But then came start of the war in the Middle East and, with the war, sharply higher oil prices and, of course, sharply higher gasoline and diesel prices. By the end of June, gold had tumbled about 28.5%. Silver fell 58% from its $121.79 peak to its bottom in mid-July. The war, which started on Feb. 28, caused oil prices and inflation to jump sharply. Warsh's appointment — and Wall Street's expectation the Fed would raise rates in 2026 — pulled interest rates higher, which was terrible for metals.Gold being refined at a refinery in Switzerland. Stefan Wermuth / Bloomberg / Getty ImagesStefan Wermuth / Bloomberg / Getty Images A break in the summer But the tide turned in the late spring and early summer on three points: Crude oil prices peaked in the late spring. The war itself lapsed into what's basically been a stalemate, despite continuing drone and missile attacks from the United States and Iran. (A note: When there is no shelling, oil and fuel prices fall.) Warsh and the Fed have not yet raised interest rates. The three combined to give gold and silver new life and gains for related exchange-traded funds. Since bottoming on July 15, the SPDR Gold Shares exchange-traded fund (GLD) has jumped 16%; the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is up 24%. Citigroup analysts think gold could close above $5,000 this year and hit $6,000 in 2027. A new catalyst came this month when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the United States was going to buy back long-dated Treasury bonds in a bid to knock down Treasury yields. Story Continues Partly the move is to deal with rates that had been rising since the Persian Gulf war erupted because bond investors understood that the war costs were going to prove far greater than anyone expected and impossible to predict. Another reason is to bring the U.S. dollar more into balance with the Japanese yen. That currency has been sliding because its government deficits are larger than those in the United States: about 200% of gross domestic product. And some decided they preferred hard assets like gold, silver and other metals instead of buying Treasury securities that could fall in value if interest rates continue to rise. Bessent's campaign worked for one day, but yields jumped back up on Aug. 20 and Aug. 21 as a number of analysts said the campaign wouldn't work. The 10-year Treasury yield was at 4.736% on Aug. 21, up nearly 13.5% on the year and nearly 20% since the war started on Feb. 28. The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.275% the same day, up nearly 9% in 2026 and up 14.3% since the war began. More Gold & Silver: Robert Kiyosaki has a bold call on gold and silver Peter Schiff sees something big in gold and silver BofA sees lost year taking shape for gold The new Fed boss will have his say The situation is fluid and confusing. And we haven't talked about the Federal Reserve and Kevin Warsh. Warsh has been adamant the Fed will deliver on a pledge to deliver price stability. But he has not offered many details because he's also trying to refocus the Fed. Investors are hoping for clarity on Friday when Warsh gives the keynote address at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Wyoming. The speech is scheduled for 10 a.m. ET. Traders and money managers around the world will be listening carefully. Are gold and silver right for investors? You can invest in both if you think deficits in the United States and elsewhere are out of control and dangerous. And the easiest way to do it is to buy the SPDR gold shares exchange-traded fund (GLD) or the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV). They're easy to buy and sell. And, if you think both are headed higher, enjoy the ride. Since both buy gold and silver directly, your investment is subject to market forces as I noted above. It's not an exaggeration to say the post-January slump was violent. But keep this one fact in mind: The bottom for each was not close to lows in 2023 and 2024. Related: HELOC rates are 7.31%. Why that's actually good news This story was originally published by TheStreet on Aug 23, 2026, where it first appeared in the Economy section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here. View Comments

By Niket Nishant and Rae Wee Aug 20 (Reuters) - U.S. government bonds sold off following a brief reprieve on Thursday, pushing yields higher again and keeping stocks under pressure as investors questioned whether U.S. Treasury ‌support measures would provide lasting relief. Yields on the 30-year U.S. government bond rose 2.74 basis points to ‌5.2214% after falling to 5.1765% earlier, a day after the Treasury's pledge to buy back more longer-dated debt. Yields move inversely to prices. The moves were ​being closely watched to gauge markets' faith in the U.S. Treasury's ability to stem a rout that has sent shockwaves across multiple asset classes. An MSCI index of global stocks fell for four consecutive sessions, its longest losing streak since March, before a 0.30% gain on Thursday. "The buyback announcement is more of a band-aid than a panacea. But it is a reminder that ‌the Treasury Department is paying attention and will ⁠do whatever it can to keep yields from getting too high too quickly," said Lawrence Gillum, chief fixed-income strategist for LPL Financial. The benchmark 10-year yield rose 2.33 basis points to 4.6763%, ⁠following a 5 bps fall on Wednesday. Yields on government bonds in Germany and Japan, however, eased. SOUR SENTIMENT WEIGHS ON STOCKS The pan-European STOXX 600 slipped 0.17% and the S&P 500 futures were flat. Higher bond yields typically pressure stocks. Elevated oil prices also dampened ​sentiment. Brent ​crude futures rose 2.54% to $93.95 a barrel as disruption in ​the Strait of Hormuz showed few signs of ‌easing. [O/R] "You're hitting a point where inventories can become a problem," said Tom Samuelson, chief investment officer at Vineyard Global Advisors. U.S. stockpiles of distillate fuel, including diesel and heating oil, have fallen for three consecutive weeks. Still, crude and gasoline inventories rose last week. Futures tracking the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index, however, inched 0.11% higher, helped in part by optimism towards AI. "It's penny-wise, pound-foolish for tech companies to worry about where the yield curve is. The fundamental story for AI charges ahead regardless," ‌said Marta Norton, chief investment strategist at retirement and wealth services ​provider Empower. Tech firms cannot afford to stop their AI spending given the ​potential hit to their businesses if they fall behind, ​a dynamic that may limit the impact of bond market turbulence on AI stocks, she ‌added. In currency markets, the euro rose 0.16% to $1.1695, hitting ​its highest since May. The ​yen weakened 0.21% to 158.50. Story Continues The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six major peers, was down 0.14% at 98.70. Minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting released on Wednesday showed that concern about inflation ​deepened, with "several" policymakers appearing ready to raise ‌interest rates and "many" saying a hike in borrowing costs would be needed if inflation does not decline ​to the central bank's 2% target. (Reporting by Niket Nishant in Bengaluru and Rae Wee in Singapore; Editing ​by Jamie Freed, Thomas Derpinghaus, Alex Richardson and Hugh Lawson) View Comments

Moneywise and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue through links in the content below. Rising living costs have been a persistent concern for Americans. Now, President Donald Trump is once again claiming that prices are coming down — but the latest inflation data tell a more complicated story for your wallet. During remarks in Ohio on Aug. 11, Trump said that "prices are dropping fast," while also touting the stock market and employment (1). The comment came as the latest government data showed inflation had eased slightly in July. Must Read Jeff Bezos backs a platform that lets anyone invest in rental homes for as little as $100 — 6 ways to build wealth like a landlord without actually being one JPMorgan still sees gold hitting $5,000/oz by Q4 — and savvy investors are protecting their wealth with a tax-advantaged Gold IRA. Learn more with a free guide from Priority Gold The tax breaks in Trump's 'big beautiful bill' expire after 2028 — and experts say most people won't act in time. What to do before the window closes But there's an important distinction between inflation slowing and prices actually falling. The latest data show that while the rate of inflation has cooled from its pandemic-era highs, the overall price level is still rising. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.4% in July from a year earlier, down slightly from 3.5% in June but still well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Prices also rose 0.1% from June to July (2). Some prices did fall in July. Gasoline dropped 2.9%, grocery prices fell 0.1% and car insurance declined 0.3%. But other costs continued to climb, including shelter, health care and airline fares. In short, Americans are still feeling the "affordability squeeze" — even as the pace of price increases has moderated. So, what's going on here? Here's a closer look at inflation in 2026 — and how you can capitalize on it. Inflation is still elevated There's an important catch to Trump's claim. Inflation is nowhere near its 9.1% peak from June 2022, but prices aren't actually falling across the board. They're still rising — just at a slower pace (3). It's worth pointing out that despite inflation cooling, it still remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. That means it's still technically higher than the Fed wants it to be. And the Fed isn't declaring victory, either. In its latest statement, the Federal Open Market Committee said that "inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal" (4). The Fed also held its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, with three policymakers actually voting for a rate hike. Story Continues The latest numbers aren't exactly great news for workers, either. After accounting for inflation, average hourly earnings were down 0.2% from a year earlier in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (3). In other words, paychecks aren't going as far as they were a year ago. That can make it tough for households to feel much relief, even when inflation is cooling. However, Trump has pointed to paychecks as a sign of his administration's success. "You're getting lower prices, bigger paychecks … you're getting much higher wages," he said at the rally in Pennsylvania (5). Wages are indeed rising, though perhaps not at the pace implied. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Americans' wages and salaries increased 3.3% over the 12 months ending in December 2025 — roughly keeping pace with inflation, but not dramatically outpacing it (6). And then there's the stock market — and the retirement accounts tied to it. Trump has also pointed to rising 401(k) balances as a sign Americans are doing better financially. Fidelity found the average 401(k) balance hit $141,000 in the first quarter of 2026, up 11% from a year earlier but down 4% from the previous quarter as markets wobbled (7). That's good news for retirement savers, but it doesn't mean everyone is feeling richer. A 401(k) can grow while everyday expenses are still eating into your budget — and market gains can disappear quickly when stocks fall. So the picture is a little more complicated: Inflation is cooling, but prices are still high and paychecks aren't necessarily going as far. The good news? History shows that investors don't have to rely on perfect policy or ideal economic conditions to protect their purchasing power. Across cycles — and regardless of who occupies the White House — savvy investors have found ways to shield themselves from inflation's bite. Read More: Millionaires under 43 hold only 25% of their wealth in stocks. Here's where their money is actually going A classic safe haven When it comes to preserving wealth and fighting inflation, few assets have stood the test of time like gold. Its appeal is simple: Unlike fiat currencies, the yellow metal can't be printed at will by central banks. It's not tied to any one country, currency or economy and in times of economic turmoil or geopolitical uncertainty, investors often flock to it — driving prices higher. Over the past 12 months, the price of the precious metal has surged by over 40% (8). Ray Dalio, founder of the world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, has repeatedly emphasized gold's importance in building a resilient portfolio. "People don't have, typically, an adequate amount of gold in their portfolio," Dalio told CNBC in 2025 (9). "When bad times come, gold is a very effective diversifier." JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has also struck a bullish tone, suggesting that in the current environment, gold could "easily" rise to $10,000 an ounce (10). Grabbing a golden bull by the horns One way to invest in gold that also provides significant tax advantages is to open a gold IRA with the help of Priority Gold. Gold IRAs allow investors to hold physical gold or gold-related assets within a retirement account, which combines the tax advantages of an IRA with the protective benefits of investing in gold, making it a

Wall Street has spent this year waiting for prices to calm down. The thinking was simple. The war with Iran pushed oil up in February; the shock would wear off, and the Fed would go back to cutting rates. One of the banks that sold that idea has changed its mind. Wells Fargo is not a gloomy voice on the U.S. economy. In June, its equity strategists raised the year-end target for the S&P 500 to 7,950 from 7,300, lifting its earnings forecast for the index, according to TheStreet. The people who forecast prices there are far less cheerful. Their new numbers say the long slide in inflation everyone counted on is running out of road. Wells Fargo raises its inflation forecast and now expects a rate hike Wells Fargo has lifted its inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027, and now expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by a quarter point before the year is out. The investment institute previously expected the Fed to remain on hold this year and in 2027, according to Reuters. Costlier energy, new tariffs, and supply chains that still do not run smoothly are behind the change. The bank's own June targets show what that shift is up against. The Wells Fargo Investment Institute had inflation ending this year at 3.4%, easing again in 2027, while expecting the Fed funds rate to remain at 3.50% to 3.75%. Those targets assumed the worst was over. The forecast now coming from the bank's economists does not. More Economy: Bank of America CEO warns inflation will back Fed into a corner Bank of America just made a strong call on inflation, economy Goldman Sachs says Americans may pay for the AI boom Cheaper energy should still bring most of the relief next year. After that, the bank sees the path go flat. Everyday services stay in demand, and the huge spending on artificial intelligence keeps pushing up what companies pay for workers, materials, and building work. That last part worries the bank because it does not fade on its own the way fuel prices do. This is a quick change of heart. In May, that same team still expected two rate cuts, arguing the oil shock was temporary and that a weaker summer job market would force the Fed's hand. Then Kevin Warsh took over as chair, made clear he wants inflation down, and the cuts came out of the forecast. In their place is the prospect of a rate hike before year-end. July inflation looked better than it was July did not look like a month to worry about. Annual inflation slipped to 3.4% from 3.5%, and core prices, which leave out food and fuel, came in at 2.5%, according to NBC. Traders promptly cut the odds of a September rate rise to 42%. On the face of it, the cooling was on track. Story Continues Look under the headline, and energy is still expensive. Energy prices in July sat 14.7% above where they were a year earlier, the BLS confirmed. Housing costs, the one thing meant to bring steady relief, did most of the work in the monthly rise. Households can feel it. Inflation is running ahead of wage growth of 3.2%; hourly pay has been going backward once rising prices are stripped out, and with regular gasoline back around $4 a gallon in August, nothing at the pump feels cheap. Wells Fargo keeps coming back to that gap. Set against last year's high prices, this year's figures look tame, and the items doing most of that work are the ones that swing about anyway. Two calm months in a row are not much to build on.Wall Street has spent this year waiting for prices to calm down.Michael/Getty Images Oil, tariffs, and the electricity cost of the AI boom Oil comes first. Ships barely move through the Strait of Hormuz, and the International Energy Agency forecasts that global oil demand will decline by 1.6 million barrels a day in 2026, according to CNBC. The Gulf has also kept crude above where it sat before the war. Tariffs are the more persistent of the two pressures. Oil can drop back within weeks once shipping lanes reopen. Once tariffs are on, they sit in the price of every imported item until the government takes them off. The bank treats that cost as something the economy continues to carry, rather than something it shakes off. Then there is the electricity bill behind the AI boom. PJM, which runs the power grid across much of the eastern United States, released results of a power auction showing that data centers would add approximately $6.3 billion in costs to households and businesses over the next three years, according to Fast Company. Power is the visible part of a bill that Wells Fargo says also runs through wages, materials, and construction. Put the three side by side, and one thing still stands out. Higher interest rates do not open a shipping lane, cancel a tariff, or build a power station. The Fed can either accept that prices take longer to come down or keep rates high for a longer period of time. Warsh has not sounded like a man who will pick the first, and Wells Fargo has written that into its forecast. What this means for the Fed and for investors The July meeting showed how split the room is. Rates were held for a fifth meeting in a row, but three officials voted against it and wanted a quarter-point rise: Beth Hammack of Cleveland, Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis, and Lorie Logan of Dallas, CNBC reported. No one on the committee dissented in favor of a cut. Investors did not treat the hold as good news. The vote came with no hint about the next move; stocks sold off, and long-term Treasury yields were pushed higher. Wells Fargo is not the only bank shifting. Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan, now expects a rise in December. For anyone holding assets that do well when rates fall, the question has changed. It is not about when the cuts start. It is about whether the long slide in prices that followed the pandemic has ended, leaving high rates as the normal setting for this cycle. Long-dated bonds, heavily indebted companies, and rate-sensitive shares turn on the answer. Wells Fargo has picked its side,

ProPetro, Patterson-UTI, and HighPeak Energy Stocks Trade Up, What You Need To Know What Happened? A number of stocks jumped in the afternoon session after Iran ruled out extending a 60-day memorandum of understanding with the United States. The June 17 memorandum was meant to reopen Hormuz while the two sides negotiated a nuclear deal within 60 days, CNBC reported.President Trump told Fox News he has "no time schedule" and is "not in a hurry." A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran would shift from defense to offense if diplomacy fails. Energy stocks rebounded because they (energy companies) make more money when oil is scarce and expensive. If the strait stays blocked, less crude reaches the market, so the price of each barrel rises. The stock market overreacts to news, and big price drops can present good opportunities to buy high-quality stocks. Among others, the following stocks were impacted: Oilfield Services company ProPetro(NYSE:PUMP) jumped 4.4%.Is now the time to buy ProPetro? Access our full analysis report here, it's free. Oilfield Services company Patterson-UTI(NASDAQ:PTEN) jumped 5.3%.Is now the time to buy Patterson-UTI? Access our full analysis report here, it's free. U.S. Shale E&P company HighPeak Energy(NASDAQ:HPK) jumped 4.3%.Is now the time to buy HighPeak Energy? Access our full analysis report here, it's free. Zooming In On Patterson-UTI (PTEN) Patterson-UTI's shares are extremely volatile and have had 34 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today's move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business. The previous big move we wrote about was 3 days ago when the stock gained 3.9% on the news that the price of crude oil climbed due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and persistent supply concerns. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, the U.S. benchmark, rose to over $81 per barrel, while Brent crude, the international standard, neared $90. The gains follow reports of stalled ceasefire talks and a U.S. threat to maintain an indefinite naval blockade on Iran. These developments heighten fears of a wider conflict that could disrupt supply, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint where about one-fifth of the global oil supply transits daily. While data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed a significant weekly build in commercial crude stocks, the market appears more focused on the substantial geopolitical risks. This has also kept average U.S. gasoline prices above $4 per gallon, reflecting the volatility in energy markets. Story Continues Patterson-UTI is up 86.9% since the beginning of the year, and at $12.09 per share, it is trading close to its 52-week high of $12.85 from May 2026. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Patterson-UTI's shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $1,698. ONE MORE THING: 3 Hidden Platforms Growing 3X Faster than Amazon, Google, and PayPal. Amazon, Google, and Meta all followed the same playbook: Dominate an ignored market. Build an unbeatable moat. Scale until you're unstoppable. These three platforms are running that exact playbook right now. The early investors in Amazon made fortunes. The early investors in these could do the same. Get All 3 Stocks Here for FREE. View Comments

[Inflation Concept] XtockImages Canada’s headline inflation rate ticked up to 2.9% in July 2026 from 2.8% in June, slightly above market forecasts of 2.9% while remaining below its post-Iran-war peak of 3.2% set two months prior. On a month-over-month basis, consumer prices rebounded 0.5%, reversing the 0.4% decline recorded in the previous period. Gasoline price growth accelerated to 25.7% (up from 20.5% in June), reflecting global wholesale oil and refined product market trends as renewed US-Iran strikes led to tanker blockades in key shipping corridors. Driven by these energy pressures, the Bank of Canada's core inflation metrics edged slightly higher; the median core rate rose to 2.0%, while the trimmed-mean rate reached 1.9%. MORE ON CANADA ECONOMY: * USD/CAD: Fed Policies To Determine Outlook As Rates Become Decisive [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4922501-usdcad-fed-policies-to-determine-outlook-as-rates-become-decisive] * Société Générale sees dollar strength into year-end before longer-term retreat [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4629658-societe-generale-sees-dollar-strength-into-year-end-before-longer-term-retreat] * Canada offers concessions in a bid to avoid Trump’s 50% tariffs: NYT [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4629650-canada-offers-concessions-avoid-trump-tariffs] * Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating on Franklin FTSE Canada ETF [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FLCA/ratings/quant-ratings] * Dividend scorecard for Franklin FTSE Canada ETF [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FLCA/dividends/scorecard]

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Friday fell by -0.17%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) fell by -0.20%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) fell by -0.13%.  E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) fell -0.27%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) fell -0.16%. Stocks ended Friday lower on weak US retail sales and consumer sentiment reports.  The weak US economic reports slightly reduced the odds of a September Fed rate hike to 32% from 35% but also sparked worries about a weaker US economy and weaker corporate earnings.  The stock market was also concerned that the 10-year T-note yield rose by +5 bp despite the weak US economic reports, as inflation worries continue.Join 200K+ Subscribers: Find out why the midday Barchart Brief newsletter is a must-read for thousands daily. US tech stocks saw carry-over support from an overnight rally of more than +2% in the South Korean Kospi index, with Samsung Electronics and chip-maker SK Hynix rallying by more than +15% this week.  However, US chip stocks were weak on Friday on poor momentum and higher T-note yields, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF closing the day lower. July US retail sales fell -0.6% m/m, much weaker than market expectations of +0.1%.  Ex-autos and gas, July retail sales fell -0.2% m/m, weaker than market expectations of +0.3%.  July's weak month-on-month retail sales report was partly due to technical factors, as June sales were temporarily bolstered by World Cup spending and by Amazon’s Prime Day being held in June rather than in July last year.  Yet, the weak retail sales report suggested that US consumers are pulling back due to high prices, increased gasoline costs, and a lack of confidence in their finances. The University of Michigan’s preliminary August US consumer sentiment index fell by -4.2 points to 51.0, weaker than market expectations for only a small -0.2 point decline to 55.0 from July’s 55.2. Stocks had ongoing support from the favorable US inflation reports released earlier this week.  Wednesday’s July core CPI fell to match the 5.5-year low of +2.5% y/y originally posted early this year.  The nominal July CPI fell to +3.4% from June’s +3.5% but remained well above the 5.5-year low of +2.3% posted last year.  Thursday’s July PPI of +4.7% y/y was down from May’s 3.5-year peak of +5.9% y/y, although it was still far above the Fed’s inflation target of +2%.  The July core PPI eased to +4.1% from June’s +4.7%. Sep WTI crude oil prices (CLU26) on Friday rose by +1.42% on reports that two Abu Dhabi oil vessels were attacked by Iran on Thursday night while moving through the Strait of Hormuz.  However, oil prices traded below Tuesday’s 2-week high as the Trump administration pivots to economic pressure rather than fresh US military attacks to try to force Iran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the administration will soon announce unprecedented economic measures against Iran that “have never been seen in the history of economic isolation of a country.” The economic measures would add to the current US naval blockade of Iranian ports. There have been no signs of progress toward a US-Iran agreement to fully open the Strait of Hormuz.  An Iranian military spokesperson said Thursday that no ship can safely pass the Strait of Hormuz without Iran’s authorization and supervision and that President Trump’s claims of control over the Strait are “nothing more than lies.” The Iranian statement was in response to President Trump's comment late Tuesday that the US has “total control over the Hormuz Strait” and that “we own it.” The outlook for strong Q2 earnings is a bullish factor for stocks. The S&P 500 is tracking for earnings growth of almost 32% in Q2, well above projections of +23%, and nearly four times the average earnings growth rate outside of the Covid period since Q4 of 2013, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.  AI spending is expected to account for most of earnings, with AI infrastructure stocks set to contribute nearly 60% of the S&P 500's earnings-per-share growth in Q2.  So far, earnings results have been positive, with 85% of the 446 S&P 500 companies that have reported Q2 earnings beating estimates, according to Bloomberg data. The markets are discounting a 32% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on September 15-16, down from 35% on Thursday and 51% as recently as Tuesday. Overseas stock markets closed mixed on Friday.  The Euro Stoxx 50 closed down -0.09%.  China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.01%.  Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed up +0.59%. Interest Rates September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) on Friday fell -10 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield rose +4.0 bp to 4.682%.  The 10-year T-note yield rose despite the weak US economic reports as market participants continued to fret about inflation.  The 10-year breakeven inflation expectations rate rose +2.3 bp to 2.282%. Inflation expectations were in focus after Friday’s University of Michigan sentiment report for August showed that consumers expect 1-year inflation at a very high +4.3%, up from expectations of +4.2% in July. Expectations for 5-10 year inflation were unchanged at +3.3%, far above the Fed’s +2% inflation target. Thursday’s 30-year T-bond auction carried a yield of 5.216%, the highest since 2001.  Investors have recently demanded higher Treasury yields due to the US government’s massive budget deficit, high US inflation, Fed Chair Warsh's cutback in policy guidance, and market uncertainty about the Fed's inflation-fighting resolve. European government bond yields rose.  The 10-year German bund yield rose +7.3 bp to 3.204%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield rose +8.4 bp to 5.037%. Markets are discounting a 92% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on September 10. US Stock Movers The Magnificent Seven on Friday closed mostly lower, a negative factor for the overall market.  Meta (META) and Amazon.com (AMZN) were the biggest losers, each down about

Paul Morigi/ Getty Images; Jc Milhet/ Getty Images Moneywise and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue through links in the content below. America's economy may still be growing, but beneath the headline numbers, some of the country's biggest companies and financial institutions are seeing a troubling sign. Take Walmart. Few companies have a better window into the American consumer, with more than 150 million (1) U.S. customers visiting its stores and websites each week. So, when its executives notice shoppers changing their behavior, it's worth paying attention. Must Read Jeff Bezos backs a platform that lets anyone invest in rental homes for as little as $100 — 6 ways to build wealth like a landlord without actually being one JPMorgan still sees gold hitting $5,000/oz by Q4 — and savvy investors are protecting their wealth with a tax-advantaged Gold IRA. Learn more with a free guide from Priority Gold The tax breaks in Trump's 'big beautiful bill' expire after 2028 — and experts say most people won't act in time. What to do before the window closes Walmart CEO John Furner recently identified one particular source of pressure. "That's really the stress point, is the price of fuel," Furner said (2), adding, "Hopefully, we see some relief on energy prices." Walmart CFO John David Rainey has pointed to an even more tangible sign of the squeeze: Customers were filling their gas tanks with fewer than 10 gallons per visit on average. "That's an indication of stress," Rainey said (3). For someone with a tight budget, buying less fuel at a time can be a way of managing cash flow when a full tank has simply become too expensive. And the pressure may not stay confined to the pump. Rainey warned that persistently high fuel costs could eventually feed into the prices of other products, as transportation and energy expenses work their way through the economy. Bank of America's own customer data tells a similar story. Its May 2026 Consumer Checkpoint showed overall spending growth, but it also found (4) "signs of stress beneath the surface for some households." In particular, lower- and middle-income households were pulling back on discretionary spending, while the wage gains enjoyed by lower-income households over the previous year were barely enough to cover their increase in gasoline spending. TransUnion is seeing the strain from another angle: Americans' credit profiles. "Everyone has seen the effects of inflation somewhat equally — nobody escaped it," said (5) Michele Raneri, vice president and head of U.S. Research and Consulting at TransUnion. Story Continues But the consequences haven't been equal. Lower-income households "are struggling more than they did," Raneri said, adding that once debt-to-income levels are taken into account, "that's where you see that lower-income consumers are hit more." When one of America's biggest banks, its largest retailer and a major credit bureau are all pointing to the same problem, it suggests something serious: Headline inflation may have cooled from its pandemic-era highs, but the cost-of-living crisis is still hitting consumers where it hurts. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (6), food prices in the U.S. have increased 34% since the beginning of 2020, while housing costs are up around 33% (7). Energy prices, meanwhile, have surged nearly 43% (8) over the same period. Although the U.S. war with Iran appears to be the immediate concern behind higher energy prices, inflation itself isn't new. It's been steadily eroding Americans' purchasing power for decades. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis (9), $100 in 2026 had the same purchasing power as less than $12 in 1970. The good news? Throughout history, savvy investors have always found ways to shield themselves from inflation's bite — in war and in peace. Here's a look at three time-tested strategies. A classic safe haven When it comes to preserving wealth and fighting inflation, few assets have stood the test of time like gold. Its appeal is simple: Unlike fiat currencies, the yellow metal can't be printed at will by central banks. Gold is also considered the ultimate safe haven, as it's not tied to any one country, currency or economy, and in times of economic turmoil or geopolitical uncertainty, investors often flock to it — driving prices higher. Ray Dalio, founder of the world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, has repeatedly highlighted gold's role in a resilient portfolio. "People don't have, typically, an adequate amount of gold in their portfolio," Dalio told CNBC last year. "When bad times come, gold is a very effective diversifier." Over the past five years, as inflation continued to chip away at the purchasing power of the dollar, gold has climbed 146% (10). Other prominent voices see further potential. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has said that in this environment, gold can "easily" rise to $10,000 an ounce. One way to invest in gold that can also provide significant tax advantages is to open a gold IRA with the help of Goldco. Gold IRAs allow investors to hold physical gold or gold-related assets within a retirement account, combining the tax advantages of an IRA with the protective benefits of investing in gold. This makes gold a compelling potential option for those wanting to ensure their retirement funds are diversified during rough economic times. Goldco even offers free shipping and access to a library of retirement resources. Plus, the company will match up to 10% of qualified purchases in free silver. If you're curious whether this is the right investment to diversify your portfolio, you can download your free gold and silver information guide today. Just remember — gold is usually best used as only one part of your portfolio. Read More: Millionaires under 43 hold only 25% of their wealth in stocks. Here's where their money is actually going A time-tested income play Gold isn't the only asset inves

(Bloomberg) -- For most of his second term, President Donald Trump has been arguing that the "golden age" he promised for America's economy is already here. There's hardly been much evidence that voters agreed. Most Read from Bloomberg Selena Gomez Accused of Fraud by Mental-Health Startup Investors Costliest US Bond Sale Since 2001 Is Investor Warning to Bessent Anthropic in Talks to Buy AI Startup Decart for $6 Billion Walter Sells Lakers, Seeks More Cash to Pay Loans Amid DOJ Probe Phoebe Gates Knew Phia Shopping App Took Credit for Sales It Didn't Drive Now, with midterm elections less than three months away and campaigning poised to get underway in earnest, the gap has become impossible to ignore. And there are signs that's weighing on Trump's Republican Party as it fights to retain control of Congress. The president's rosy view is running into anxiety about the cost of living and fallout from the war in Iran. Inside the White House, there's broad confidence that the administration has a record to run on, one the president will likely be hammering from here to November. But other Republicans, including some people close to the president, are concerned that won't be enough, especially for candidates running in competitive races. They want him to offer fresh economic plans, such as further tax cuts expanding on last year's major law that's central to the GOP economic pitch. Whether he changes course or not, the current environment represents a reckoning for Trump, who relied on the economy as key political strength during his first term. Now, it's shaping up as a significant liability. The economic data itself offers a mixed picture. Unemployment is low, American consumers are buying plenty of stuff, and there are signs of a manufacturing revival. But inflation has been back above 3% — the level when Trump took office — since the president went to war with Iran alongside Israel in late February. Voters are laser-focused on the cost of living, as they've been ever since prices skyrocketed under former President Joe Biden and helped Trump win back the White House. They seem to have concluded that his second-term policies haven't helped. Just 39% approve of Trump's job performance, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average. Even fewer, 30%, approve of his handling of inflation. A 31% plurality of Americans in a new Economist/YouGov poll listed inflation and prices as their most important issue, 17 percentage points more than the second-most important topic, jobs and the economy. Story Continues 'Catch 22' All of this has left Republican candidates facing tight midterm races "in a Catch 22," said Marc Short, who served in the first Trump administration. "They are reluctant to criticize, because they think the president will come after them, but ultimately I think a lot of their voters want to see them stand up for their interests" on issues like trade, Short said. Trump has plenty of achievements to highlight but "it's hard to argue that his tariffs are not contributing to the affordability problems." Unease among some in Trump's circles was laid bare Tuesday afternoon on Fox Business, where former National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow interviewed his successor Kevin Hassett. Kudlow said he'd spoken with Trump about measures that would effectively lower capital gains taxes, and "the boss is very interested." Hassett said that Trump has now decided he can't campaign by looking backward. "He says, as we're going into the midterms, that he doesn't want to just sort of say how great it is what we've done in the past." Aides insist Trump is getting a clear-eyed readout of the state of things but is focusing on what he sees as positives. He wants to tout the soaring stock market that's lifted Americans' retirement accounts, and the tax cuts he pushed through last year. It's a plus to have gotten the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed in time for those measures to have a midterm impact, an official said. The president is also attuned to important indicators, including the price of beef, one White House official said. But another said the president's view of the economy is shaped in part by his frequent viewing of Fox News and Fox Business, which generally air pro-Trump assessments. 'On Day One' On the campaign trail, Trump has acknowledged voter concerns about high prices yet he has continued to blame Biden, who left office more than a year and a half ago. "Remember, we inherited the worst inflation in the history of our country," he said in Las Vegas on Aug. 5. "We brought down prices and nobody can believe what's going on." The cumulative increase in consumer prices during Biden's term was higher than under any other president in the past 40 years, though the pace had slowed by the time Trump took over. The new president promised to bring down prices "on day one." Instead inflation has accelerated again this year. Prices for many staples, including beef, veal and electricity, are still elevated. Housing remains unaffordable to many, with 30-year mortgage rates around 6.7%, their highest this year. But the key driver has been Trump's war with Iran and the energy shock it caused. Gasoline is above $4 a gallon, the latest into the summer it's been at that level in more than two decades of American Automobile Association data. Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have argued for months now that pump prices will plummet when the war is over, but while fighting has eased, there's little sign of an imminent resolution that would unlock oil supplies. Economists have said the buffer of tax savings and bigger refunds from the Trump tax bill, which helped Americans pay higher fuel prices without cutting back on other spending, is now gone. Peter Navarro, a longtime Trump economic aide, said the administration is aware of challenges around affordability. "We all understand that we're grappling with inflation and problems that are creating hardship for Americ

TOKYO (AP) — Asian shares mostly rose in early Thursday trading, as global market optimism continued on prospects for AI stocks and the semiconductor sector. Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 jumped 1.6% in early trading to 68,609.92. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.6% to 9,155.80. South Korea's Kospi surged 3.9% to 6,835.55. Hong Kong's Hang Seng edged up nearly 0.1% to 25,453.45, while the Shanghai Composite gained 0.4% to 3,961.82. Asian regional sentiments received a boost from the overnight performance of Wall Street, which finished just shy of a record Wednesday. Several AI stocks reported better growth for the spring than analysts expected, while a report showed inflation across the United States was slightly less bad last month. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% for its first gain since setting its all-time high on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 21 points, or less than 0.1%, and the Nasdaq composite climbed 0.5%. Stocks in the artificial intelligence technology business helped lead the way after strong profit reports bolstered hopes they can continue to deliver big-enough growth to justify the huge gains their prices have made. It's a return to strength for AI stocks, which have been veering on a roller-coaster ride. After surging to records, AI stocks came under pressure on worries that they shot too high. Investors wanted to see big spenders on AI prove their investments are yielding enough in profits and productivity to make them worth it. That in turn could lead to continued demand for chips and other AI infrastructure. Treasury yields fell after a report showed that U.S. consumers paid prices for gasoline, groceries and other costs of living last month that were 3.4% higher than a year earlier. That's higher than anyone would like, but it's not as bad as June's 3.5% inflation rate. The deceleration could give the Federal Reserve more leeway to hold off on hikes to interest rates. The Fed's members are notably split about whether they should have already begun hiking interest rates. But Wednesday's update on inflation pushed traders to pull back on bets the Fed will hike its main interest rate at its next meeting in September. That helped pull the yield on the 10-year Treasury down to 4.68% from 4.70% late Tuesday. It, though, still remains well above its 3.97% level from before the war with Iran, which sent oil prices and worries about inflation spiking. In energy trading, benchmark U.S. crude dipped $1.07 to $82.20 a barrel. Brent crude, the international standard fell $1.01 to $87.97 a barrel. That swung between modest gains and losses Wednesday. Story Continues All told, the S&P 500 rose 20.30 points to 7,748.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 21.58 to 53,770.27, and the Nasdaq composite gained 143.04 to 26,588.49. In currency trading, the U.S. dollar inched up to 159.43 Japanese yen from 159.41 yen. The euro cost $1.1525, down slightly from $1.1527. ___ AP Business Writer Stan Choe contributed to this report. ___ Yuri Kageyama is on Threads: https://www.threads.com/@yurikageyama View Comments

This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Adjusted EBITDA: $442 million for the second quarter and over $100 million for the half year. Refining Segment EBITDA: Almost doubled its contribution for the quarter. System Benchmark Margin: Averaged $9.5 per barrel in Q2, down from the previous quarter but well above the $5.7 average in the same period last year. Production and Sales Volumes: Much higher than last year, with production at 3.8 million tons for the quarter and 6.8 million tons for the half year. Capital Expenditures (CapEx): Exceeded $400 million in the first half, the highest ever posted for a first semester. Cash Flow: Second quarter cash flow was around $300 million, with net debt impact of $700 million versus the previous quarter. Net Debt: Below $2 billion, with a leverage ratio of 1.3% based on last 12 months' numbers. Refining CapEx: Almost $250 million for the half, including the Elefsina turnaround and improvement projects. Petrochemicals Benchmark Margin: Averaged above EUR700 per tonne for the quarter. Power Generation Capacity: Increased by about 60 megawatts due to the completion of two Romanian PV parks. Renewables Under Construction: Over half a gigawatt, with 250 megawatts of PV and battery projects expected to enter operation in the current quarter. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 7 Warning Sign with HLPMF. Is HLPMF fairly valued? Test your thesis with our free DCF calculator. Release Date: August 05, 2026 For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. Positive Points Record half-year financial performance with adjusted EBITDA of $442 million in Q2 and over $100 million for the half-year, driven by strong refining margins and operational excellence. Successful completion of the Aspropyrgos refinery turnaround with excellent safety records, leading to improved performance and higher production volumes. Strong margin capture and overperformance due to effective crude supply management, trading agility, and maximization of middle distillate production amid supply disruptions. Positive outlook for refining margins in 2027 and beyond, supported by supply-demand imbalances, underinvestment in European refining, and geopolitical factors. Renewables portfolio expanding as planned, with over half a gigawatt under construction and targets of 1-1.5 GW by 2028 and 2 GW by 2030, enhancing diversification. Negative Points High crude supply costs and volatility due to geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Gulf, impacting procurement and adding operational complexity. Domestic fuel demand declined by 6% in Q2, driven by high prices affecting gasoline and LPG consumption, though diesel and jet demand remained stable. The company faces potential windfall tax risks, as seen in Portugal, which could impact profitability if governments impose additional levies on refining profits. Inventory losses are expected in Q3 if oil prices remain low, partially offsetting the gains recorded in the first half of the year. The petrol station network is undergoing a reduction, with a trend of closing underperforming stations, which may impact long-term market presence. Story Continues Q & A Highlights Q: What is your outlook for refining margins in 2027 and beyond under scenarios of continued Middle East disruption, a return to 2023 conditions, or a return to 2019 conditions? How should investors view Hellenic's renewables business and exploration focus?A: Andreas Shiamishis (CEO): We cannot predict which scenario will prevail, but we believe refining margins in '27 will remain high due to fundamental reasons, not just the crisis. Demand for hydrocarbons is increasing, supply is constrained by underinvestment and geopolitical disruptions, and the refining asset base has changed. We are more positive on the refining business overall. Georgios Alexopoulos (Deputy CEO): Our balanced approach from Vision 2025 remains, investing in renewables while recognizing the continued relevance of hydrocarbons. We are investing in a balanced mix including wind, solar, and energy storage. On exploration, we do not expect to become an exploration super major, and the company's structure is unlikely to change significantly. Q: Could you explain the main difference between reported and adjusted EBITDA in the refining segment, the decrease in petrol stations, and the accounting gain from the farm-out of your E&P block?A: Vasilis Tsaitas (CFO): The difference is 90-95% inventory gains. In Q1, we recorded ~$150 million due to weighted average costing and higher crude procurement prices versus the benchmark. In June, we recorded a small loss as prices declined. The farm-out gain with Chevron was ~$17 million, a cash consideration for expenses paid before Chevron farmed in, which is net of taxes. Andreas Shiamishis (CEO): The reduction in petrol stations is an ongoing process of replacing underperforming stations with better-performing ones, a trend that will continue. Q: Could you clarify whether the 20 million contribution to lower fuel prices at the pump is a one-off measure for August, and whether the government could still consider a windfall tax on refining profits?A: Andreas Shiamishis (CEO): The discount is 0.05 per liter at the pump, and the value will be higher than 20 million as volumes pick up. We have not decided on extending it, but given our strong performance, we may consider it. On the windfall tax, Portugal is a different case with a much smaller system and lower investment. We are providing support to the Greek market through our commercial policy, but it is up to the government to decide. Q: How do you see refining margins developing towards year-end? Have you increased market share in international exports, and have you seen demand destruction?A: Vasilis Tsaitas (CFO): Our outlook for refining margins is strong, with cracks and margins reaching high levels post-Q2. International exports have increased, particularly in the Black

(Bloomberg) -- Underlying US inflation was subdued in July, likely easing pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Most Read from Bloomberg Phoebe Gates Knew Phia Shopping App Took Credit for Sales It Didn't Drive Trump Weighs Call for Capital Gains Tax Cuts as Midterm Boost Tata Sons Chairman to Step Down, Deepening Leadership Turmoil Five Takeaways From Zuckerberg's 6,500-Word Manifesto on AI Pakistan Says Deal Is Close Even as Iran, US Harden Stances The consumer price index, excluding often-volatile food and energy categories, increased 0.2% from a month earlier, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Wednesday. On an annual basis, it advanced 2.5%, matching the slowest pace since March 2021. Overall, consumer prices rose 0.1% from the prior month and 3.4% from a year earlier. Follow the reaction in real time here on Bloomberg's TOPLive blog The report suggests the impact of the energy-price shock from the Iran war continued to fade in July. The figures may give the Fed more room to weigh inflation pressures against a recent slowdown in hiring as it debates whether to lift borrowing costs at its Sept. 15-16 meeting. Policymakers will see additional reports on employment and inflation before the September meeting, and investors will be listening closely to Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's expected remarks at the central bank's annual Jackson Hole symposium later this month. US stock futures rose and Treasury yields fell as investors pared bets on a September rate hike. Energy and gasoline prices fell for a second month, while grocery prices fell for the first time since March, thanks in part to a record decline in lettuce prices amid the cyclospora outbreak. US gasoline prices rose above $4 a gallon again in July after a US-Iran ceasefire collapsed and hostilities reignited, but remained lower on average across the entire month than in June. Services prices, excluding energy and rents, rose a modest 0.2% following a decline the month before, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Goods prices, excluding food and energy commodities, rebounded following two months of declines. Shelter prices rose 0.1%, accounting for two-thirds of the overall increase, according to the BLS. Medical care and airfares were among other services categories that saw rising prices. Computer Inflation Computer software and accessories prices rose a record 21.2% from a year earlier, while computers, peripherals and smart home assistants advanced by the most in more than four years. Economists are monitoring the impact of price increases announced in June on popular consumer tech products like Apple Inc.'s Macs and iPads, which have been driven by a global shortage of memory chips amid a race to build data centers. Story Continues Figures on producer prices due Thursday will offer insights on additional categories that feed directly into the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, based on the price index for personal consumption expenditures, which will be released later this month. Core inflation by that measure has generally been running faster than in the CPI this year. In September, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will implement changes to how prices are calculated for certain categories in the PCE index, including legal services, computer software and investment advice. A separate report Wednesday that combines the inflation figures with recent wage data showed that real average hourly earnings declined 0.2% in July from a year earlier, extending a string of weak readings since the Iran war began. --With assistance from Augusta Saraiva, Jeffrey Sparshott and Julia Fanzeres. (Updates with more details beginning in eighth paragraph.) Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek Supercharged by Social Media, the GLP-1 Boom Is Warping Teen Psyches ICE Arrests Are Pushing Immigrant Families Deeper Into Poverty Suno Says AI Is the Future of Music. Record Labels Say It's Theft Lululemon Is At War With Itself With EV Sales Slowing, Hybrid Cars Are Hot Again ©2026 Bloomberg L.P. View Comments

By Shubham Batra NEW DELHI, Aug 12 (Reuters) - India's annual retail inflation accelerated to 4.45% in July on higher food prices, against 4.38% a ‌month ago, a pace that's unlikely to push the central bank ‌to change its outlook on raising interest rates. The July print was nearly in-line with a ​Reuters poll of economists, which had estimated inflation at 4.50%, and marked the second consecutive month in which inflation breached the Reserve Bank of India's 4% medium-term target. The central bank left its benchmark repo rate unchanged at 5.25% last week, ‌as policymakers awaited clearer ⁠evidence on whether inflationary pressures had become broad-based in Asia's third-largest economy. India's food inflation climbed to 5.52% in July from ⁠5.32% in June, on the back of weak monsoon showers, but it is expected to soften with a slight recovery in the rains in August that could ​mitigate further ​price pressures from the impact of ​El Nino. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said ‌that headline inflation has moved above target mainly because of higher fuel prices, while broader price pressures remained in check at the central bank's last monetary policy announcement earlier this month. The central bank also cut its inflation forecast for 2026/27 by 10 basis points to 5% at that meeting. India's ‌state-run fuel retailers raised petrol and diesel prices ​four times in May in response to ​rising costs due to the ​U.S.-Iran war. While a brief pause in the conflict pushed ‌global crude prices lower, they were ​still about 20% above ​pre-war levels. Economists said that while the price of crude oil was volatile during the month, the absence of any meaningful revision in domestic ​retail fuel prices is ‌expected to limit the pass-through to consumers. Still, transport inflation accelerated to ​4.43% in July from 4.31% in June. (Reporting by Shubham Batra in ​New Delhi; Editing by Ronojoy Mazumdar) View Comments

A top Federal Reserve official says she believes it will likely take more than one rate hike to quell the current wave of inflation, though she declined to identify a specific number. "I would say in general, one 25 basis point move probably doesn't do a whole lot for the economy," Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammacksaid in a Yahoo Finance interview published Monday. "So it's probably some number… But I don't want to prejudge what that number is going to be." Must Read Jeff Bezos backs a platform that lets anyone invest in rental homes for as little as $100 — 6 ways to build wealth like a landlord without actually being one Dave Ramsey warns nearly 50% of Americans are making 1 big Social Security mistake. Here's what it is and 3 simple steps to fix it ASAP Millionaires under 43 hold only 25% of their wealth in stocks. Here's where their money is actually going She added that the Fed shouldn't fade into the background regarding its mandate to ensure stable prices. "Markets are a complement for the Fed," Hammack told Yahoo Finance. "They're not a substitute. We have to stand behind our words with our actions when appropriate." Late last month, Fed officials voted 9-3 to keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.5% to 3.75% for the fifth time in a row. The three dissenting voices came from regional bank presidents who favored a quarter-point rate increase to address energy supply shocks from the Iran War that pushed up gasoline prices, along with the cost of plenty of other products that rely on diesel for transportation, such as groceries. Hammock was among them. "Now is the time to act," she said on Tuesday. At a recent City Club of Cleveland event, she said, "Inflation does not merely raise costs. It raises uncertainty." The Fed's next moves on inflation Hammack said after the Fed's July meeting that she had heard rising anxiety among consumers and businesses about the recent spike in prices. For many workers, inflation is swallowing most of their wage gains, while businesses grapple with higher shipping costs and inflation-weary customers. "What I have heard from across the Fourth Federal Reserve District reinforces this view: Businesses describe pricing pressures as broadening rather than fading, and consumers are expressing despair over persistently higher prices," Hammack said in a LinkedIn post. Fed officials won't reconvene again until mid-September, but a pair of inflation readings will set the stage for its next moves on rates. The July consumer price index (CPI) will be released on Wednesday, and most analysts believe it will show a 2.5% year-over-year increase after stripping out volatile energy and food prices. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge tracking personal consumption expenditures (PCE) will be published on Aug. 26. If the reports display a round of higher-than-anticipated price increases, pressure will mount on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to push through interest rate hikes. Story Continues Read More: Vanguard reveals what's coming for U.S. stocks — and it could be bad news for this group of investors The case to hold interest rates steady for now Not everyone's on board to increase interest rates right away. Fed Governor Lisa Cook, another FOMC voting member, said in an Aug. 5 speech that she believed price pressures would fade over time and supported sitting still on rates. She argued tariff-fueled inflation on products was mostly in the rearview mirror at this stage and cited analyst forecasts that oil prices would come down by year's end. She also expected AI supply chains to adjust and ward off the price increases on computer chips that are in extremely high demand from tech companies. "For these three reasons, I felt it was appropriate not to change rates while we see how these factors evolve," she said at an economic luncheon in Alaska. "If I do not see signs of continued disinflation soon, I am prepared to act." What To Read Next The tax breaks in Trump's 'big beautiful bill' expire after 2028 — and experts say most people won't act in time. What to do before the window closes Here's the average income of Americans by age in 2026. Are you keeping up or falling behind? Robert Kiyosaki says China is 'dumping' the US as America piles on debt. Fortify your riches with 4 key assets This fund has historically paid 8% or higher for 25 months, with just a $100 minimum to start — 4 ways to grow your cash without the stock market Join 250,000+ readers and get Moneywise's best stories and exclusive interviews first — clear insights curated and delivered weekly. Subscribe now. This article originally appeared on Moneywise.com under the title: Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack warns one rate hike won't cut it as inflation swallows workers' wage gains This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind. View Comments

BANGKOK (AP) — Asian shares were mostly higher Wednesday after U.S. stocks slipped a bit further from their records, while oil prices advanced as doubts persisted over when the war with Iran will allow crude to flow freely again. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 gained 0.6% to 67334.94. In South Korea, the Kospi gained 4% to 6,597.90 on renewed buying of computer chipmakers. Samsung Electronics gained 7.7% and memory chipmaker SK Hynix was up 7.1%. Taiwan's Taiex advanced 0.8%. The Shanghai Composite index added 0.3% to 3,946.51, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong slipped 1.2% to 25,352.13. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.6% to 9,197.00. The price of a barrel of Brent crude, the international standard, was up 0.9% at $89.67 early Wednesday. U.S. benchmark crude oil picked up 0.9% to $83.98. Iran has rejected U.S. President Donald Trump's comment that since Iran is seeking compensation as part of any talks on ending the war, he would demand the same. The United States and Israel attacked Iran in late February, which led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and kept much of the world's oil pent up in the Middle East. Last month alone, Brent's price veered between $72 and $102 per barrel. Meanwhile an attack by Iran-backed Houthi rebels on a vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb strait, at Yemen's southern tip, has raised concerns that the violence could reignite civil war and further threaten regional shipping routes. Higher oil prices make inflation worse, and they have sent the average cost for a gallon of regular gasoline to $4.01, according to AAA. That's up from less than $3.14 a year ago. That has Wall Street's attention focused on Wednesday, when the U.S. government will release the latest monthly reading on inflation. Economists expect it to show inflation slipped to 3.4% in July from 3.5% in June. Tuesday on Wall Street, the S&P 500 fell 0.3% for a second modest drop since setting its all-time high on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 184 points, or 0.3%, and the Nasdaq composite sank 0.6%. Cooler inflation could relieve pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to help tamp down price increases. Higher rates could curb inflation but they also would drag on the overall U.S. economy by making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money. They also would undercut prices for stocks and other investments. Treasury yields have jumped since the war with Iran because of higher oil prices and worries about inflation, sending long-term mortgage rates to their highest levels in a year. In other dealings early Wednesday, the U.S. dollar rose to 159.41 Japanese yen from 159.30 yen. The euro slipped to $1.1535 from $1.1544. ___ Associated Press Business Writers Matt Ott and Stan Choe contributed to this report. View Comments

Nathan Howard/ Getty Images Moneywise and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue through links in the content below. President Donald Trump says Americans' retirement accounts are enjoying a historic run — and he believes the best may still be ahead. During a recent interview with Fox News, Trump pointed to record stock prices, rising employment and a wave of new factory investment as evidence that the U.S. economy is firing on all cylinders. "We hit an all-time stock market high," Trump said (1). Must Read Jeff Bezos backs a platform that lets anyone invest in rental homes for as little as $100 — 6 ways to build wealth like a landlord without actually being one JPMorgan still sees gold hitting $5,000/oz by Q4 — and savvy investors are protecting their wealth with a tax-advantaged Gold IRA. Learn more with a free guide from Priority Gold The tax breaks in Trump's 'big beautiful bill' expire after 2028 — and experts say most people won't act in time. What to do before the window closes Then he turned to Americans' retirement savings. "401(k)s are the highest they've ever been by double and triple," he said. Trump did not explain precisely what he meant by "double and triple," and individual 401(k) returns vary widely depending on what workers own, when they began investing and how much they contribute. But his broader point was unmistakable: with stocks soaring to record highs, Americans who have stayed invested have had plenty to celebrate. The benchmark S&P 500 has gained about 29% since the beginning of Trump's second term, lifting retirement accounts along the way. According to Fidelity (2), the average 401(k) balance rose 11% from Q1 2025 to Q1 2026, reaching $141,000. Although a good boost, this doesn't qualify as double or triple. Vanguard (3) reported a similar trend, stating that "strong market performance in 2025 led directly to substantial increases in retirement accounts." Its average 401(k) balance rose 13% in 2025 to an all-time high of $167,970. And Trump believes the country is only beginning to feel the benefits of his economic agenda. "This is the GOLDEN AGE OF AMERICA, and we're just getting started," he wrote in a Truth Social post (4). 'America is WINNING!' Trump has been particularly bullish on one corner of the economy: manufacturing. "Manufacturing is BOOMING!" he wrote in the same post, pointing to U.S. factory activity reaching its fastest pace in more than four years. Exports are another area he has highlighted. "American Exports are on FIRE. U.S. Goods Exports have now topped 200 BILLION DOLLARS for the fifth consecutive month," he added. "We are on pace for nearly 2.5 TRILLION DOLLARS in Goods Exports this year — Numbers nobody thought possible just two years ago." Story Continues And once again, he pointed to Wall Street as evidence that investors are buying into the story. "The Stock Market is at an ALL TIME HIGH, and setting Record after Record because Investors know America is WINNING!" he wrote. For retirement savers, that raises a simple question: are you participating? Read More: Millionaires under 43 hold only 25% of their wealth in stocks. Here's where their money is actually going Put America's growth to work — start with free money For many Americans, building long-term wealth does not begin with identifying the next Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) or guessing which industry will benefit most from Trump's policies. It starts with taking full advantage of the benefits already available through the workplace. If your employer offers a 401(k) match, contributing enough to receive the full match is often one of the most attractive first steps. For example, an employer that matches contributions dollar for dollar up to a certain percentage of salary is effectively adding money to your retirement account whenever you contribute. That is why an employer match is often described as "free money" — and why many investors prioritize capturing it before moving on to other accounts. From there, investors may consider contributing to an IRA, increasing their 401(k) contributions further and eventually investing additional money through a taxable brokerage account. The exact order will depend on factors such as taxes, income, debt, liquidity needs and whether someone has access to an employer retirement plan. But one principle remains consistent: the earlier money gets invested, the longer it has to compound. And you do not need to be an expert stock picker to participate in that growth. Investing legend Warren Buffett has repeatedly argued (5) that for most people, "the best thing to do is own the S&P 500 index fund." By tracking the index, investors gain exposure to 500 of America's largest companies across a wide range of industries, providing instant diversification without the need for constant monitoring or active trading. The beauty of this approach is its accessibility — anyone, regardless of wealth, can take advantage of it. Even small amounts can grow over time with tools like Acorns, a popular app that automatically invests your spare change. Signing up for Acorns takes just minutes: link your cards, and Acorns will round up each purchase to the nearest dollar, investing the difference — your spare change — into a diversified portfolio. That coffee for $3.25? It's now a 75-cent investment in your retirement. With Acorns, you can invest in an S&P 500 ETF with as little as $5 — and, if you sign up today with a recurring investment, Acorns will add a $20 bonus to help you begin your investment journey. If you prefer a hands-off, tech-forward approach to building wealth, another option is Vanguard's Digital Advisor, which puts the investing expertise of one of the world's largest asset managers right at your fingertips. It takes the guesswork out of investing by building a personalized portfolio for you using Vanguard's well-known low-cost ETFs and mutual funds — then keeps things running smoothly with automatic rebal

The rise in oil prices has revived inflation fears (Frederic J. BROWN) Oil prices fell back in choppy trading and stock markets were marginally higher Tuesday as investors weighed fading expectations of higher interest rates against concern over oil flows from the Middle East. Oil prices initially rose more than two percent with the United States and Iran appearing to not make much progress towards a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil contracts later gave up those gains, but are still up around 10 percent in the past five days and are trading near their highest levels since early June. "Crude oil has surged over the past few days as hopes of a US-Iran agreement that would fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz have faded," said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com. But "we have also heard contradictory messages from Washington and Tehran", he said. In New York, the Dow and the wider S&P edged higher while the tech-heavy Nasdaq opened lower. In mid-afternoon European trading Frankfurt, London and Paris were all up slightly. "The slight drop in expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes following the weak US payroll report have supported equities," said David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation. "But rising crude oil prices... and further delays in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, have introduced fresh inflation risks." Asian equities ended mixed, with Tokyo closed for a holiday. In their latest exchanges, Donald Trump and Iranian leaders each insisted Monday that they were owed reparation payments by the other. The prospect of oil prices remaining elevated for the time being has revived concerns over inflation and boosted the chances of higher interest rates. Last week's report of a surprise loss of over 20,000 jobs in the US economy last month had eased fears of a Federal Reserve rate hike. Attention now turns to the release of US consumer price data on Wednesday, which could play a key role in guiding the Fed on its next move. "The Fed problem is becoming more awkward," said Patrick Munnelly at the Tickmill Group. "Labour-market cooling can justify patience, but energy-driven inflation can undermine that patience if it lifts headline CPI, gasoline prices and household inflation expectations," he said. - Key figures around 1340 GMT - Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.7 percent at $87.12 per barrel West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.6 percent at $8.64 per barrel New York - DOW: UP 0.3 percent at 54,143.03 points New York - S&P 500: UP 0.1 percent at 7,758.40 New York - Nasdaq Composite: DOWN 0.2 percent at 26,540.53 London - FTSE 100: UP 0.1 percent at 10,870.78 points Story Continues Paris - CAC 40: UP 0.1 percent at 8,733.60 Frankfurt - DAX: UP 0.4 percent at 26,415.45 Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: DOWN 1.1 percent at 25,652.82 (close) Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 0.8 percent at 3,934.09 (close) Tokyo - Nikkei 225: Closed for holiday Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1541 from $1.1543 on Monday Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3499 from $1.3508 Dollar/yen: DOWN at 159.24 yen from 159.31 yen Euro/pound: UP at 85.52 pence from  85.45 pence dan-ajb/bcp/gv/js View Comments

Photo by Michael Siluk/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images Moneywise and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue through links in the content below. Americans who have spent years waiting for cheaper mortgages may face another painful disappointment. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed for a fifth straight week to 6.69% as of Aug. 6 — its highest level since July 2025, according to Freddie Mac (1). Must Read Jeff Bezos backs a platform that lets anyone invest in rental homes for as little as $100 — 6 ways to build wealth like a landlord without actually being one JPMorgan still sees gold hitting $5,000/oz by Q4 — and savvy investors are protecting their wealth with a tax-advantaged Gold IRA. Learn more with a free guide from Priority Gold The tax breaks in Trump's 'big beautiful bill' expire after 2028 — and experts say most people won't act in time. What to do before the window closes Now, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeff Schmid is arguing (2) that monetary policy may not be tight enough. "My primary concern is inflation," Schmid said in an Aug. 4 speech. He called inflation "too high" and said returning it to the Fed's 2% target will require "tighter policy." Schmid didn't specify when or by how much rates should rise. But he isn't alone: The Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.5% to 3.75% (3) at its latest meeting, while three officials voted for a hike. That spells trouble for Americans hoping to buy real estate. At 6.69%, principal and interest on a $400,000 30-year mortgage would cost approximately $2,578 per month. At February's brief low of 5.98%, the same loan would have cost about $2,393. That's roughly $185 more per month, or over $2,200 per year, before property taxes, insurance and homeowners association fees. Mortgage relief is out of reach The Fed doesn't directly set mortgage rates. However, its decisions influence bond-market expectations and borrowing costs throughout the economy. Mortgage rates tend to follow the 10-year Treasury yield, which recently reached 4.65%. That's up sharply from 3.97% before the U.S.-Iran conflict began in February, according to the Associated Press (4). The conflict helped drive oil prices higher, renewing fears that energy costs could reignite inflation. In June, consumer prices were 3.5% higher than one year earlier, while energy prices had surged 15.7% and gasoline prices had jumped 26.7%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (5). There were some encouraging signs. Overall prices fell 0.4% between May and June, while core inflation — which excludes volatile food and energy costs — was 2.6% year over year. Story Continues The next major test arrives Aug. 12, when the BLS releases July's inflation report. A hotter-than-expected number could strengthen the case for another rate hike and place additional upward pressure on borrowing costs. Homebuyers can't control the Fed or the bond market. But they can reconsider how they approach real estate, shop more carefully for financing and position their savings to benefit from higher rates. Read More: Millionaires under 43 hold only 25% of their wealth in stocks. Here's where their money is actually going Get into real estate without taking out a 6.69% mortgage Buying a rental property outright usually requires a large down payment, mortgage approval, closing costs and enough cash to cover maintenance, taxes and unexpected vacancies. At today's rates, financing those expenses could make it much harder for a property to generate positive cash flow. Platforms like Arrived let you buy shares in rental homes, potentially earn dividends and leave the property management to someone else. Backed by investors including Jeff Bezos, Arrived offers SEC-qualified investments starting at $100. Both accredited and non-accredited investors can browse vetted properties, select one and choose how many shares to buy. For a limited time, open an account and add at least $1,000 and Arrived will credit your account with a 1% match. However, fractional investments won't provide the control or personal use that comes with owning a home and real estate investments can lose value. Still want the keys? Make lenders compete For Americans determined to buy a home, the rate quoted by one lender is not necessarily the rate they must accept. Mortgage offers can vary based on the lender, loan type, credit score, down payment and fees. Even a difference of a quarter of a percentage point can translate into thousands of dollars over a long mortgage term. Freddie Mac (6) recommends obtaining quotes from three to five lenders to secure the best mortgage rate possible. To make this process easier, places like the Mortgage Research Center (MRC) can help you quickly compare rates and estimated monthly payments from multiple vetted lenders. By entering basic details — such as your zip code, property type, price range and annual income — you can view mortgage offers tailored to your needs. Homebuyers should also avoid stretching their budget because they expect the Fed to cut rates later. Refinancing may be possible if rates fall, but there is no guarantee that they will and refinancing comes with a new round of fees and qualification requirements. Make higher rates pay you on your savings Higher rates punish borrowers, but they can reward savers. A high-yield account like a Wealthfront Cash Account can be a great place to grow your uninvested cash, offering both competitive interest rates and easy access to your money when you need it. A Wealthfront Cash Account currently offers a base APY of 3.30% through program banks and new clients can get an extra 0.75% boost during their first three months on up to $150,000 for a total variable APY of 4.05%. That's 10 times the national deposit savings rate, according to the FDIC's June report. Additionally, Wealthfront is offering new clients who enable direct deposit ($1,000/monthly minimum) to their Cash Ac

[Data analyzing in commodities energy market: the charts and quotes on display. US WTI crude oil price analysis. Stunning price drop for the last 20 years.] SlavkoSereda/iStock via Getty Images Crude oil futures spiked Monday as prospects for a deal to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping traffic faded further after Iran said it sought billions in U.S. reparations, the unfreezing of Iranian assets, and the removal of American troops in the Persian Gulf. In response [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4630091-trump-demands-iranian-compensation-amid-ongoing-conflict], President Trump issued his own demand for compensation from Iran, "for all of the people that they have killed and gravely wounded with their roadside bombs and many conflicts," and for payments "to the families of the hundreds of thousands of innocent protestors that Iran has killed over the last 50 years." Trump signaled over the weekend that he was prepared to let economic pressure on Iran build rather than launch fresh military strikes to force a reopening of the strait, where visible traffic remains at a trickle compared to the normal usage. The White House also issued another 90-day waiver of the Jones Act, part of Trump's effort to keep gasoline and other fuel costs down. "Given that the strait is still closed, global inventories have been reduced dramatically, and flows are nowhere near normal levels, we could see shorts cover aggressively," TD Securities global head of commodity strategy Bart Melek said in a note. "We continue to expect Brent to trade $10-15 above current levels." Also, crude oil stockpiles in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve have fallen below 300M barrels, the lowest level since January 1983, according to data released by the Department of Energy on Monday. After the two top oil ⁠benchmarks fell more than 7% last week on hopes for a deal that would reopen Hormuz, front-month Nymex crude (CL1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CL1:COM]) for September delivery and front-month Brent crude (CO1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CO1:COM]) for October delivery both jumped 5% on Monday to finish at $82.13/bbl and $87.72/bbl, respectively. U.S. natural gas futures (NG1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NG1:COM]) also rose on hot near-term weather forecasts and global supply concerns stemming from the continuing Middle East conflict; the front-month Nymex September contract gained 4.9% to $2.794/MMBtu. Diesel prices rose even more dramatically, with front-month Nymex ultra-low sulfur diesel (HO1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/HO1:COM]) for September delivery surging 7.3% to $4.1898/gal, as attacks on refineries in Russia by Ukraine and in Saudi Arabia by Houthis added to concerns about Hormuz's continued closure. "The refinery attacks have taken substantial amounts of diesel off the market," Mizuho’s Robert Yawger said in a note. "Unless there are big breakthroughs in the peace process around both conflicts, large amounts of diesel will remain shut in." U.S. inventories of distillate fuels, which include diesel and heating oil, totaled 107.2M barrels as of July ⁠31, ​the lowest for this time of year in 30 years. The energy sector easily ranked as the top gainer among S&P industry sectors, and Exxon Mobil (XOM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XOM]) jumped 4.2% for its largest percentage increase in four months. Nine of the day's 15 biggest gainers on the S&P 500 are in the energy sector: APA (APA [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/APA]) up 9%, Marathon Petroleum (MPC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MPC]) up 7.4%, Diamondback Energy (FANG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FANG]) up 5.8%, Phillips 66 (PSX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/PSX]) up 5.7%, Valero Energy (VLO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VLO]) up 5.6%, EOG Resources (EOG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/EOG]) up 5.5%, Devon Energy (DVN [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DVN]) up 5.5%, Halliburton (HAL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/HAL]) up 5.5%, SLB (SLB [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SLB]) up 5.3%. ETFs: (USO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USO]), (BNO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BNO]), (UCO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UCO]), (SCO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SCO]), (USL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USL]), (DBO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DBO]), (DRIP [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DRIP]), (GUSH [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GUSH]), (USOI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USOI]), (UNG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UNG]), (BOIL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BOIL]), (KOLD [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/KOLD]), (UNL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UNL]), (FCG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FCG]), (XLE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XLE]) MORE ON CRUDE OIL * Bankrupting Tehran: The Big Flaw In Trump's Iran Strategy [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4934217-bankrupting-tehran-the-big-flaw-in-trumps-iran-strategy] * WTI Extends Rebound As Middle East Risks Support Prices [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4934176-wti-extends-rebound-middle-east-risks-support-prices] * XLE: The 40% Rally Has A Hormuz Problem [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4933962-xle-the-40-percent-rally-has-a-hormuz-problem]

New York Stock Exchange trading floor ©Bear Bull Traders U.S. stock futures were mixed but generally positive on Monday as investors weighed diminishing prospects for a rapid resolution to the Iran conflict against expectations for important U.S. inflation data later this week. Markets were also digesting Berkshire Hathaway's (NYSE:BRK.B) latest results, which showed new chief executive Greg Abel beginning to deploy more of the conglomerate's enormous cash reserves into equities. U.S. futures edge higher after weak jobs report S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures moved modestly higher, while Dow futures were slightly weaker as traders assessed developments in the Middle East and looked ahead to Wednesday's U.S. Consumer Price Index report. By 03:05 ET (07:05 GMT), Dow futures were down 25 points, or 0.1%, while S&P 500 futures gained 8 points, or 0.1%. Nasdaq 100 futures performed more strongly, rising 86 points, or 0.3%. Wall Street's major indices advanced on Friday after employment figures showed the U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July. Data for the previous two months was also revised substantially lower, raising fresh questions over the resilience of the labour market. Investors interpreted the weaker employment picture as reducing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates next month. U.S. government bond yields subsequently declined, while the dollar weakened following the report. Iran sets conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz Geopolitical uncertainty remained a significant influence on markets after Iran outlined a series of conditions it says must be satisfied before the Strait of Hormuz can fully reopen. According to Iranian state news agency IRNA, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council said Washington would need to permanently end the war, remove the naval blockade, eliminate sanctions, release frozen Iranian assets and pay war reparations. Iran is also demanding an end to threats and insults as well as U.S. military operations against Tehran's allies. The conditions highlight the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz in Iran's continuing confrontation with the U.S. and Israel. The waterway handles approximately one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, meaning continued restrictions on tanker traffic could have significant consequences for energy markets and the wider global economy. Oil prices strengthened against this backdrop. Brent crude futures rose 0.5% to $83.95 per barrel by 03:23 ET after experiencing significant volatility throughout the conflict. Story Continues Berkshire Hathaway puts more cash to work Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.B) reduced its record cash holdings to $364.7 billion during the second quarter as chief executive Greg Abel increased investment activity and the conglomerate reported a doubling of net profit. Abel, who succeeded Warren Buffett as chief executive at the beginning of the year, oversaw Berkshire becoming a net buyer of equities for the first time in 15 quarters. The company deployed billions of dollars into existing major holdings, including Google parent Alphabet. Berkshire also repurchased $4.53 billion of its own shares during the three months to June, representing a significant acceleration from the relatively limited activity recorded during the first quarter. The conglomerate had resumed share buybacks during the opening three months of the year after going more than a year without repurchasing its own stock. U.S. inflation report becomes the next major test Investors are now preparing for Wednesday's U.S. Consumer Price Index release, which could play an important role in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve's next policy decisions. Headline CPI inflation is forecast to ease slightly to 3.4% year-on-year in July from 3.5% previously. Energy prices remain an important component of the inflation outlook after gasoline costs increased following the start of the Iran conflict in late February. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, is expected to moderate to 2.5% from 2.6%. Vital Knowledge analysts noted that inflation at these levels would remain well above the Federal Reserve's target. Policymakers therefore face a difficult balance between controlling persistent price pressures and avoiding additional damage to an economy where the labour market is beginning to show signs of weakness. China inflation slows more than expected China also delivered softer inflation figures, with consumer price growth slowing more sharply than economists had anticipated in July while factory-gate deflation moderated. Official National Bureau of Statistics data showed consumer prices increased 0.5% year-on-year, down from 1.0% in June and marking the weakest annual increase in six months. Economists had expected inflation of 0.8%. On a monthly basis, CPI declined 0.1%, compared with forecasts for a 0.2% increase and following a 0.3% fall in June. ING analysts highlighted a particularly significant shift in transportation fuel inflation, which slowed to 0.8% year-on-year in July from 15.3% in June. "Other than volatility in energy prices, we continue to see the main drags on inflation coming from food and rent," analysts wrote. Berkshire Hathaway stock price View Comments

(Bloomberg) -- Bond investors are bracing for labor market data Friday, which could cool growing expectations the Federal Reserve raises interest rates at its next meeting in September. Most Read from Bloomberg OpenAI's New Device Will Be Hockey Puck-Sized and Cost Over $300 Iran Wants to Bar US, Israeli Ships From Hormuz in Peace Accord Iran Says Agreement on Hormuz Shipping Reached With Oman Trump Administration Considers Order on Autism and Vaccines Ishbia's Mortgage Firm Suffers Record Drop on Dividend Halt The swaps market has been assigning more than a 50% chance of a quarter-point hike on Sept. 16. These odds edged higher Thursday after the Financial Times reported that Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is prepared to raise rates if inflation readings are hot in the coming weeks. Weakness in the labor market could cool concerns that it is fanning inflation. US inflation data for July including the consumer and producer price indexes are due next week, potentially sealing the direction of interest rates. "If you are the Fed chairman you want a Goldilocks jobs number, and not something too strong or too weak," said Hank Smith, head of investment strategy at Haverford Trust. "Our base case has been for most of this year that we get one rate hike in December and we acknowledge the probabilities have risen that you could see a hike in September." The upcoming data releases have taken on added importance as Warsh's Fed weans markets off so-called "forward guidance," which refers to publicly signaling interest-rate policy far in advance of official decisions. Markets will instead look to draw signals from the data on the outlook for the Fed's rate decisions. Economists expect the employment report will show about 80,000 were created in July, with more jobs added than in June but still among the lowest totals this year. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Tuesday aligned with a stable labor market with limited layoffs. In a sign of growing market uncertainty over the Fed's path, traders have been spending millions in the Treasury options market over the past week for protection against rising yields. Open interest in put options on 10-year note futures surged with strike prices corresponding to yields near 5%, a level briefly exceeded in 2023 for the first time since 2007. Thursday's flows included a hedge against 30-year yields rising to around 5.3%. It reached 5.28% on July 31, the highest level since 2007. In short-term rate futures, activity has been more balanced, reflecting uncertainty about the outcome of the September meeting. Wednesday's session featured a large new position in options on the Secured Overnight Financing Rate anticipating no change in rates. The wager stands to gain if the jobs data are soft. Story Continues Expectations for more than one Fed rate increase this year eased after policymakers held rates steady in July, even as three dissented in favor of raising them. The market is pricing in one move this year and another by mid-2027. Interest-rate strategists at Wells Fargo & Co. this week said the market is likely to respond more forcefully to a strong jobs report than to a weak one, with "any signs of wage pressure" able to "rebuild hike expectations" causing two-year Treasury yields to rise. "After last week's FOMC meeting, markets priced out hikes as they became concerned around the Fed's willingness to hike to fight inflation, but have become more short the long-end given worries of long-run inflation becoming higher," said Molly Brooks, US rates strategist at TD Securities. "A hotter labor print could pour gasoline on the fire, where investors become concerned with both inflation and a labor market that could be reigniting growth." A gauge of wage growth increased to 3.5% in June from 3.4%, which had been the lowest reading in recent years. "With confusion around the Fed reaction function, I do think that surprises in the labor market have the potential to move markets more," said Priya Misra, portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management. Misra said a weaker jobs report would cause a bigger reaction, as a strong labor print would be within market expectations. Dhiraj Narula, an interest-rate strategist at HSBC, said he is looking to next week's inflation print for direction, as Fed members have continued to voice concerns about its persistence. "We think next week's inflation data is more important, particularly as several policymakers who supported holding rates steady in July have noted that further signs of persistent inflation would motivate action," Narula said. --With assistance from Edward Bolingbroke. Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek How Apple and India Built an Alternative iPhone Production Hub Lululemon Is At War With Itself TikTok Withheld a Safety Feature From Millions. One Died by Suicide Armed With $10 Billion, Sequoia's Leaders Plan Its New Era Americans Are Rethinking Their Love Affair With Plant Milks ©2026 Bloomberg L.P. View Comments

BANGKOK (AP) — Shares were mixed in Asia on Friday after a modest retreat on Wall Street, while oil prices gained more than 1%. Selling of computer chipmakers and other stocks linked to the boom in artificial intelligence appeared to taper off a bit as Tokyo's Nikkei 225 lost 0.3% to 65,500.10. The Kospi in South Korea dropped 0.8% to 6,242.88 and Taiwan's Taiex fell 0.4%. The Shanghai Composite index gained 0.8% to 3,931.54 after China reported its exports grew at a slightly slower but still robust pace of about 24% in July on strong demand for electronics and other high-tech products. China's huge trade surplus narrowed last month and imports also slowed. Hong Kong's Hang Seng edged 0.2% higher, to 25,582.34. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 slipped less than 0.1%, to 9,265.20. On Thursday, stocks declined on Wall Street as oil prices rose and more company earnings reports rolled in. The S&P 500 fell 0.2% and the Dow industrials fell 0.9%. The Nasdaq composite fell 0.1%. The price of Brent crude rose nearly 4% on Thursday as progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, vital to securing stable oil supplies, remained unclear. Iran has said it is close to a deal with Oman for reopening the strait. U.S. President Donald Trump has also previously said a deal is close, but the conflict has had many starts and stops over the past five months. Reopening the strait may require a compromise since the Trump administration has ruled out Iran charging fees to ships. But Iran has insisted on some measure of control, saying the strait will not go back to being an international waterway. As of early Friday, a barrel of Brent, the international standard, was up 1.6% at $83.78. U.S. benchmark crude oil advanced 1.2% to $78.22 per barrel. A fifth of the world's traded oil and natural gas once passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have surged as high as $113 due to the war and higher prices have added more heat to inflation by raising the price of gasoline and raising costs for shipping. While markets are still weighed down by worries over the war and over a possible bubble in investments in artificial intelligence, strong overall corporate profits have helped allay concerns on Wall Street about shares being overpriced. Roughly 85% of companies in the S&P 500 have reported their results and overall earnings growth for the period is shaping up to be the strongest since 2021. Warner Bros. Discovery rose 1.7% after reporting earnings that came in ahead of what investors were expecting. Molson Coors rose 1.3% after also reporting encouraging financial results. Story Continues On the losing end, Honeywell Aerospace fell 23.2% after turning in results that fell well short of forecasts. AppLovin slumped 19.7% after the digital ad company reported mixed financial results for its most recent quarter. Outside of earnings, SpaceX rose 6.1%. More than 911 million SpaceX shares held by early investors and employees became eligible for sale Thursday as a lockup period for the stock expired. That is more than double the shares that were initially offered to the public for sale during the initial public offering for Elon Musk's company. SpaceX jumped as high as $225 a share following its market debut in June, but has since slumped below its initial $135 offering price. The stock is currently trading around $115. The latest monthly jobs report, for July, will be released Friday. U.S. employment remains strong, but growth in hiring has been easing. A weekly report on Thursday showed the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits rose last week, though layoffs remain in the historically healthy range of the past few years. Employers pulled back on hiring in June, adding only 57,000 jobs. In other dealings early Friday, the dollar fell to 158.35 Japanese yen from 158.42 yen. The euro was unchanged at $1.1524. ___ Associated Press Writer Damian J. Troise in New York contributed to this report. View Comments

BANGKOK (AP) — Asian shares were mostly lower and South Korea's Kospi dropped more than 4% on Thursday following declines for some Big Tech giants including memory chipmaker SK Hynix. Oil prices held steady, with Brent crude trading near $79 a barrel. Uncertainty about the direction of the U.S. war with Iran is still overhanging markets despite hopes for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Markets will get an update Friday on U.S. jobs with the monthly employment report for July, and analysts say investors appear to be bracing for its potential impact. "Asia's chip selloff looks like a combination of profit-taking and risk reduction ahead of Friday's nonfarm payroll report," Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said in a commentary. Strong corporate profits and expectations for more growth ahead generally have been steering U.S. stocks higher. But Asian benchmarks have been hit by bouts of selling of computer chipmakers and other companies related to the boom in artificial intelligence. SK Hynix was down 9.7% after dropping ahead of the open in Seoul, while its larger rival Samsung Electronics lost 6.1% in the latest rout for shares linked to the AI boom. The Kospi lost 4.5% to 6,306.40. Japan's Nikkei 225 lost 1.2% to 65,538.44. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng declined 1.8% to 25,463.51, while the Shanghai Composite index was nearly unchanged at 3,878.92. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.5%. U.S. President Donald Trump said a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was coming soon. But there have been many stops and starts during the five-month-old conflict that has stifled the global supply of oil and rattled energy markets. The price of Brent crude, the international standard, fell 0.3% to $79.24 a barrel. Oil prices have been swinging for months and were as high as $102 per barrel at one point during the conflict, jolting already stubbornly high inflation. Higher oil prices pushed gasoline prices higher and increased shipping costs for a wide range of products. U.S. benchmark crude oil declined 0.4% to $74.93 a barrel. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 slipped 0.2% from an all-time high to close at 7,723.55. The Dow industrials rose 0.5% to 54,349.12. The Nasdaq composite lost 0.8% to 26,363.44. Among big technology companies losing ground, Google's parent company, Alphabet, fell 4% and Microsoft lost 1.1%. Overall, the market has been rising as companies head into the closing stretch of their latest round of earnings reports with sharp overall gains. Three-quarters of the companies within the S&P 500 have reported results so far, and Wall Street expects profit growth of 50% when they are all finished. Story Continues The Walt Disney Co. rose 3.6% after easily beating Wall Street's profit forecasts, helped by a $1 billion box office haul from "Toy Story 5" and theme park revenue. Booking Holdings jumped 6.6% after reporting that strong travel demand drove profit and revenue growth during its most recent quarter. Elon Musk's SpaceX fell 13.6% following the release late Tuesday of its first quarterly report as a public company, which showed that it sharply boosted spending on artificial intelligence. The company did help give semiconductor giant Nvidia a 3.4% boost after announcing it would exclusively use that company's chips for its artificial intelligence technology. Musk had said earlier he would use chips from both Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices for SpaceX and his electric vehicle company, Tesla. Inflation concerns have been hanging over markets and the Federal Reserve. The central bank has been holding its key benchmark rate steady as it monitors the costs and the impact on the economy. In other dealings early Thursday, the dollar flipped to 157.73 Japanese yen from 157.77 yen. The euro fell to $1.1549 from $1.1555. ___ Associated Press writer Damian J. Troise contributed. View Comments

Walmart Inc. WMT entered fiscal 2027 with solid sales growth, but higher fuel costs created a meaningful drag on operating income in the first quarter. The company absorbed approximately $175 million of higher-than-planned fuel costs across its global distribution and fulfillment operations. This pressure reduced operating income growth by about 250 basis points. Even with the added expense, adjusted operating income in constant currency increased 5.1% to $7.5 billion, while reported operating income rose 5%. The margin impact was also visible in the broader cost structure. Walmart's gross profit rate increased six basis points to 24.3%, helped by favorable merchandise category mix and business mix, including advertising. However, higher fuel costs in the supply chain partly offset those benefits. Adjusted operating expenses as a percentage of net sales rose 23 basis points to 21.1%. Walmart also indicated that elevated fuel costs are affecting both the company and its suppliers through the cost of goods sold. If the current cost environment continues, WMT expects somewhat higher retail price inflation in the second quarter and the second half of the year. Despite the first-quarter pressure, Walmart maintained its fiscal 2027 outlook for adjusted operating income growth of 6% to 8% in constant currency. It also expects second-quarter adjusted operating income growth of 7% to 10%. The key takeaway is that fuel costs remain a near-term margin headwind, while Walmart's unchanged guidance reflects its expectation that profitability will improve after the first quarter. How KR & COST Are Managing Margin Pressure The Kroger Co. KR saw transportation costs weigh on margins in the first quarter of 2026. KR's gross margin declined 30 basis points year over year to 22.7%, primarily due to the mix impact of higher fuel sales, increased transportation costs, egg deflation and planned price investments. Excluding fuel, rent, depreciation, amortization and adjustment items, Kroger's FIFO gross margin rate decreased 9 basis points, with higher transportation costs contributing 15 basis points of pressure. Costco Wholesale Corporation COST faced fuel-related margin pressure in the third quarter of fiscal 2026. COST's reported gross margin rate declined 21 basis points year over year to 11.04%, reflecting sales-mix changes and a lower gas margin rate, among other factors. Higher gasoline prices also increased transportation costs. Excluding gas inflation, Costco's gross margin rate improved one basis point, showing that fuel-price inflation had a meaningful effect on the reported margin comparison. Story Continues WMT Stock Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates Shares of Walmart have risen 7.9% over the past year compared with the industry's growth of 5.3%. WMT Price Performance Versus IndustryZacks Investment Research Image Source: Zacks Investment Research From a valuation standpoint, WMT trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 36.22, higher than the industry's average of 32.85. WMT Valuation Compared to IndustryZacks Investment Research Image Source: Zacks Investment Research The Zacks Consensus Estimate for WMT's current and next fiscal year earnings per share implies year-over-year growth of 9.5% and 13.1%, respectively. Walmart currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Walmart Inc. (WMT) : Free Stock Analysis Report The Kroger Co. (KR) : Free Stock Analysis Report Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com). Zacks Investment Research View Comments

Quick Read XRP has fallen 42% to $1.07 in 2026 and needs a 73% rebound in five months to end the year at the $1.85 price it started at. The Fed has to start cutting rates before crypto money comes back, and that means inflation falling from 4.1%. The CLARITY Act has to pass, but the Senate has not brought it to the floor and Polymarket now gives the bill a 14% chance of passing this year. Two retirees, same $1 million, same 4% rule, buy one finished with $1.4 million, the other hit $0 in 12 years. Our free reader guide explains the flaw that separated them, and the income-first method built to avoid it. Ripple's native cryptocurrency, XRP (CRYPTO:XRP), started the year trading around $1.85 and hovers near $1.07 today after dropping over 42% in seven months. The XRP price would have to climb 73% in the next five months just to finish 2026 where it started. That is well short of the $2 and $3 targets that many forecasted the coin would hit heading into the year, and it is still a big move to ask for in five months. So what would have to happen for the XRP price to get back to break-even by December?insta_photos / Shutterstock.com Why XRP Cannot Recover Until the Crypto Market DoesA HIP A HUB STOCK / Shutterstock.com Ripple has given XRP holders plenty to be excited about this year. The company bought its way deeper into institutional finance, the XRP Ledger picked up new upgrades, and the spot ETFs brought in fresh money. But none of it has moved the XRP price, because XRP and the rest of the crypto market have been under bearish pressure. The pressure started on February 28, when the U.S. and Israel launched a war against Iran. The Strait of Hormuz closed soon after, cutting off the route for about a fifth of the world's oil trade, and gasoline went above $4 a gallon. The 4% Rule is Broken, Built On A World That No Longer Exists Every retiree knows about the 4% rule, but it frames retirement as a slow liquidation and still causes retirees with seven-figure accounts to agonize over a dinner out. There's a different way to run the math that makes more sense today. Build an income floor — dividends, interest, and Social Security that cover your essential bills every month — and you never have to sell shares into a down market just to pay them. Our free reader guide, The 4% Rule Is Broken, walks through it in about 15 minutes. Access the report here. Then U.S. inflation climbed from 2.4% in February to 4.1% by June. Rate cuts were the fuel behind crypto's 2025 rally, and the Fed under Kevin Warsh has since gone from cutting rates to penciling in a hike before the end of the year. So the money that would have gone into crypto has gone into cash and AI stocks instead. Story Continues Oil prices have already started falling, and Trump said on August 3 that he expects talks with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. That would put oil supply back on the market and let inflation cool, which would give the Fed room to cut rates again instead of raising them, and lower rates make crypto far more attractive to investors. Market sentiment would improve from there, and Bitcoin could start rallying again. When Bitcoin rallies, it pulls the rest of the crypto market up with it, and XRP would ride that wave higher. The CLARITY Act Is the Catalyst XRP Is Still Waiting OnMaksim Safaniuk / Shutterstock.com The SEC and CFTC jointly classified XRP as a digital commodity on March 17, settling years of legal doubt about what XRP is. However, regulators can withdraw an interpretation whenever they choose, and the next administration could do exactly that. The CLARITY Act would put the same classification into federal law and hand oversight to the CFTC, which is the permanence banks need before they build anything on XRP. Wall Street has built its XRP numbers on this getting settled. JPMorgan backed the bill publicly on July 1, describing clearer rules as removing one of the biggest obstacles to institutional participation in crypto, and the bank's own forecast has spot XRP ETFs pulling in $4 billion to $8.4 billion in their first year once that clarity arrives. Standard Chartered built a price roadmap on the same inflow range and forecast XRP could reach $12.50 by 2028. The bill has been on the Senate calendar since June 1 without reaching the floor. Today is the last day leadership can file a cloture motion—the step that clears the way for a floor vote—and still get the vote before Friday. But no motion has been filed on the bill. Senators leave for recess on August 10 and return on September 14 to a calendar already crowded with funding fights. Polymarket traders now give the CLARITY Act a 14% chance of becoming law in 2026, down from above 80% in February. XRP ETF Inflows Have to Come BackTapati Rinchumrus / Shutterstock.com XRP ETFs pulled in $666.61 million in their first month after launching in November, and another $499.91 million in December. Those two months alone account for 77% of all the money the funds have taken in across nine months of trading. However, the buying has faded for most of 2026. The strongest month this year was May, when investors put in $131.94 million while the CLARITY Act was moving through committee, and by the end of July inflows had dropped to $27.29 million. Investors have added $1.51 billion to the funds since launch, but those holdings are worth just under $1 billion today, because XRP has lost so much of its value since that money went in. Standard Chartered expected those funds to take in $4 billion to $8 billion in their first year of trading, and the bank built its XRP price forecasts on that money arriving. But nine months in, the funds have gathered only $1.51 billion, which is far below expectations. The funds currently hold 992.5 million XRP that nobody can sell while investors keep their shares. For the XRP price to rally back to the level it was at the start of the year, monthly ETF inflows have to reach $300 million, as that is what signals

Moneywise and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue through links in the content below. President Donald Trump has long portrayed himself as a champion of free markets, domestic energy production and corporate America. But after some of the country's largest oil companies reported massive profits while drivers continued paying more than $4 a gallon for gas, Trump decided they had gone too far. Must Read Jeff Bezos backs a platform that lets anyone invest in rental homes for as little as $100 — 6 ways to build wealth like a landlord without actually being one JPMorgan still sees gold hitting $5,000/oz by Q4 — and savvy investors are protecting their wealth with a tax-advantaged Gold IRA. Learn more with a free guide from Priority Gold The tax breaks in Trump's 'big beautiful bill' expire after 2028 — and experts say most people won't act in time. What to do before the window closes "Based on a shortage, they're making too much money. I don't like it, and I should be the last one to say because I'm a big free enterprise guy — nobody bigger," Trump told reporters (1) in the Oval Office. He specifically called out two of America's biggest oil producers. "Chevron, too much money. Exxon Mobil, too much, too much money," he said. Exxon Mobil reported $14.5 billion (2) in profit for the second quarter, more than double the $7.1 billion it earned during the same period a year earlier. Chevron brought in roughly $12.1 billion (3), up from about $2.5 billion one year ago. Trump argued that oil producers should pass some of that windfall back to consumers. "They ought to give some of that back to the public, and they better cut the retail price, the consumer price," he said, before hammering home the point once again. "Too much money — you're surprised I'm saying it? I'll say it loud and clear, I'm not happy about it." Americans feel the squeeze — but is Big Oil really the bad guy? For oil companies, higher crude prices can translate into billions of dollars in additional profits. For ordinary Americans, they can mean a painful trip to the gas station. The national average price of regular gasoline stood at $4.09 a gallon in early August, compared with about $3.15 a year earlier, according to AAA (4). Diesel now averages more than $5.37 a gallon, compared with $3.73 one year ago. But enormous profits do not necessarily prove that oil companies deliberately inflated prices. Andrea Woods, a spokesperson for the American Petroleum Institute, which represents the nation's oil and gas companies, said (5) that higher prices are "driven by global supply, demand and continued uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz and other critical shipping lanes — not by any one company." Story Continues The Iran conflict has indeed disrupted the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important energy routes. Roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply normally passes through the waterway (6), so restricting that flow created a sudden shortage and sent crude prices soaring. Woods added that the oil industry shares Trump's goal of "delivering affordable, reliable energy for consumers." And while Trump says prices will "drop through the floor" once the Iran conflict ends, the current squeeze stems from a war launched under his own administration. That makes his decision to direct the public's anger toward oil companies all the more striking. No matter who deserves the blame, one thing is certain: Prices have been rising, and gasoline is far from the only expense stretching household budgets. Since the beginning of 2020, the CPI food index has risen 34% (7), while the energy index has climbed 45% (8). Look further back, and you'll see that inflation has been steadily chipping away at the value of Americans' hard-earned dollars for decades. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis (9), $100 in 2026 has the same purchasing power as just $11.74 did in 1970. That's right. $100 became less than $12. The good news? Savvy investors have long found ways to shield their wealth from inflation's bite — no matter what shock the world throws at them or who's in the White House. Read More: Millionaires under 43 hold only 25% of their wealth in stocks. Here's where their money is actually going Own an asset governments cannot print When it comes to preserving wealth and fighting inflation, few assets have stood the test of time like gold. Its appeal is simple: unlike fiat currencies, the yellow metal can't be printed at will by central banks. Gold is also considered the ultimate safe haven. It's not tied to any one country, currency or economy, and in times of economic turmoil or geopolitical uncertainty, investors often flock to it — driving prices higher. Ray Dalio, founder of the world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, has repeatedly highlighted gold's role in a resilient portfolio. "People don't have, typically, an adequate amount of gold in their portfolio," Dalio told CNBC last year. "When bad times come, gold is a very effective diversifier." Over the past five years, as inflation continued to chip away at the purchasing power of the dollar, gold has climbed 123%. Other prominent voices see further potential. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has said that in this environment, gold can "easily" rise to $10,000 an ounce. One way to invest in gold that can also provide significant tax advantages is to open a gold IRA with the help of Goldco. Gold IRAs allow investors to hold physical gold or gold-related assets within a retirement account, thereby combining the tax advantages of an IRA with the protective benefits of investing in gold, making it a compelling potential option for those wanting to ensure their retirement funds are diversified during rough economic times. Goldco offers free shipping and access to a library of retirement resources. Plus, the company will match up to 10% of qualified purchases in free silver. If you're curious wheth

By Robert Harvey LONDON, Aug 5 (Reuters) - Glencore earned 66 times more from energy trading in the first half of ‌2026 than it did a year earlier, joining other ‌major commodity traders profiting from market turmoil created by the Iran war. Glencore booked $2.66 billion ​in first-half adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) from trading on Wednesday, up from just $40 million a year earlier. U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday accused oil majors ExxonMobil and Chevron of making "too much ‌money" with high gasoline ⁠prices a risk for his Republican Party as it seeks to retain control of Congress in November ⁠midterm elections. Glencore joins the trading desks of European oil majors BP, Shell, TotalEnergies and rival trading house Trafigura in reaping billions in profits ​this year. Trafigura ​reported $4.1 billion in net profit for ​the six months through March. Crude, ‌fuel and LNG prices hit all-time record or multi-year highs earlier this year as the Iran war effectively halted tanker traffic leaving the Gulf. "The Oil and Gas department was the primary contributor, which benefited from significant dislocations across LNG, oil and shipping markets," ‌Glencore CEO Gary Nagle said. Its first-half results ​put it on track to rebound ​from three straight years ​of lower earnings from energy marketing. Its trading volumes surged ‌to around 5.2 million barrels ​per day of ​crude and fuels, about 24% more than its 2025 average, Glencore's results showed on Wednesday. Looking ahead to the second half, ​Glencore said that significant ‌inventory drawdowns had left oil markets increasingly sensitive to ​disruptions. Glencore shares were up 3.4% at 1130 GMT. (Reporting by ​Robert Harvey; editing by Jason Neely) View Comments

By Robert Harvey LONDON, Aug 5 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Wednesday after Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi rebels said they attacked a Saudi oil tanker in ‌the Red Sea, denting hopes of a de-escalation in Iran war hostilities that ‌could restore shipping traffic and oil flows in the Middle East. Brent crude futures were up $1.51, or 1.9%, ​at $80.87 a barrel by 1123 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures gained 90 cents, or 1.19%, to $76.67. The Houthis said they had launched a missile attack on a Saudi oil tanker off the coast of Yanbu, a key port for Saudi crude oil exports. That ‌drove oil prices higher on ⁠Wednesday, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. Saudi officials did not respond immediately to a request for comment. The reports of the attack dented ⁠investor hopes of a de-escalation in the Middle East conflict after Qatar said on Tuesday that mediators were making progress with efforts to end the war. That drove down oil prices ​by ​5% on Tuesday, with Brent closing below $80 a ​barrel for the first time since ‌July 13. Tehran, meanwhile, denied that peace talks were under way, contrary to assertions by U.S. President Donald Trump. "While the immediate geopolitical premium has unwound, the broader supply picture warrants caution," said Priyanka Sachdeva, head of market insights at Phillip Nova. Before the war started, about 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas passed through the ‌Strait of Hormuz. "The main sticking point appears to ​be whether Iran will continue to insist on a ​degree of control over the waterway, ​and whether the U.S. will stand its ground and refuse that ‌outcome," IG analysts said in a ​note. U.S. crude and gasoline ​inventories rose while distillate stocks fell last week, market sources said on Tuesday, citing data from the American Petroleum Institute. Crude stocks rose by about 2.7 million ​barrels in the week to ‌July 31, the sources said. Elsewhere, China further relaxed controls on fuel exports ​in August. (Reporting by Robert Harvey in London, Helen Clark in Perth and ​Jeslyn Lerh in SingaporeEditing by David Goodman) View Comments

Quick Read The Iran conflict caused the largest oil supply shock in history, cutting global production by 13.6 million barrels per day and rapidly draining inventories. Diamondback Energy posted $5.56 billion in revenue and $2.33 billion in free cash flow, beating Wall Street estimates and raising full-year production guidance. CEO Kaes Van't Hof argues rebuilding depleted global inventories has structurally raised the oil price floor, keeping gasoline above $4 and complicating Fed rate cuts. Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Diamondback Energy didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today. For much of the past decade, investors treated oil price spikes as temporary disruptions that eventually faded. That assumption is becoming harder to defend. The Iran war has fundamentally changed the balance between global supply and demand, and the world's oil market is still struggling to recover. Justin Sullivan / Getty Images Before hostilities erupted, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded near $65 per barrel while Brent crude hovered around $70. Both briefly surged above $100 after the Strait of Hormuz was effectively shut down, and although prices have eased from those peaks, WTI and Brent remain above $80 today. Diamondback Energy's (NASDAQ:FANG) latest earnings report suggests that elevated prices may no longer be the exception -- they could become the baseline. Diamondback's Results Tell the Story Diamondback Energy delivered one of the strongest earnings reports in the energy sector, according to its quarterly earnings release. Revenue climbed to $5.56 billion, beating the $4.81 billion Wall Street consensus and rising from $3.68 billion a year earlier. Adjusted earnings reached $6.48 per share, ahead of the $6.01 analysts expected. The numbers extended well beyond the income statement. Metric Q2 2026 Revenue $5.56 billion Adjusted EPS $6.48 Free Cash Flow $2.33 billion Production 1.018 million BOE/d Oil Production 525 MBO/d Management also raised full-year production guidance while forecasting 517,000 to 527,000 barrels of oil per day during the third quarter. Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Diamondback Energy didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today. Diamondback isn't benefiting from a temporary windfall alone. It is generating enough cash to expand production while returning capital to shareholders, illustrating how higher commodity prices quickly translate into stronger financial results for efficient producers. Story Continues 24/7 Wall St. Think high gas prices are just a phase? Think again. A permanent supply shock has rewritten the global market, turning massive producer profits into a long-term tax on your wallet. © 24/7 Wall St. Management Thinks Oil Has Changed Permanently The more important message came in CEO Kaes Van't Hof's shareholder letter. He called the Iran conflict "the largest supply shock in the history of the global oil market." According to Diamondback, global production fell by 13.6 million barrels per day, while worldwide inventories declined by an estimated 3.8 million barrels per day after the conflict began, accelerating to roughly 4.6 million barrels per day in May. Although exports through the region are recovering in stages, Van't Hof argued that the market has fundamentally changed. "These draws will eventually have to reverse, and we believe the restocking required to rebuild global inventories has structurally raised the floor for oil prices compared to pre-conflict prices." That is an important distinction. Inventories don't replenish overnight. Even if geopolitical tensions ease tomorrow, producers must rebuild depleted stockpiles before supply catches demand. That creates persistent buying pressure that supports higher oil prices. Ironically, Saudi Aramco warned early in the conflict that unless shipping disruptions ended quickly, the consequences would prove lasting. Diamondback's latest assessment suggests exactly that scenario is unfolding. The Inflation Problem Isn't Going Away For producers like Diamondback, Chevron (NYSE:CVX), and ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), stronger crude prices generally expand profits and free cash flow. For consumers, however, gasoline prices above $4 per gallon continue squeezing household budgets and remain one of inflation's largest contributors. President Trump criticized Chevron, ExxonMobil, and other producers yesterday over gasoline prices, seemingly absolving himself of any responsibility and ignoring that integrated oil companies have little influence over prices set at the pump. Oil companies simply sell into the market they are given. That has broader implications for investors. If energy inflation remains elevated, the Federal Reserve may find it harder to declare victory over inflation. Diamondback's comments point toward sustained upward pressure on prices, increasing the possibility that interest rates rise sooner than markets currently expect. Key Takeaway In short, Diamondback's quarterly results were impressive, but its outlook may matter even more. The company's earnings release and shareholder letter argue that the Iran conflict didn't simply create a temporary spike in oil prices -- it permanently raised the market's starting point by draining global inventories that now must be rebuilt. Granted, peace negotiations could eventually restore more supply. Regardless, rebuilding millions of barrels of depleted inventories will take time, supporting crude prices well above pre-war levels. For investors, that favors efficient energy producers like Diamondback. For consumers, it suggests expensive gasoline -- and the inflation pressure that comes with it -- may be the new normal. Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Diamondback Energy didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today. Contact editorial@247wallst.com for any questi

Wall Street delivered mixed results in July. The Dow posted a modest monthly gain, marking its fourth consecutive positive month, per CNBC. The S&P 500 ended little changed for July, while the Nasdaq recorded a notable monthly decline as investors rotated away from high-growth technology stocks amid rising bond yields. The tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 slumped 3.6% over the past month (as of July 31, 2026). Rising Oil Prices Add to Inflation Worries Energy markets remained under pressure after renewed geopolitical tensions disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Higher oil and gasoline prices have reignited concerns about inflation and consumer spending, even as the latest University of Michigan survey showed improving consumer sentiment. United States Brent Oil Fund LP BNO has jumped about 27.8% over the past month (as of July 31, 2026). Treasury Yields Surge on Fed Uncertainty Treasury yields climbed sharply following the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged at the month-end meeting without offering clear forward guidance. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closed the month at 4.75%, its highest level since January 2025 (per CNBC), while the 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.27%, the highest since 2007. Investors grew increasingly concerned that elevated borrowing costs could pressure equity valuations (read: Fed Holds Rates Steady, May Hike Ahead: ETFs in Focus). Semiconductor Stocks Suffer Worst Month Since 2008 The semiconductor industry remained one of the market's weakest areas despite Friday's rebound, per the same CNBC source. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF SMH remained down nearly 17% for July, putting the fund on track for its worst monthly performance since the 2008 financial crisis as investors reassessed AI-related valuations and the impact of higher interest rates. AI Spending Keeps Tech Momentum Intact Strong earnings from Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) reassured investors that AI investment remains robust. Amazon jumped 15% on July 31 on strong cloud growth, while Microsoft extended gains after upbeat Azure results. MSFT and AMZN are up about 21% and 12.4% over the past month (as of July 31, 2026). Together with Meta (down 9.2% past month) and Alphabet (down 0.4% past month), the hyperscalers now expect to spend $720-$745 billion on capital projects in 2026, easing concerns over an AI spending slowdown, per CNBC. Apple Lags Despite Strong Sales Not all Big Tech names participated in the rally in July. Apple fell more than 7% as weaker Services and China revenues offset solid iPhone sales, while Meta also ended the week lower (read: ETFs to Watch as META Sinks Post Q2 Earnings Miss, Poor Cash Position). Story Continues Top-Performing ETF Areas of July Against the above-mentioned backdrop, below we highlight a few winning ETFs of July. Shipping & Oil – Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF BWET – Up 74.2% The Middle East conflict and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted key shipping routes, driving a sharp surge in freight rates. This has strengthened the investment case for BWET. The fund's expense ratio is 3.50%. Oil ETFs like BNO and DBO also surged in July in the Hormuz context. Rate-Related Niche ETFs – Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF (PFIX) – Up 26.0% There are some niche ETFs that guard against rising rates. PFIX is such an option. The ETF PFIX looks to hedge interest rate movements arising from rising long-term interest rates and to benefit from market stress when fixed-income volatility increases. The fund yields 8.06% annually and charges 50 bps in fees. China Tech – Roundhill China Magnificent Seven ETF MAGC – Up 22.5% While the fund has a very small asset base of about $14.0 million despite making a debut in October 2024, this fund's price surged in July as Chinese AI companies came up with the success of low-cost AI models. KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF KWEB, with an asset base of $5.5 billion, also added 13.4% over the past month. The country's Moonshot AI unveiled Kimi K3 on July 16, the largest open-source AI model released so far, per Fortune, as quoted on Yahoo Finance.   The company says K3 delivers performance close to Anthropic's Fable 5 at a much lower cost (read: Moonshot AI Raises the Stakes for Big Tech? ETFs in Focus). Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): ETF Research Reports United States Brent Oil ETF (BNO): ETF Research Reports KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB): ETF Research Reports This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com). Zacks Investment Research View Comments

Wall Street delivered mixed results in July. The Dow posted a modest monthly gain, marking its fourth consecutive positive month, per CNBC. The S&P 500 ended little changed for July, while the Nasdaq recorded a notable monthly decline as investors rotated away from high-growth technology stocks amid rising bond yields. The tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 slumped 3.6% over the past month (as of July 31, 2026). Rising Oil Prices Add to Inflation Worries Energy markets remained under pressure after renewed geopolitical tensions disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Higher oil and gasoline prices have reignited concerns about inflation and consumer spending, even as the latest University of Michigan survey showed improving consumer sentiment. United States Brent Oil Fund LP BNO has jumped about 27.8% over the past one month (as of July 31, 2026). Treasury Yields Surge on Fed Uncertainty Treasury yields climbed sharply following the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged at its month-end meeting without offering clear forward guidance. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closed the month at 4.75%, its highest level since January 2025 (per CNBC), while the 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.27%, the highest since 2007. Investors grew increasingly concerned that elevated borrowing costs could pressure equity valuations (read: Fed Holds Rates Steady, May Hike Ahead: ETFs in Focus). Semiconductor Stocks Suffer Worst Month Since 2008 The semiconductor industry remained one of the market's weakest areas despite Friday's rebound, per the same CNBC source. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF SMH remained down nearly 17% for July, putting the fund on track for its worst monthly performance since the 2008 financial crisis as investors reassessed AI-related valuations and the impact of higher interest rates. AI Spending Keeps Tech Momentum Intact Strong earnings from Amazon AMZN and Microsoft MSFT reassured investors that AI investment remains robust. Amazon jumped 15% on July 31 on strong cloud growth, while Microsoft extended gains after upbeat Azure results. MSFT and AMZN are up about 21% and 12.4% over the past one month (as of July 31, 2026). Together with Meta (down 9.2% past month) and Alphabet (down 0.4% past month the hyperscalers now expect to spend $720 billion-$745 billion on capital projects in 2026, easing concerns over an AI spending slowdown, per CNBC. Apple Lags Despite Strong Sales Not all Big Tech names participated in the rally in July. Apple fell more than 7% as weaker Services and China revenue offset solid iPhone sales, while Meta also ended the month lower (read: ETFs to Watch as META Sinks Post Q2 Earnings Miss, Poor Cash Position). Story Continues Best-Performing Leveraged ETFs of July in Focus Against this backdrop, below we highlight the top-performing leveraged ETFs of July. Inverse SpaceX – Tradr 2X Short SpaceX Daily ETF SPCG – Up 108.8% Space Exploration Technologies Corp SPCX has lost about 30% over the past month (as of July 31, 2026). On July 16, SpaceX's Starship rocket triggered a last-second abort before the liftoff of its 13th flight test from Texas, which weighed on the stock. The stock whipsawed last week, swinging from an all-time low to a sharp rebound before closing at a new low. SpaceX stock has shed about 30% from its $150 market debut last month and remains down roughly 50% from its all-time high of $225.64, per Yahoo Finance. GraniteShares 2x Short SpaceX Daily ETF SNK, Leverage Shares 2X Short SPCX Daily ETF SSPC and Defiance Daily Target 2X Short SpaceX ETF SPCQ too lost about 100% each over the past month. Inverse IONQ – Defiance Daily Target 2x Short IONQ ETF IONZ – Up 68.5% IONQ Inc. IONQ has lost about 29.1% over the past month. Risk aversion toward high-growth technology stocks and IONQ's rich valuation weighed on the stock in July. Leveraged PayPal – Direxion Daily PYPL Bull 2X ETF PYPU – Up 53.1% PayPal PYPL surged about 25% over the past month over the acquisition news.  In mid-July, Stripe and private equity firm Advent International have jointly offered to acquire PayPal in a deal valued at more than $53 billion, according to Reuters, as quoted on Yahoo Finance. The proposal marks one of the biggest potential transactions in the digital payments industry in recent years (read: Stripe, Advent to Buy PayPal in a $53B Deal? ETFs in Focus). Leveraged JD.Com – KraneShares 2x Long JD Daily ETF KJD – Up 50.4% JD.Com Inc JD shares rose 24% over the past month. Chinese AI companies have benefited from the success of low-cost AI models lately, which has boosted sentiment across the Chinese technology sector. The country's Moonshot AI unveiled Kimi K3 on July 16, the largest open-source AI model released so far, per Fortune, as quoted on Yahoo Finance. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) : Free Stock Analysis Report Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) : Free Stock Analysis Report VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): ETF Research Reports JD.com, Inc. (JD) : Free Stock Analysis Report PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) : Free Stock Analysis Report United States Brent Oil ETF (BNO): ETF Research Reports Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) : Free Stock Analysis Report IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com). Zacks Investment Research View Comments

Somnigroup International Inc. SGI is slated to report second-quarter 2026 results on Aug. 6, 2026, before market open. The company is likely to report bottom and top-line growth when it posts the quarterly results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company's earnings is pegged at 58 cents per share, which indicates an increase of 9.4% from the year-ago quarter's reported figure. The consensus mark has risen a penny in the past 30 days. For second-quarter revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $1.9 billion, indicating a 0.5% rise from the year-ago quarter's reported figure. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 3.5%. Its earnings outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.8%, on average, in the trailing four quarters. Key Factors to Note For SGI's Q2 Somnigroup's quarterly performance is expected to have benefited from growth in premium and innovation-led products, expanding direct-to-consumer sales, market share gains and higher sales of sleep accessories. The company is focused on strengthening its vertically integrated business model by combining manufacturing, wholesale distribution, direct-to-consumer retail and e-commerce operations. This integrated approach enables the company to better manage its supply chain, improve inventory efficiency, enhance customer service and support profitability. The company continues to drive growth through product innovation, introducing premium mattresses, smart sleep technologies and complementary sleep accessories that differentiate its brands and encourage consumers to trade up to higher-value products. Somnigroup is expanding its direct-to-consumer business by investing in its retail store network, digital platforms and omnichannel capabilities. The company is investing in marketing and brand-building initiatives to increase consumer awareness, drive store and online traffic, and reinforce the strength of its portfolio of sleep brands. SGI is improving manufacturing efficiency, optimizing sourcing and logistics, and implementing productivity initiatives to offset inflationary pressures, enhance margins and support earnings growth. All these strategic initiatives, coupled with international momentum, have further diversified the business through product launches, distribution and effective omnichannel execution, and are likely to have boosted the company's performance during the quarter under review. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Tempur Sealy International net sales is currently pegged at $311 million, indicating year-over-year growth of 5.8%. On the flip side, commodity inflation and sluggish global bedding demand remain deterrents for Somnigroup. Commodity inflation remains a key headwind as rising costs for oil-derived inputs, including key chemicals, gasoline and diesel, continue to pressure profitability. The company is facing higher expenses for essential raw materials, including chemicals, purchased foam, diesel and gasoline, primarily due to geopolitical disruptions that have affected energy markets. Story Continues Somnigroup International Inc. Price and EPS Surprise Somnigroup International Inc. price-eps-surprise | Somnigroup International Inc. Quote What the Zacks Model Unveils for SGI Our proven model conclusively predicts an earnings beat for Somnigroup this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chance of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter. Somnigroup currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.02% and a Zacks Rank of 3. Valuation & Price Performance Somnigroup has a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 18.13X compared with its five-year high of 33.14X and the Retail - Home Furnishings industry's average of 19.2X. The recent market movements show that SGI's shares have lost 10.6% in the past three months compared with the industry's 3.4% growth. More Stocks With The Favorable Combination Here are a few more companies, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to come up with an earnings beat this reporting cycle: Williams-Sonoma, Inc. WSM has an Earnings ESP of +3.38% and a Zacks Rank of 2. WSM is likely to register a top and bottom-line increase when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2026 numbers. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly EPS of $2.04 suggests an increase of 2% from the year-ago fiscal quarter's reported number. The consensus estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.9 billion, suggesting growth of 4.1% from the prior-year fiscal quarter's reported figure. WSM has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.2%, on average. Designer Brands Inc. DBI currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.03% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The company is expected to register a top-line increase when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2026 results. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $743 million, indicating a rise of 0.4% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly EPS of 25 cents suggests a drop of 26.5% from the year-ago quarter. DBI has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 112.8%, on average. American Eagle Outfitters AEO currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.23% and a Zacks Rank of 2. AEO is likely to register a top-line increase when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2026 numbers. The consensus estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.4 billion, suggesting growth of 6.5% from the prior-year fiscal quarter's reported figure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly EPS of 21 cents suggests a decrease of 53.3% from the year-ago fiscal quarter's reported number. AEO has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 48.5%, on average. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download

Quick Read Gas prices jumped from $2.98 to $4.10 per gallon after Trump's Iran military strike briefly sent crude above $100 per barrel. Fewer than 5% of U.S. gas stations are owned by major oil companies, meaning Chevron cannot dictate retail pump prices. Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty from Trump's repeated threats to resume Iran strikes keeps a risk premium baked into oil prices. Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Chevron didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today. High energy prices have become one of the biggest inflation stories of 2026. According to AAA, the national average price for regular gasoline now sits around $4.10 per gallon, up sharply from roughly $2.98 before the Iran conflict erupted earlier this year. Alex Wong / Getty Images News via Getty Images Every trip to the pump reminds consumers how quickly geopolitical events can ripple through household budgets. For investors, it also highlights an important lesson: commodity markets don't respond to political demands. Oil prices are set globally, retail gasoline prices are set locally, and neither changes because a president posts on social media. Oil Companies Aren't the Ones Setting Pump Prices President Trump took aim at Chevron (NYSE:CVX) this morning after CEO Mike Wirth appeared on Fox Business with Maria Bartiromo discussing the company's strong performance. In a Truth Social post, Trump argued Chevron's success was only possible because of his administration's actions in Venezuela, including reopening the country's oil industry to U.S. companies after Nicolas Maduro's removal. He then demanded Chevron and other producers "get your consumer (retail!) Oil Prices DOWN, NOW!" That criticism misses how gasoline pricing actually works. Contrary to popular belief, Chevron, ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), Shell (NYSE:SHEL), and other integrated oil companies rarely determine the price consumers see on station signs. According to the American Petroleum Institute, fewer than 5% of U.S. gas stations are owned directly by major oil companies. Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Chevron didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today. Retail stations are largely price takers rather than price makers. Owners price fuel based on what it will cost to replace the next shipment, local competitors' prices, labor costs, rent, credit card fees, taxes, and margins that are often just pennies per gallon. Many convenience stores earn more profit selling coffee and snacks than gasoline itself. Story Continues Chevron can influence wholesale fuel costs through its refining business. It cannot simply order independently owned stations across America to slash prices. 24/7 Wall St. Think Big Oil sets the price at your local pump? Think again—the real forces driving your $4.10 gallon are far beyond any CEO's or President's control. © 24/7 Wall St. Trump's Own Policies Have Been a Bigger Driver The biggest move in gasoline prices this year followed Trump's military action against Iran at the end of February. Oil markets immediately priced in the possibility of supply disruptions throughout the Middle East, sending both West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude above $100 per barrel before easing. Although WTI has since fallen below $80 per barrel and Brent has retreated to roughly $83 after Trump again delayed retaliatory strikes against Iran, crude remains well above where it traded when his administration negotiated a temporary truce with Tehran. Markets continue to build a geopolitical risk premium into oil prices because Trump's repeated threats to resume military action create uncertainty over future supply. That uncertainty -- not Chevron's earnings call -- is what has kept gasoline prices elevated. The merits of Trump's foreign policy can certainly be debated. Investors understand that protecting strategic interests sometimes carries economic costs. But assigning responsibility for higher gasoline prices to oil companies ignores how commodity markets function. Investors Should Focus on the Real Drivers Ironically, Chevron is benefiting from stronger crude prices that largely reflect geopolitical developments beyond its control. That's exactly what integrated energy companies are designed to do. Higher oil prices typically expand upstream profits, even if refining margins fluctuate. For investors, the more important variables remain global supply, OPEC+ production decisions, U.S. shale output, refinery utilization, and geopolitical tensions -- not presidential demands directed at corporate executives. When oil prices rise, retail gasoline follows. When crude falls for a sustained period, wholesale prices decline, and competition gradually pushes pump prices lower. No social media post changes that equation. Key Takeaway In short, Trump's criticism of Chevron shifts attention away from the biggest factor behind today's gasoline prices. The jump from roughly $2.98 per gallon before the Iran conflict to more than $4 today largely reflects higher crude oil prices driven by geopolitical risk, not decisions made by Chevron or ExxonMobil. Investors should separate political messaging from market mechanics. Energy stocks will continue to rise and fall with global oil fundamentals, while consumers will keep paying prices determined primarily by wholesale markets and local station owners -- not by directives from Washington. Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Chevron didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today. Contact editorial@247wallst.com for any questions or corrections. View Comments

[Oil pumpjacks at sunset with financial charts overlay.] peshkov * Crude prices dropped by more than $5 a barrel on Monday as U.S. President Donald Trump refrained from launching new attacks on Iran, aiming instead for a rapid deal to curb Tehran's nuclear ambitions and restore passage through the Strait of Hormuz. * Brent crude futures (CO1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CO1:COM]) slid $4.5, or 5.12%, to $83.43 at press time, while U.S. ​West Texas Intermediate crude (CL1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CL1:COM]) was at $79.68 a barrel, down $5.05, or 6%. Both contracts jumped ⁠more than 20% last month after fighting between the U.S. and Iran resumed and ​as attacks on several tankers around Oman increased security concerns. * President Donald Trump told reporters Sunday that the U.S. will engage in talks with Iran starting Monday afternoon. Trump said he had been prepared to launch the biggest military attack since World War II but had been talked down by U.S. allies. * Additionally on Sunday, OPEC+ approved an ​oil production ⁠quota increase of around 188,000 barrels per day from September, the producer group said. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE OIL MARKET: The oil market is becoming increasingly dependent on inventories and strategic stockpiles to offset disruptions across Middle East supply chains, ANZ analysts said. Risks are now extending beyond the Strait of Hormuz to Saudi Arabia's key Red Sea export corridor, raising concerns over the reliability of alternative trade routes. At the same time, accelerating gasoline inventory drawdowns signal that product market balances are tightening. "These trends are supporting stronger crude time spreads, elevated refining margins and firmer prices, leaving the market vulnerable to further upside pressure should disruptions intensify." MORE ON ENERGY, ETC. * Tech Stocks Mixed As Tech Investors Take Profits [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4928788-tech-stocks-mixed-tech-investors-take-profits] * Commodities: Oil Slips As More Crude Flows Out Of Persian Gulf [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4928404-commodities-oil-slips-more-crude-flows-out-of-persian-gulf] * WTI Consolidates After Geopolitical Rally As Inventory Draw Strengthens Supply Outlook [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4927860-wti-consolidates-after-geopolitical-rally-as-inventory-draw-strengthens-supply-outlook] * OPEC+ completes planned output hike, eyes bigger supply increase after Iran conflict [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4623134-opec-completes-planned-output-hike-eyes-bigger-supply-increase-after-iran-conflict] * Trump claims Iran deal is near, but Tehran rejects his account [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4623132-trump-claims-iran-deal-is-near-but-tehran-rejects-his-account]

[Entrance signage to the headquarters of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in Vienna] todamo OPEC+ approved another modest increase in oil production quotas on Sunday, completing its planned rollback of 2023 supply cuts while preserving the option to pump significantly more crude if the conflict in the Middle East eases. For investors, the decision suggests OPEC+ remains focused on balancing high prices caused by regional instability with the possibility of a future supply surplus. If tensions around the Strait of Hormuz subside, Saudi Arabia could boost production further, potentially easing inflationary pressure and weighing on oil prices. The producer group, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, agreed to raise collective output targets by 188,000 barrels per day in September. The increase is largely symbolic because many members lack the capacity to produce up to their quotas after years of underinvestment, sanctions or conflict. The latest increase completes the scheduled unwinding of production cuts introduced in 2023 to support oil prices. However, delegates have indicated quotas are expected to remain unchanged for the rest of the year unless market conditions shift. The decision comes as the Middle East remains volatile. Oil exports have been disrupted by the conflict involving Iran, while attacks linked to Iran-backed Houthi rebels have threatened shipping routes through the Red Sea. President Donald Trump said over the weekend that the U.S. would delay additional strikes on Iran while diplomatic efforts continue. Should regional tensions ease and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalize, Saudi Arabia could have room to increase production further. Such a move could help replenish depleted global inventories and reverse the supply shortages that have driven up gasoline and diesel prices. Still, not every OPEC+ member is in a position to benefit. Russia continues to produce below its quota amid Western sanctions, while Kazakhstan has faced export disruptions and has repeatedly exceeded its production target. Saudi Arabia retains the overwhelming share of the group's spare production capacity. Looking ahead, OPEC+ will meet again in early September and is awaiting the results of an independent review of members' production capacity. That assessment, due later this year, could influence production quotas for 2027 and shape the group's long-term balance between supporting prices and defending market share. MORE ON BRENT FUTURES, CRUDE OIL FUTURES * Tech Stocks Mixed As Tech Investors Take Profits [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4928788-tech-stocks-mixed-tech-investors-take-profits] * Commodities: Oil Slips As More Crude Flows Out Of Persian Gulf [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4928404-commodities-oil-slips-more-crude-flows-out-of-persian-gulf] * WTI Consolidates After Geopolitical Rally As Inventory Draw Strengthens Supply Outlook [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4927860-wti-consolidates-after-geopolitical-rally-as-inventory-draw-strengthens-supply-outlook] * Trump claims Iran deal is near, but Tehran rejects his account [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4623132-trump-claims-iran-deal-is-near-but-tehran-rejects-his-account] * Odds of Hormuz traffic returning to normal pop as Trump halts strikes [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4623131-odds-of-hormuz-traffic-returning-to-normal-pop-as-trump-halts-strikes]

(Bloomberg) -- High fuel prices are likely to stick around even if oil prices drop in the coming months as the wars in Russia and Middle East leave global refining capacity critically short, ExxonMobil Holdings Corp. and Chevron Corp. warned. Most Read from Bloomberg Singapore's Gated Island for the Rich Is Marred by Decayed Homes Moonshot's Kimi Uses 20,000 Nvidia Chip Cluster From Alibaba Trump Orders Iran Attack as Soon as This Weekend, WSJ Says India's Family Offices Embrace Profit-Sharing to Attract Top Talent Anthropic AI Models Hacked Three Organizations During Tests Gasoline, diesel and jet fuel prices typically rise and fall with crude oil. But that link is growing tenuous because so many refineries have been knocked offline, causing fuel prices to remain stubbornly high and accelerating inflation even as oil falls. "The constraint pain point in the energy system is refining," ExxonMobil Chief Financial Officer Neil Hansen said in an interview. It's "something that perhaps the market isn't fully focused on." Nearly 10% of the world's ability to refine crude oil is effectively offline with the Strait of Hormuz largely closed, continued Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and China's export ban, according to Melius Research. It means the refineries left are running flat out to meet demand, rendering them unable to produce more fuel even if the oil is available for them to process. The result is record-high fuel-making margins that benefit refinery owners but drive up costs for consumers. The trend is evident in the US, where the average price of gasoline has crept up above $4 a gallon to the frustration of drivers and politicians, including President Donald Trump, who has criticized Big Oil in recent weeks for not bringing down costs fast enough. Retail gasoline prices are just 10% below this year's peak in May, even though West Texas Intermediate is down 26% from its 2026 high. Refining "is obviously the bottleneck in the petroleum system right now, and margins are exceptionally high," said Neil Mehta, an analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The real pain point is in middle distillates, which includes diesel, jet fuel and heating oil, according to Chevron CEO Mike Wirth. Retail diesel prices are just 6% below their highs this year even though the drop in WTI has been four times as much. The market is likely to tighten further as countries in the northern hemisphere restock heating oil ahead of winter, Wirth said. "I think we're going to see some upward pressure on product pricing here into the third quarter and perhaps beyond that," he said. Story Continues Gasoline prices are beginning to disconnect from oil prices, instead trading on storage levels, or inventories, according to Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital Advisors LLC. Refined product inventories "are approaching historical lows," he said. "The gasoline price is not as much being represented by the movement in oil prices but more so the movement in inventories." ExxonMobil, which operates the world's biggest refinery network outside of China, sees the trend advancing for the foreseeable future because about 5 million barrels a day of refining capacity is unable to reach the global market. "I've never seen the available capacity relative to demand as low as it is today," ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods said on a call with analysts. "It's going to take a while for the industry to climb its way out of that hole." It's not the first time this year oil industry participants warned about the stark dangers to the energy system. Some analysts said oil could hit $200 a barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remained shut for an extended period, but it never got close to those levels despite the protracted conflict. This time it could be different. ExxonMobil's Gulf Coast refineries ran at a utilization rate of 95% in the second quarter, while Chevron's US facilities ran even harder, at 97%, showing there's little room for error. Shell Plc ran its refineries at 102% in the period but expects this to drop this quarter due to the need for scheduled maintenance. "The geopolitical uncertainty has tightened markets and is reinforcing the importance of reliable supply," Chevron CFO Eimear Bonner said in an interview. "The shock absorbers that have mitigated the volatility up until now, those continue to be drawn down." Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek Tokenmaxxing Is Dead. Now Comes the Belt Tightening Trump's Arctic Mining Deal Signals a New Era of State Capitalism How a Few Hundred Dollars Could Manipulate Election Prediction Markets Why Wall Street Is Getting Angry The Menopause Gold Rush Is Failing Women ©2026 Bloomberg L.P. View Comments

The cool news is that the latest data from the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator came in lower than consensus in June, primarily due to a drop in energy prices. The not-so-cool news? During his second Fed Day as Chairman of the U.S. central bank, Kevin Warsh hemmed and hawed over whether the Personal Consumption Expenditure price index would continue to serve that role. And didn't offer a hint as to what the replacement might be. As I reported, this lack of transparent strategy really ticked off Wall Street -- more than the Federal Open Market Committee's decisive 9-3 vote to hold short-term benchmark interest rates steady July 29. Bonds sold off sharply with the 30-year Treasury hitting 5.22%. Within hours of Warsh's post-meeting press conference, J.P. Morgan abruptly shifted its forecast for the Fed's interest-rate outlook to a hawkish one. The headline on the note?  "Talk is Cheap." J.P. Morgan Chief U.S. Economist Michael Feroli said the Fed would raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December instead of the second half of 2027. The note to clients expects the Fed to continue to hold the Federal Funds Rate at 3.75%-4.00% after the December hike but added that the risk of a September rate increase is real. Feroli's research update said that Warsh's ambiguous signaling raises concerns about the central bank's inflation strategy. "It's hard to know what to make of Warsh's remarks, which involved a lot of well-turned phrases but little in the way of a coherent macro view," Feroli wrote to clients, adding that the new Chairman "once again failed to specify how he intended to achieve his stridently asserted inflation resolve," creating additional policy uncertainty for financial markets. Fed's mandate balances interest rates, jobs and prices The Fed's congressional dual mandate requires full employment and price stability. The FOMC post-meeting statement was a terse five paragraphs that described the economic activity as "expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East.'' It cited the energy shocks that have driven up prices in some sectors. Warsh has repeatedly vowed the Fed would bring inflation down to its 2% target -- a measure it has missed for the last 63 months. He deflected questions from reporters on July 29 as to how this will be achieved with responses that included that there is "no magic wand." (You can read the entire transcript of Warsh's press conference here and watch the video here.) Story Continues "But at what point is he actually going to act?," Yardeni Research President Ed Yardeni told CNBC July 30, adding "What's it going to take?" Here's the tricky part: Lower interest rates support hiring but can fuel inflation. This risks fueling further inflation, potentially leading to an inflationary spiral. Higher rates cool prices but can weaken the job market. This increases the cost of borrowing and further stifles economic activity. Fed holds interest rates steady thus far this year The rate-setting FOMC voted unanimously in June to hold its benchmark Federal Funds Rate target in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. But the minutes of the June FOMC meeting showed policymakers splitting their views on inflation risk and the impact on interest rates with a rising hawkish tinge to the quarterly dot plot. The three Fed presidents who voted for a 25 basis-point hike in July -- Cleveland's Beth Hammack, Minneapolis' Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan of Dallas -- expressed concerns about the impact of underlying inflation after the June meeting based in part on comments and observations from consumers and businesses in their regions. Warsh's remarks cast doubt on the ⁠new chair's credibility in delivering lower inflation, J.P. Morgan said in the July 29 note, adding that this could increase the urgency for the rest ​of the committee to act on its mandate for price stability. July FOMC resets traders' Fed interest-rate bets Traders are pricing ⁠in a 65.2% chance of a rate hike in September, down from 81% before the policy statement, according to ​the CME Group FedWatch Tool. The futures markets are also pricing in an 82.7% cumulative probability that the funds rate will be higher than the current 3.50%-3.75% by the December FOMC meeting. Related: Fed interest-rate decision rocks Wall Street's inflation fears BofA Global Research forecasts three rate hikes starting ⁠in ​September. Long-standing Fed dove Citigroup maintained its ​forecast for rate cuts in October and December this year and one in January 2027 ​following the July FOMC meeting. Key drivers behind the June PCE drop Questions whether the PCE price index will remain the primary reference tool for monetary policy with no answers as to what will replace it have further heightened market jitters. Headline PCE dropped0.1% month-over-month in June and fell from 4.1% to 3.7% year-over-year. Excluding food and energy, the gauge rose less than forecast. Gasoline prices have risen in July due to military escalation in the Iran War, once again pressuring household budgets and the latest data showed the saving rate fell in June to the lowest level since 2022. Meanwhile the inflation-adjusted GDP increased an annualized 1.5% in the three months through June, lower than the 2.1% consensus. Consumers "looked through the price pressures and they powered on — the question is how much longer they will be able to do that," Barclays Senior U.S. Economist Pooja Sriram told Bloomberg. "Tax refunds have run out and income gains are slowing, so that cushion that we point to is getting smaller in the next quarter." Related: Mortgage rate forecast resets after Fed decision This story was originally published by TheStreet on Aug 1, 2026, where it first appeared in the Fed section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here. View Comments

Investing.com -- The closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran war is prompting companies to raise prices on products including beer, paint, french fries and packaging as commodity and transport costs climb, the Wall Street Journal reported. Boston Beer Company Inc (NYSE:SAM), Sherwin-Williams Co (NYSE:SHW), International Paper (NYSE:IP) and Unilever PLC ADR (NYSE:UL) have raised prices or plan to do so to offset more expensive raw materials. The increases could add to U.S. inflation and complicate the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decisions. Investors had previously expected rate cuts but are now positioning for possible increases following the energy-price shock. Around 20% of the world's oil supply passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the conflict. The waterway also handled large volumes of aluminium, fertiliser and other commodities. U.S. crude futures traded near $85 a barrel on Friday, around 25% higher than when the war began. The average U.S. petrol price has climbed to about $4.11 a gallon from $2.98 at the start of the conflict, the report said. Unilever expects price increases, rather than higher volumes, to lead its sales growth during the second half of the year as commodity costs rise. Sherwin-Williams plans to increase prices by 8% from September 1 to offset higher costs for oil-linked materials. Its shares rose more than 8% after the announcement. Illinois Tool Works Inc (NYSE:ITW) said price increases implemented during the spring quarter had more than covered its higher input costs. Lamb Weston Holdings Inc (NYSE:LW) also raised North American prices after higher oil costs increased transport and edible-oil expenses. Packaging producers face rising costs for plastic, aluminium, recycled cardboard and freight. International Paper, Smurfit WestRock PLC (NYSE:SW) and Packaging Corporation of America (NYSE:PKG) announced price increases in July. The higher prices have supported shares of several manufacturers and consumer-goods companies, but their combined effect could add pressure on household budgets and keep interest rates elevated. Related articles Iran war pushes companies to raise prices on beer, paint and fries Citi pushes back Fed rate cuts to May after blowout January jobs report Goldman expects lower but still attractive stock market returns in 2026 View Comments